The Latest from Iran (6 January): Squeezing the Regime

Supreme Leader: "We will break the neck of boycotters" / Journalist: "Take care of your own neck, Haji" (Cartoon: Nikahang Kowsar)

---

2100 GMT: Elections Watch. Gholam-Hossein Haddad-Adel, former Speaker of Parliament and a member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle, has made conciliatory noises about rivals in the Islamic Constancy Front, led by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. Haddad-Adel, linked to the Unity Front preparing for the Parliamentary elections in March, said, "We do not disagree with our friends in the Constancy Front. There may be difference in preferences but we are united on principles."

2054 GMT: The Battle Within. MP Ahmad Tavakoli, who is leading the campaign to interrogate the President, has given an indication of the challenges he will put to Ahmadinejad. He asks why the President's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has taken 96 foreign trips in five years.

2039 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day (with a Twist). Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, the commander of the Revolution Guards naval forces, has declared that the world cannot last 24 hours without Persian Gulf oil: “Today, out of the 1,300 billion barrels of oil in the world, 800 billion barrels are in the Persian Gulf.”

On the surface, that is just more of the banter during Iran's recent naval exercise, raising the scare that Tehran could close the Straits of Hormuz. But Fadavi's statement should now be seen in the context of a much more tangible situation: Iran, facing the prospect of European and Asian countries cutting back and even banning import of Tehran's oil, is sending out blunt messages to stave off that threat.

2019 GMT: Social Media Watch. Daneshjoo News reports that Babol University of Science and Technology has banned students from maintaining Facebook accounts.

1519 GMT: A Question. Why did the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Reza Jafari, meet ayatollahs in Qom on Thursday? Were the talks concerned with "promoting the scientific level of universities run by the IRGC", as Mehr reports? Or is it possible that the military commander and the clerics were discussing an alliance behind the Supreme Leader for the March elections?

1406 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. A correspondent gives us the highlights of today's Friday Prayer, delivered by Hojatoleslam Kazem Siddighi: "Iraqis celebrated the withdrawal of Americans and should keep unity." Press TV adds this line: “To take revenge on Iraqis for their joy over the withdrawal of the occupying [American] forces, the US commissioned consecutive bombings and killings in Iraq in order to [also] convey that the Americans were the source of peace in the country and that their withdrawal created instability."

Closer to home, Iran's naval manouevres were a sign of "splendour" and "power". And, speaking of past and future elections, Sedighi said that although the "sedition" claiming fraud in the 2009 Presidential vote had failed, it would be attempted again. No matter: "people will defend free elections against the enemy".

1349 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Etedaal has joined Jam-e Jam and Alef in reporting that President Ahmadinejad has been summoned to Parliament for questioning next Tuesday.

1340 GMT: Economy Watch. Etedaal writes that, in reaction to the currency crisis, hoarding of goods has started. Retailers are complaining about not receiving goods, from batteries to paper, from wholesalers; food production has stopped in place because of a cardboard shortage.

Mehr reports that, after subsidy cuts, doctors have turned to selling mobile phones and driving taxis to make ends meet.

Meanwhile, the website reports, the Government is subsidising luxury car importers indirectly with 262 billion Toman (about $165 million) amidst the currency crisis.

1059 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Meeting pro-Ahmadinejad bloggers, the President's senior advisor Ali Akbar Javanfekr has said the "big idol" to be denounced is the person who talked first of the "deviant current", the label often used to stigmatise Ahmadinejad's inner circle.

Javanfekr said, despite reports and the President's own warnings, that the Ahmadinejad team does not have special documents exposing the wrongdoings of political opponents.

1039 GMT: Loyalty Watch. Ayatollah Gholamali Bushehri, the Supreme Leader's representative in Bushehr has said that the Islamic Republic's elections are the "healthiest in the world".

Rouhollah Hosseinian of the Islamic Constancy Front has said that changing Iran's system of velayat-e faqih (clerical supremacy) into monarchy, republic, or another form of rule hurts society.

The Constancy Front is in competition with other conservative and principlist groups ahead of March's Parliamentary elections.

0939 GMT: Protest Watch. Radio Free Europe features the statement by the Mothers of Mourning, the women who gathered in Laleh Park after the 2009 election to protest killings, abuses, and detentions.

Asking the question, "Who Really Endangers National Security, Mothers or Rulers?", the group identifies seven members and supporters who have been sentenced to prison in recent months.

0937 GMT: CyberWatch. The Wall Street Journal posts the news --- featured in EA yesterday --- of the regime's crackdown on Internet access as Iran prepares a "clean" Intranet detached from the Worldwide Web.

0935 GMT: Currency Watch. In an interview with Mehr, the head of the Central Bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, has assured that the Bank has a series of measures to bring "balance" and "stability" to the Iranian currency, but he said it was not advisable to announce these in the media.

0925 GMT: Another Move for Nuclear Talks? It looks like pro-Ahmadinejad State news agency IRNA is pushing the resumption of talks over Iran's nuclear programme. Following the announcement that Tehran is ready to resume discussions with the "5+1" (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China), IRNA's lead story is about "Austrian political observers" who believe negotiations are preferable to the West "throwing missiles" at Iran's recent naval manouevres.

President Ahmadinejad tried to open consideration of talks in September when he was in New York, declaring that Tehran would give up enrichment if it had an assured supply of uranium, but neither the US nor others within the Iranian regime publicly endorsed the statement.

0915 GMT: Revisiting the 2009 Elections. Both Alef and Khabar Online feature the attempt of Tehran Governor Morteza Tamaddon to secure the legitimacy of the 2009 Presidential election through his re-telling of its aftermath.

A rather dry account is enlivened by Tamaddon's attack on 2009 Presidential candidate and opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, now under house arrest. Tamaddon claims that he met Karroubi in mid-July to establish the objections to the election, but the candidate could only cite the distribution of retirement funds and rural insurance. The Governor responded that a State's provision of welfare was not "fraud" for the election, and Karroubi's response was "silence".

Despite this easy demolition of his opponent, Tamaddon maintains that Karroubi and fellow candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi were still threats as the heads of sedition and "organised street brawls", backed by foreign media like the Voice of America.

All of this should be seen not only as the continued trashing of an opposition within Iran, but as a justification of the forthcoming Parliamentary elections as legitimate and beyond question. After the rather colourful passage about Karroubi, Tamaddon goes into a lengthy explanation of the procedures and the "education" of the voter that will ensure the regime's authority, whoever triumphs.

0825 GMT: Currency Watch. Now that it has broken its silence over the currency crisis, proclaiming that the US dollar has fallen against the Iranian rial, State news agency IRNA can announce that Parliament's Article 90 Commission, which oversees Government activity, will meet next week to discuss "market fluctuations" in the currency.

0805 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. In case you thought it was safe after last week's propaganda and hyperbole over Iranian naval and missile exercises in the Persian Gulf....

The Associated Press features the declaration in Iranian media of new exercises in the Strait of Hormuz in February, with Revolutionary Guards naval commander Admiral Ali Fadavi the seventh staging of an annual drill, "The Great Prophet".

0630 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. And now today's big mystery on the political front....

Alef has now joined Jam-e Jam in reporting that, after months of effort, President Ahmadinejad will be brought before Parliament for questioning next Tuesday. If Ahmadinejad cannot fend off his critics in the interrogation, this could be the first step towards an attempt at impeachment.

The mystery is that the story is not being carried elsewhere in Iranian media. So are Jam-e Jam and Alef, linked to Ahmadinejad's leading opponent Ahmad Tavakoli, making up the big news? Or are others trying to hide it?

0620 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Beyond the terrible, misleading headline, "Iranians Brace for War", The Washington Post has a useful snapshot article on the economic situation in Tehran:

Economists and businessmen say that after years of erratic economic policies by the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, each new round of sanctions aimed at Iran’s key oil income increases fears of an overall economic meltdown.

“It’s basic economic law,” said Jamshid Edalatian, a retired professor of economics, former banker and member of Iran’s chamber of commerce. “When people start worrying about the future, they start buying strong currencies to use in difficult times, and right now everybody is baffled and confused over the future.”

Confusion abounded this week in the Paytakht shopping center, which is Tehran’s main computer bazaar. The price of the Apple iPhone 4S, reexported from nearby Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and highly prized by many young Iranians, had surged, like most other imported products. The phone now costs 35 percent more.

The money changer involved in most of the merchants’ purchases from Dubai also had disappeared with more than a million of their dollars after the rial suddenly collapsed. “Nobody is buying or selling,” said Nader Kamali, who owns a cellphone shop. “How can we live like this?”

The pain extends to the country’s large industries. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, high prices for commodities and raw materials, caused by the rial’s plunge, have led to the closure of 50 percent of businesses in the biggest industrial zone near Tehran.

0600 GMT: There will be a respite in the currency crisis today --- foreign exchanges are closed for the Iranian weekend. The posted rate of the Rial v. the US dollar is 15980:1. The Iranian currency is still sharply lower than last month but, for the moment, it is not touching Monday's low point of 17800:1.

However, there is unlikely to be a let-up of pressure on the regime. This week has seen an escalation of the US-led strategy to squeeze Iran's economy through sanctions, particularly on the energy sector. After weeks of discussions and arrangements for alternative suppliers, European Union governments have reportedly agreed in principle to the cut-off of oil imports from Iran. The decision will be announced on 30 January at a Foreign Ministers' meeting.

It appears that, after months of negotiations and no small amount of pressure, Washington is also moving South Korea and Japan towards restrictions on their imports. Sources said South Korean and US officials will seek to agree the next steps later this month, while a Japanese government official confirmed Thursday that Tokyo is likely to reduce oil from Iran "substantially", though it hopes to avoid an embargo. Saudi Arabian officials indicated this week that they are providing the necessary back-up for these measures, providing an alternative for the Iranian supply to the European and Asian markets.

Beyond sanctions, China is also causing an energy headache for Tehran, at least in the short-term. A dispute over payment arrangements has led Sinopec, the country's largest refiner, to halve its import of oil from Iran for the second straight month.

None of this will be an overnight hammer on the regime. The Europeans are likely to take months before implementing their ban. Japan, like Turkey, will seek a waiver from US authorities --- staving off the threat of American measures against Japanese firms who trade with Tehran --- to maintain a level of imports from Iran, albeit with the promise of a long-term reduction.

It does appears, however, that the American strategy of operating bilaterally, rather than through the United Nations, to tighten the binds on Tehran is bringing results. And while sanctions are not the primary reason for Iran's current economic difficulties --- see EA's analysis by Siamak Namazi this morning --- they will not any consolation for the regime on a currency-free Friday.