Iran Election Guide

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Monday
Jan092012

The Latest from Iran (9 January): A Sideshow in Latin America


2125 GMT: Sanctions Watch. On the eve of a visit by US Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner to China, Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai has distanced Beijing from further sanctions on Iran.

Cui said China supports global nonproliferation efforts but continued, “The normal trade relations and energy cooperation between China and Iran have nothing to do with the nuclear issue. We should not mix issues of different natures, and China’s legitimate concerns and demands should be respected.”

Chinese imports of Iranian oil reached a high of around 617,000 barrels per day in November 2011, a third of Tehran's exports. However, Beijing has halved the imports this year amidst a dispute over payment arrangements.

2115 GMT: You Can Never Start 'Em Too Young. Shargh claims that the the authorities are launching "Chastity and Hijab" programmes in kindergartens.

2107 GMT: A Message for the Supreme Leader? Former Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Alaei has spoken about the uprising of 9 January 1978 in Qom, suggesting that others should learn from the Shah's experience.

After the uprising, the Shah's security forces put political opponents under house arrest and shot dissenters, but of course this ultimately failed preserve the monarch's throne.

So who are the "others" whom Alaei thinks should learn from the historical example?

2100 GMT: Currency Watch. Khabar Online reports the weakening Iranian currency has caused huge losses for Iranian importers, with many goods remaining on board.

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activists report National-Religious Party activist Mahmoud Dordkeshan has been released after a day in detention.

1750 GMT: Bank Fraud Watch. Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei has denied reports of the release of Hamid Pourmohammadi, the Deputy Head of the Central Bank, over hte $2.6 billion bank fraud.

Mohseni Ejei said he could not comment on the arrest of a Deputy Minister of Industry (see 0730 GMT), except that this was related to financial fraud. Fars claimed that the "deviant current" around President Ahmadinejad ordered the detention.

1740 GMT: Espionage Watch. US National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor has said that accusations of spying against Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, an Iranian-American reportedly sentenced to death in the preliminary verdict of a Revolutionary Court (see 0830 GMT), are false.

Vietor said that if the reports of the sentence are true, the White House will work with American partners "to convey our condemnation to the Iranian government".

1730 GMT: Power Cut. Mohammad Kabiri, the Vice President of Iran's Electricity Industry Syndicate, has said that if the Government does not pay its 5 trillion Toman ($3.3 billion) debt to power companies, the 40% of power plants face closure.

1715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Physician and blogger Mehdi Khazali has been detained again, reportedly suffering injuries to his hands and teeth as security agents seized him.

Khazali has been imprisoned on two other occasions since the 2009 Presidential election and was free on $180,000 bail. He was prohibited from leaving the country last week and his website was filtered yesterday.

1655 GMT: Economy Watch. An EA correspondent goes behind the headlines of today's speech by the Supreme Leader:

The most interesting news is Khamenei's personal intervention when he rejected the attempt by Central Bank head [Mahmoud] Bahmani to prepare people to endure hardships for two years to come because of sanctions.

Khamenei denied that Bahmani's allusion that that people faced the same situation as Shaab Abi Taleb [when the Prophet and his followers were cut off by a boycott for three years]. Instead, Khamenei invoked the Battle of Khaybar and the Battle of Badr [both victories for Mohammad].

1633 GMT: Elections Watch. Fars is trying once more to put out the message that reformists will join the Parliamentary elections in March through a claimed interview with Rasoul Montajabnia, the deputy head of the Etemade Melli Party. According to Fars, Montajabnia said reformists are opposed to a boycott and it is Iran's enemies who are seeking low turnout for the polls. Montajabnia supposedly said that although Etemade Melli will not present its own list of candidates, some of its members are running as independents.

Montajabania has denied earlier remarks attributed to him by Fars.

Mehr pushes remarks by reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz, of the Hambastegi Party, that those reformists standing are attempting to co-ordinate their campaigning.

However, ILNA reports that the reformist minority in Parliament will not be presenting or endorsing any list of candidates for the elections, even if many reformists are participating.

1623 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. The Supreme Leader has declared that Western sanctions have proven futile. Claiming there are more victories on the horizon for Iran, he said,"[The West is] mistaken and will never achieve [its] goal. The Iranian nation has chosen this victorious path with insight and has made great sacrifices and forfeited the blood of its loved ones to tread this path."

Ayatollah Khamenei also had an upbeat message for March's Parliamentary elections, claiming that the Iranian people would show their presence even though "hegemonic powers and their pawns have been making efforts to reduce" the turnout.

1607 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Fazel Mousavi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, supervising Government activity, has said the Majlis will deal with four complaints against President Ahmadinejad, over the Government's financial activity and the budget, before March's elections.

1531 GMT: Currency Watch. Shargh reports, and journalist Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran confirms, that the word "dollar" has been filtered in text messages.

The Iranian rial has fallen slightly to 16900:1 vs. the US $, about 6% away from its low point of 17800:1 last week. Khabar Online says the rate is 17000:1 at some traders. Even Fars is publishing hte 17000:1 rate, quoting traders that the Central Bank's mandated "open market" level of 14000:1 is a "quagmire".

Mehr reports that merchants are withholding price tags because of the sudden currency changes and that people have started hoarding goods as wholesalers make quick profits. Prices for airline tickets have risen 35% because of the currency crisis.

Trying to ease the crisis, the Central Bank has raised interest on deposits.

Speculation is growing that Central Bank head Mahmoud Bahmani will soon replaced, especially as he did not attend a discussion among Government officials and representatives from teh private sector. Bahmani also was absent from a Parliamentary special session on Sunday. Shafaf and Raja News name possible successors for Bahmani as Vice President Hamid Baghaei --- despite his formal suspension by an administrative court for mismanagement --- Deputy Minister of Economy Mohammad Reza Farzin, or Ali Divandari, the managing director of Bank Mellat.

1522 GMT: Oil Watch. Uskowi on Iran reports that India plans to pay for imported Iranian crude oil with a line of credit in rupees, to be used by Tehran to purchase "non-strategic" Indian commodities. The Press Trust of India reported that a team of Indian officials would visit Iran on 16 January to resolve the payment issue.

Payments from an Asian currency basket by Delhi, which currently imports 370,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude oil, were suspended by the Indian Central Bank at the start of 2011. After months of negotiations, India arranged to use Turkey as a conduit but this will end when new US sanctions against foreign banks transferring funds through the Central Bank of Iran take effect.

The news may not be all good for Iran, however. A member of Parliament's Energy Committee says the country's foreign currency reserves will drop 20% with the arrangement.

1407 GMT: Protest Watch. Green Voice of Freedom highlight the protest graffiti appearing on Iranian banknotes and in public spaces, ahead of the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on 25 Bahman (14 February).

1404 GMT: At the Movies. The guilds of actors, directors, screenwriters, film editors and 20 other relevant societies have protested the banning of the House of Cinema, Iran's leading society for filmmakers by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

"We, the guilds of cineastes, deem the Iranian House of Cinema as our legal house," the signaotries wrote. "We approved the IHC chapter and according to the country's law, its general assembly is empowered to make any amendment to the chapter."

They added, "Mr. Minister! You have blundered. This is the cultural arena, which will be playing host to you for a few days. By the way, where did you learn such guest manners?"

0830 GMT: Espionage Watch. Fars reports that Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, the Iranian-American detained in August and accused of spying for the CIA, has been sentenced to death in a preliminary verdict handed down by a Revolutionary Court.

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A Revolutionary Court has sentenced political activist Asal Esmaeilzadeh to four months in prison, with eight months suspended, for “propaganda against the regime” and “gathering and colluding” against authorities.

Esmaeilzadeh was arrested in Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, with activists Peyman Aref and Sharar Konoor Tabrizi, as they prayed at Neda Agha Soltan’s grave. Esmaeilzadeh was also arrested by plainclothes agents in her home in May 2011 and later released on $100,000 bail.

0750 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The Wall Street Journal profiles the trip of US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to China and Japan, seeking support for tighter sanctions.

Japanese officials indicated last week that, despite concerns, they were making preparations for reduced oil imports from Tehran. China, while holding out publicly against stricter economic measures, has halved its imports in the last two months because of a dispute over payment arrangements with Tehran.

0740 GMT: CyberWatch. The sites of two prominent regime critics, Mohammad Reza Nourizad and physician Mehdi Khazali, have been filtered.

Both men have had lengthy stays in prison after the 2009 Presidential election, but both have maintained their dissent, Nourizad through open letters to the Supreme Leader and Khazali through entries on his blog.

0730 GMT: Elections Watch. Intrigue and allegations to start the day....

Fars, continuing its campaign against President Ahmadinejad's inner circle, claims that the "deviant current" is trying to remove Ahmad Mortazavi and replace him with Ruhollah Ahmadzadeh, who was head of Iran's Culture, Heritage, and Tourism Organization until last week.

Zendegi News, linked to Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, claims that the "deviant current" has prompted the detention of the Deputy Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade.

And Mohammad Taghi Vaezi, the Supreme Leader's representative in Zanjan province, has been dismissed without any stated reason.

0540 GMT: Dogs of War Story of the Day. Press TV pushes an interview with "Middle East expert" Ismail Salami. The analysis is entertaining enough, with "a comprehensive plan to topple the Islamic government of Iran via Washington's efforts to redefine its war in Iraq", including the US conspiracies of assassinations and bombings, and "its push to disintegrate the Syrian regime".

The headline is even better, however: "US Rebreeding Dogs of War on Iran". And the illustration is best of all:

0520 GMT: The reader who found the real stories in Iran too darned difficult had a choice of diversions on Sunday. International media such as Reuters served up Tehran's propaganda over the Bushehr nuclear plant and the enrichment facility at Fordoo as new, significant news, while Iran countered with the pronouncement that several people had been arrested as American spies in an effort to manipulate the forthcoming Parliamentary elections.

With President Ahmadinejad beginning a four-nation tour in Venezuela, today's diversion is likely to be Latin America. There is an importance in Iran's political and economic links with the continent --- see the opening to yesterday's coverage --- but don't expect coverage to get to the heart of this. Instead, look for Iranian State media, or at least the media favourable to Ahmadinejad, to play the President's international reputation, while US outlets will chunter about the American-Iranian battle for the region. There is also the bonus of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's rhetoric, which he offered on Sunday:

A spokesman or spokeswoman in Washington from the State Department or the White House said it was not convenient for any country to get close to Iran. Well, the truth is, it made you laugh. 

They're not going to be able to dominate this world. Forget about it (President Barack) Obama, forget about it. It would be better to think about the problems in your country, which are many.

IRNA and Press TV offer brief previews of "cooperation agreements" this morning, ahead of Ahmadinejad's meeting with  Chavez later today, but it is the Americans who have tried to steal the show. The US State Department announced that Washington has ordered the expulsion of Venezuela's Consul General in Miami, Livia Acosta Noguera, in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to target sensitive US facilities with cyber attacks.

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