The Latest from Iran (14 February): Watching for Protests

See also Iran Feature: Two Sisters Try to Reach Their Country with Pop Music
The Latest from Iran (13 February): The Economic Squeeze

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"Strong and Steadfast"2115 GMT: All the President's Men. The trial of Abbas Ghaffari and Mehdi Mohagheghi, both on the President's staff and accused of being in the "deviant current", has begun.

Ghaffari, the Friday Prayer leader for Ahmadinejad's office, and Mohagheghi was arrested last year and charged with "sorcery", "exorcism", and "blasphemy".

2025 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Minister of Science and Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo has made an implicit threat against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in the battle for control of Islamic Azad University.

Daneshjoo said that the Supreme Cultural Council of the Revolution will decide on several conditions that Rafsanjani has set over the University, adding that a speedy decision is necessary.

One of the clashes is over Rafsanjani's refusal to sign the mandate naming Daneshjoo's brother Farhad, appointed by President Ahmadinejad, as head of the University.

2015 GMT: Oil Watch. So what happened to the Parliamentary threat to cut off oil exports to Europe, which never materialised despite three weeks of threats?

MP Omidvar Rezaie claims that, while a bill has not been received by the Majlis, committees are examining all aspects, and the measure will be adopted after approval by all "nezam" (system) officials --- i.e., the Supreme Leader.

Iranian authorities have threatened the suspension as a pre-emptory retaliation against the European Union's 23 January decision to bar imports of Iranian crude from 1 July.

1725 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Earlier we reported on President Ahmadinejad's speech to an audience of 5000 young Government advisors, as he denounced critics: "They have caused the currency turmoil by themselves, seizing 100s of billions and accusing the Government."

We should also add that, according to Khabar Online, many in the crowd booed when an official praised the President's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, with some leaving the meeting.

1505 GMT: Press Watch. Reliable sources, including one Iranian journalist, have told Global Voices that several Iranian activists and journalists have received an e-mail threatening that they will be punished according to the “Islamic Punishment” law. The message, sent anonymously, claims that there is information and documents implicating a list of people who are working “for the goals of foreigners” and who support seditious activity.

1450 GMT: Protest Watch. BBC Persian has reported people chanting slogans at Vanak Square as well as Vali-e Asr Avenue in Tehran.

An activist claims that clashes have occurred beteewn protesters and security forces in Enghelab Square, with a few arrests.

1420 GMT: Protest Watch. Activist website Rahsa News is claiming at least six arrests, including three women, at Vali-e Asr Square in Tehran.

Thomas Erdbrink tweets, "VPNs [Virtual Private Networks] turned off just now --- Twitter no longer accessible the usual way, still no serious reports of protests though."

1400 GMT: Protest Watch. Thomas Erdbrink tweets, "A lot of police on Tehran streets (usual during possible demos) and 'silent' protesters roaming the pavements --- for now no slogans."

1312 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Thai Front). An Iranian man seriously wounded himself in Bangkok today when the bomb he was carrying exploded and blew one of his legs off, according to police and government officials.

The officials would not comment on any possible connection with a wider group. The blast came came a day after bombs targeted Israeli embassy staff in India and Georgia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of being behind the attacks. Iranian officials denied the allegation.

1307 GMT: Protest Watch. An activist reports about the security presence in Tehran, "Streets leading to Enghelab Ave closed down by security forces and there's a large number of them in those areas. On Taleghani Threeway, near Art Academy, there are buses with special forces. Security forces have filled the vicinity. There is also a large presence of security forces in Hafte Tir Square in Tehran."

1204 GMT: Protest Watch. BBC Persian is reporting a large number of police vehicles in some major streets in Tehran.

1200 GMT: Elections Watch. In an interview with Khabar Online, MP Ali Abbaspour, part of a breakaway conservative faction in the Parliamentary elections, has said the group will post its full list of candidates soon. He said there should be a "serious competition" for the votes of the people.

Abbaspour and fellow MPs Ali Motahari and Hamidreza Katouzian launched the faction after they were omitted from the list of candidates for the Unity Front, the main conservative/principlist group.

1155 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. In a speech today, President Ahmadinejad has assailed critics who have accused the Government, through mismanagement or manipulation, of causing the currency crisis.

1010 GMT: Protest Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post reports from Tehran, "For now E-mail is working, SMS (text) works as do cell phones."

Erdbrink also notes a sign of the state of the economy, "Valentine's Day inflation....Roses have become 50 percent more expensive compared to last year."

0740 GMT: Cartoon of the Day. Nikahang Kowsar combines protests --- the rooftap chants of "Allahu Akbar" --- and Valentine's Day in his tribute to President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei. Kowsar's mouse comments, "Their pleasure has been disturbed":

0734 GMT: Considering War and Peace. An extract from an address by political philosopher Ramin Jahanbegloo, now living in Toronto, to the Iranian-Canadian Congress:

Democracy cannot be attained in Iran by ways of war, because democracy attained by violence is tantamount to a defeat....The more we sweat in nonviolence the less we bleed in violence.

0730 GMT: Elections Watch. The Scholars and Students Society of Qom has repeatedly issued a statement that non-participation in the Parliamentary elections on 2 March is a "religious duty".

0710 GMT: Justice Watch. It appears that Saeed Mortazavi --- former Tehran Prosecutor General, now advisor to President Ahmadinejad --- will not be held to account for alleged responsibility for the abuses and deaths in the Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009.

Iran Prosecutor General Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei said on Monday that the prosecution of Mortazavi has been dropped.

Mortazavi was officially suspended last year from his duties for his possible role in the Kahrizak case, in which three detainees died and many others suffered abuse, but he has continued to work in the President's office.

0630 GMT: A straightforward start today --- it is 25 Bahman in Iran, and groups and activists inside and outside the country have put out calls for people to show public opposition to the regime.

A year ago, tens of thousands did just that, but the regime was making its own moves, sweeping up hundreds and imposing strict house arrests on Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. While there were smaller marches over the next month, 14 February 2011 was the last significant show of protest in the Islamic Republic.

I am not expecting a renewal today. EA sources in Iran have reported a mood of resignation, as people battle economic woes as well as the crackdown by the authorities. The decapitation of the opposition leadership --- through detentions, house arrests, and intimidation --- and the breaking of communications has made organisation difficult, if not impossible.