US Politics Analysis: How Rick Santorum Can Defeat Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum's campaign ad attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for supporting "Obamacare"

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Of the ten contests fought by Republican contenders for the President on "Super Tuesday", Mitt Romney won six; including, even if by a small margin, the crucial state of Ohio. Those victories, aided by some organisational errors by his rival candidates in registering in time for certain votes –-- including the statewide ballot in Virginia –-- meant Romney woke up Wednesday morning with a healthy lead in delegates.

But despite those positive signs for a Romney presidential run, the main story to emerge from Super Tuesday is that, yet again, the former Massachusetts Governor failed to seize the opportunity to secure the nomination. Yet again, the conservative base of his own party, even in most of the states he won, signalled they do not want Mitt Romney to be their candidate.

That has not been a fatal affliction for the Romney campaign, so far, because his conservative opponents have failed to coalesce behind one nominee. But the result in Virginia, without Gingrich or Santorum on the ballot, brought the health alert. If Romney only managed to beat Ron Paul by a 59-41 margin, what would happen in a straight-up contest with Santorum or Gingrich?

That will not happen on Saturday in Kansas, or on Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi; however, if the results in those states, especially the South, go against Gingrich, there is a chance that he will retire from the contest. If he does, and with the good grace to endorse his fellow conservative Santorum, then Mitt Romney's current betting price --- 84% probability of being the next GOP Presidential candidate --- will tumble.

And with good reason. The Romney campaign released a well-publicised memo on Wednesday morning, claiming to show that it was mathematically impossible for Santorum or Gingrich to garner the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination. But that reasoning assumed that Gingrich stays in the race after next Tuesday, thereby splitting the conservative vote .

If Gingrich out of the race, and if Santorum manages to win the support of most ex-Gingrich voters, the maths change dramatically. Take a look at New York's primary on 24 April.

In New York, at-large delegates are awarded proportionally according to the state-wide ballot. If one candidate receives 50% of the vote, New York becomes a winner-take-all prize. Now it is tough for Santorum to get that statewide majority, but it becomes possible if Gingrich is no longer in the race.

It is a similar story in California, which votes in early June to award its 169 delegates. In the latest poll, Santorum only trails Romney by 28-22%, with Gingrich taking 17%. Romney will win some of the districts, but Santorum has a chance to win a lot more with Gingrich gone.

Of course, the continuing candidacy of Ron Paul will hurt Santorum's chances of making some of these bigger-than-expected gains, but here's another reminder: Santorum does not necessarily need 50% of the delegates at the National Convention in August to win the nomination. If Romney does not have a majority on the first round of voting --- and assuming he does not make some kind of Faustian bargain with Ron Paul to create one --- then the delegates bound to Gingrich are almost certain to give the nomination to Santorum on a second-round ballot.

Santorum's biggest advantage over Romney in these next months will be his concentrated attack on the "Big Government" philosophy behind President Obama's economic policies, exemplified in the health care proposals. Santorum can rally Republicans behind the banner of individual freedom in a way that Romney cannot. If this election year is all about the economy, Santorum is beginning to articulate a positive vision of personal economic liberty that transcends the numbers of high unemployment and low growth.

Call it a Republican version of "hope and change". In a speech in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio on Monday, Santorum told a receptive audience, "Do you believe in freedom, or in government control? That's the central issue in this race." He continued the theme by maintaining "Obamacare" is “usurping your rights. It is creating a culture of dependency. Every single American will be dependent on government, thanks to ObamaCare. There is no more important issue in this race. It magnifies all that is wrong with what this president is trying to do." To make sure his listeners understood the connection, Santorum concluded, "This race is coming down to the economy, the deficit and control of your life, which is ObamaCare."

Twenty-four hours later in Steubenville, as the Ohio count was taking place, Santorum proclaimed:

We have people who believe that America’s best days are behind us. They believe that it’s no longer possible for free enterprise, a free economy, and free people to be able to build strong communities and families and be able to provide for themselves and their neighbors. No, we now need an increasingly powerful federal government to do this for us. (Audience boos.)

The reason that Karen and I ultimately decided to get into this race was because of that issue, and in particular one issue. I’ve said it almost every stump speech I’ve given. If it wasn’t for one particular issue that to me breaks the camel’s back with respect to liberty in this country, and that is the issue of Obamacare.

This is the message Santorum is taking to Alabama and Mississippi, with his SuperPAC airing a 30-second commercial that criticises both Gingrich and Romney for supporting the individual mandate (see top of entry).

Before Ohio, Santorum let his campaign drift from this winning strategy, as he was distracted by social issues. Now he appears to be back, both barrels fully loaded for an assault on the alleged Big Government principles behind "Obamacare", and the assurance that he is the only Republican candidate in November's election who can effectively criticise the President Obama over his health care reforms.

There is much that can go wrong with this theory, but a recent study of why Democrats lost so heavily in the 2010 Congressional elections should make Romney supporters wonder if they backed the right candidate. The study contends that Democratic incumbents who voted for healthcare reforms lost 5.8% of their vote as a result. Even if some of the heat has been drawn from the issue after two years, Santorum can harness the residual resentment of Republicans with a message that eulogises the perennial conservative defense of personal liberty>

But first Santorum has to convince the voters in Alabama and Mississippi that he, and not Newt Gingrich, is the best conservative hope against President Obama in November.