Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Idlib Explosions Raise the Stakes

See also The Real Net Effect: The Saudi Regime Tries to Control Social Media
Bahrain Live Coverage: The Regime Plays for Time
Monday's Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Enter the Observers

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1645 GMT: Palestine. Al-Monitor claims, from Palestinian institutions monitoring Israeli prisons, that 15 Palestinian detainees have now been on hunger strike for at least 25 days, with one now on the 63rd day of a fast.

The article asserts that there are now almost 2000 prisoners on hunger strike.

1545 GMT: Syria. Another video of the funeral today in Idlib Province for victims of this morning's regime shelling and mortar fire:

1515 GMT: Kuwait. John Horne writes....

A peaceful protest in Taimaa by "bedoon" (stateless) individuals, calling for basic rights of citizenship, has been attacked by security forces according to reports". Amid a heavy and intimidating police presence, even before the protest began, observers report at least twelve arrests, including several leading activists. Fayez Al-Sultani, the vice-president of the Kuwait Society for Human Rights also claims to have been beaten by police and briefly arrested.

#stateless #bedon resume protesting at #Taimaa (via @a7mad222 ) twitter.com/Sanaoq/status/…

— Sana (@Sanaoq) May 1, 2012

Todays protest is the latest in the long, ongoing fight by the Kuwaiti bedoon for citizenship. A recent report by Refugees International gives further context to the struggle:

As many as 100,000 people living in Kuwait are stateless. Called “bedoon” over the last twelve months thousands have been gathering peacefully in Taima Square to insist that the government recognize their Kuwaiti nationality. Tear gas, rubber bullets, and beatings have all been used to quell the demonstrators.

Although the bedoon lived in Kuwait long before its independence in 1961, they are considered by the authorities as “illegal residents” and refused birth certificates, public schooling, marriage certificates, and the right to peacefully assemble. Bidoun also face barriers to health care; some bidoun can access limited health insurance and others are denied health care altogether.

Most bidoun live in two communities of makeshift housing about 18 miles outside of Kuwait City. The communities are so marginalized that one Kuwaiti national who participated in the demonstrations said, “I didn’t know where Taima Square was, I had to use my GPS.” They must rent accommodations, as they have no right to own, sell, or pass property onto their children upon death. Despite their multi-generational presence in the nation, the bidoun are not recognized as legally residing in Kuwait, and in almost all circumstances, they are not permitted to leave because the government refuses to issue travel documents.

1435 GMT: Syria. An activist on the Turkish border, Tareq Abdelhaq, adds to this morning's report of 10 people killed by mortar and tank fire from regime forces on a village in Idlib Province.

Abdelhaq said 35 people had been wounded, with some carried about 25 kilometres (15 miles) along mountain tracks to receive emergency treatment in refugee camps on the frontier.

"Some are being smuggled over the border to Turkey. They had to carry the wounded and go through the mountains to avoid checkpoints on the road," Abdelhaq said. "One guy died on the way. He was 19 years old and had very bad injuries."

1415 GMT: Syria. A TV crew from Britain's Sky News has been accosted in Damascus, with their equipment seized.

The crew was filming a protest of about 20 activists when, according to Sky's Tim Marshall:

Suddenly guys ran out from the court building with truncheons and guns.... A lot [were] in plain clothes. A uniformed officer with a machine gun approached us and violently ripped the camera away from us. There was a struggle between us and the policeman. He then ran off down the road with it and I subsequently followed the policeman.

More armed men with truncheons later came out towards my two colleagues, who were taken into the court building. I could see them heading towards my colleagues and so I slipped away...to get this news out.

1410 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of a defection battalion in Rastan in Homs Province:

1310 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of regime forces moving through the Damascus suburb of Hammouriyeh today:

1230 GMT: Syria. The Guardian posts claimed footage of the funeral procession of seven victims of this morning's mortar attacks and tank shelling in Idlib Province:

1140 GMT: Saudi Arabia. There is a flutter amongst analysts over a statement by Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal of plans among the six Gulf Co-operation Council nations for "closer political union".

The Financial Times opens with the motive of "Arab fears of the threat from neighbouring Iran", but the real answer may be lower down in the article:

The comments, made two weeks before a Gulf Co-operation Council meeting in Riyadh, reflect increasing momentum towards a bilateral union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, as the island US ally faces growing unrest within its majority Shia community.

Analyst Kristin Diwan comments to EA, "I think the proposed union is a bit more subtle than a full Saudi-Bahrain merger....It seems that the goal is an upgrade or strengthening of the Gulf Cooperation Council to closer coordination yielding a GCC Union. Aside from the semantics, this would appear to mean more intensified cooperation on security, both foreign and domestic. The Saudis seem to be proposing a closer alignment of GCC member states on foreign policy through a "Supreme Gulf Committee". And there is a big emphasis on shared intelligence, and more cooperation on policing, and (interestingly) media policy....

Bahrain is then proposed to be the first "test run" towards this more intensified union.

(Cross-posted from Bahrain Live Coverage)

1115 GMT: Syria. The Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria claim 20 people have already died today at the hands of security forces, including 15 in Idlib Province from "the worst shelling in...villages since the beginning of the Revolution", with mortar attacks and tank fire.

Protest today in Kafaroweid in Idlib Province:

1035 GMT: Syria. Activists of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claim 12 Syrian soldiers have been killed by insurgents in fighting outside a military base in the eastern province of Deir ez Zor.

1000 GMT: Tunisia. Writing for Jadaliyya, Wafa Ben Hassine assesses the political environment:

Tunisia's germinal political landscape today is the polar opposite of what once was. Following the 2010–2011 uprisings, parties were budding everywhere. The number of parties has now reached 118. During the campaign season for the October 23rd elections for the Constituent Assembly, it was near impossible to keep track of them all — Marxists, progressives, Islamists, conservatives, and nationalists of all stripes. Just like most countries that undergo a transformative democratizing revolution (otherwise known as revolutionary fever), the number of parties slowly started dwindling off. Now, it is a matter of survival of the fittest.

The fittest at the present moment is, by all means and measurements, the Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance Party). Ennahda enjoys a level of organization that is unmatched in Tunisia’s political terrain. What holds the party together, for one, is that its main structural pillars were preserved during Ben Ali's regime, in hiding and abroad in exile. Additionally, Ennahda members are highly disciplined, consistently voting in line with the party's political platform. The platform has become a set of beliefs that is shared between all members of the party, serving as a partial representation of their social and religious worldview. Their aqidah (creed) and its connection to their faith dramatically increase their level of political coherence, especially between each other and within the party's political and executive bureaus.The party's electoral campaign was also highly commendable, venturing into the heart of Tunisia and campaigning door-to-door in underdeveloped inland regions where only a few dared to enter.

Ben Hassine adds the caution:

If the (centre-left Congress for the Republic) and (social democraic party) Ettakatol members do not mobilize to fix their respective parties quickly enough, then Ennahda might be left as the only able party standing....The two secularist parties in the Troïka, along with smaller opposition parties, are currently the only check on Ennahda. The reorganization of Ettakatol and CPR will not only help their voter base gravitate towards actuating respective programs, but will serve as a guarantee for a pluralistic Tunisian society.

0859 GMT: Syria. Erika Solomon of Reuters posts an article, "Outgunned Syria Rebels Make Shift to Bombs", which parallels our snap analysis (see 0630 GMT):

"We are starting to get smarter about tactics and use bombs because people are just too poor and we don't have enough rifles," a rebel fighter from the north of Idlib province said last week as he took a break across the border in Turkey.

"It is just no match for the army," said the man, who spoke on condition of anonymity, "So we are trying to focus on the ways we can fight."...

"We are not targeting civilians. We are strictly going against regime targets," said Haitham Qdemati, spokesman for a rebel group called the Syrian Liberation Army. "We're not killers. We're defending ourselves."

0850 GMT: Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims that a mortar attack by regime forces this morning killed 10 people, nine of them from the same family, in a village in Idlib Province.

0830 GMT: Turkey. Wladimir van Wilgenburg reports the creation of a new Islamic Party of Kurdistan, led by Sıdkı Zilan, the lawyer of the Hizbullah faction.

Van Wilgenburg assesses that Hizbullah members "are inspired by the success of Islamic parties in the Middle East". Zilan had told CNN Türk in 2011:

We wish for stable democracy in Kurdistan. More than one actor is needed for democracy. There is only the BDP (Freedom and Democracy Party) which is only one wing [of the political effort] and the AKP (Justice and Development Party) which does not belong here. The party to answer the need is the Hizbullah İlim Group.

Zilan said the party, to be established in October 2012, aims to get votes from religious Kurds. He said the BDP are natural allies with the goal is to organize "Kurds on their own ground", not on the agenda of Ankara.

The Hizbullah fought with the Kurdish insurgency PKK during the 1990s, but Van Wilgenburg believes they are now open to cooperation with the more secular pro-PKK party BDP.

0630 GMT: Syria. We begin with a follow-up on Monday's twin explosions in Idlib, the northwestern town near the Turkish border.

Syrian State media carry graphic photos and report that at least eight people died in the blasts, while the opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights puts the toll at 20, most of whom were from the security forces.

The incidents have a political impact beyond the immediacy of the deaths. There have been deadly bombs in recent months from Damascus to Aleppo. In all those cases, however, the origin is disputed --- the regime blames "terrorist groups", while insurgents deny responsibility and assert that President Assad's men staged the explosions to blacken the opposition.

This time the insurgents are not issuing a denial. Indeed, given the quick emergence of the Syrian Observatory's statement, "Two huge explosions took place near two security buildings, one of which belongs to the air force intelligence, and the other to the military security", it appears that elements of the opposition are more than happy to claim the attacks.

Even as the first waves of 300 United Nations observers enter Syria, the bombs put another question mark over any declaration of a "cease-fire". Even if some in the opposition are unhappy with the tactics, they are not stepping up to block the escalation in insurgency.