Iran Election Guide

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Sunday
Jan012012

The Latest from Iran (1 January): Let the Campaigning (and In-Fighting) Begin....

See also The Latest from Iran (31 December): Where are the Reformists for the Elections?


1925 GMT: Currency Watch. The head of the Central Bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, amidst uncertainty over the sinking Iranian currency, told the annual meeting of the Bank that $17 billion of reserves had been distributed among non-Government banks from March 2010 to March 2011.

1915 GMT: Sedition Watch (House Arrests & Rafsanjani Edition). The Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Saeedi, has launched a sweeping attack with a telling admission: "We cannot sentence Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi", held under strict house arrest since February, "because they have supporters, especially among clerics".

Saeedi, talking about the "silent supporters" of seditionists, also slapped at former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, referring to him as the "grey man" within the regime. (An EA correspondent notes that this is a reference to "The Red Eminence, The Grey Eminences" by Akbar Ganji, claiming Rafsanjani's involvement in the "Chain Murders" of the 1990s.

1705 GMT: Currency Watch. The big economic story of the day is not President Ahmadinejad's appearance at the Central Bank meeting but one ignored by Iranian State media.

The Iranian rial has fallen almost 5% today vs. the US dollar, reaching a historic low of 16050:1.

Khabar Online reports that many foreign exchanges shut this afternoon, preferring to hold their dollars in anticipation that the rial would near the 17000:1 mark.

Only three months ago, the Central Bank was trying to set a "red line" of 13000:1. That effort failed, with the rial tumbling to 15390:1 on 21 December. The head of the Bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, told a Parliamentary session that foreign currency would be injected into the market, halting the slide for 10 days but failing to strengthen the rial.

1700 GMT: Mahmoud Zirakchianzadeh, the head of Iran's Offshore Oil Company, has said Tehran will launch full-scale unilateral development of the disputed offshore Arash gas field in the Persian Gulf if Kuwait does not respond to an offer of joint development.

1655 GMT: Missing the Point. A follow-up on our previous item about President Ahmadinejad's declaration of reforms of the Iranian banking system....

In a telling example of Western media's perspective, the BBC misses the story, preferring instead to pull out this rhetoric in the penultimate paragraph of State news agency IRNA's English-language report, "The [Central Bank] is the backbone of the country in facing enemy pressures and it should be so powerful, self-confident and firm in thwarting enemy plans," to create another narrative, "Iran President Ahmadinejad Condemns US Banking Sanctions".

To be fair, the diversionary spin is not confined to the BBC --- IRNA puts out some smoke in its final paragraph: "Ahmadinejad said there is no special economic problem in the country and the economic indices have improved compared to the past."

1645 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. President Ahmadinejad, at the annual meeting of the Central Bank and in a year marked by the $2.6 billion bank fraud and currency issues, has promised reform of the banking system by the end of the Iranian year (March 2012).

1615 GMT: The Reformists Are Coming! The Reformists are Coming! So yell Fars and Mehr....

Facing a lack of evidence so far of reformists applying for candidacy in March's Parliamentary elections, Fars claims from its "political reporter" that a coalition of 14 reformist parties and organisations, "The Democracy Front" , will convene for a meeting on 16 January, presumably to prepare for the elections. The website promises, "Further news will be published subsequently."

Mehr has more information. It says that MP Mostafa Kavakebian, the most prominent reformist to defy the general call and declare intent to stand in the elections, Majid Mohtashami, General Secretary of the Freedom Party; and six other members of the Freedom Party announced plans in a press conference. Other groups in the front include the National Unity Party of Iran, the Center for Iranian Culture Association, and the Association of Graduates of West Azarbaijan.

1555 GMT: Today's Bluster. Back from a holiday break to find the Iranian military's showpiece propaganda on the eighth day of its 10-day naval exercise: a radar-evading, medium-range missile "equipped with state-of-the-art technology and a built-in system that enables it to thwart jammers", according to Rear Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi.

Despite some ratcheting-down in the Iranian chest-thumping in the last 48 hours --- a long-range missile has not materialised, after a false report Saturday morning, and the talk of closing the Straits of Hormuz has been pulled back --- the Associated Press still proclaims "Iran's latest show of strength in the face of mounting international criticism over its controversial nuclear program".

0955 GMT: Watching the Guards. Muhammad Sahimi profiles Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.

0950 GMT: Press Watch. The daily newspaper Roozegar, shut down in September for propaganda against the regime and publishing classified information, has re-appeared.

0945 GMT: The "Right" Election News. Abdolsamad Khorramabadi of Iran's judiciary has warned websites about spreading false news about elections such as protests and a boycott, as well as the use of photographs of women and the slander of candidates.

0920 GMT: Elections Watch (Hidden Imam Edition). The Ahmadinejad camp has quickly brought out its big weapon for the elections, with advisors like Ali AKbar Javanfekr declaring that the Hidden Imam will crush the "big idol" and pronoucing that the system of velayat-e faqih (clerical supremacy) and Imams belong to all, not to a single person or group.

Digarban reads the statements as directed against political rivals, such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and his deputy Mohammad Reza Bahonar, and senior clerics.

0900 GMT: Elections Watch. Asr-e Farda is conducting an on-line poll of Iranians over whether they will participate in March's elections. of the more than 3000 responses so far, 78.4% say No.

0820 GMT: Elections Watch. Prominent political analyst Sadegh Zibakalam has pronounced, after registration closed for candidacy for Parliamentary seats: “No real reformist has participated in this election.” He continued, “As neither Hashemi Rafsanjani’s  requests and conditions nor [former President Mohammad[ Khatami’s conditions for participating in the election have been considered, it is obvious that neither they nor their supporters will be involved." 

0800 GMT: Less than 24 hours after registration closed for applications for March's Parliamentary elections, conservatives and principlists were bringing their fights into the open. Tabnak, linked to Secretary of the Expediency Council, was "outing" President Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres with his men, with meetings and a new front for their political ambitions. Alireza Zakani, a leading force in the Unity Front which sought to reconcile --- unsuccessfully --- with pro-Ahmadinejad forces and now has to face them, claimed that the President's camp was spending $600,000 to $2 million to secure individual Parliamentary seats. The Supreme Leader's representative, Ali Akbar Velayati, was urging principlists to unite to turn back the "deviant current" of Ahmadinejad & Co. and the "sedition current" of reformists who refused to join the campaign.

More has followed. Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, is concerned:  “Even though the sedition current was a threat for the Revolution that was defeated by the 9th of Dey event [the regime's counter-rally of 30 December 2009],  the deviant current is more complicated than that. If we are not careful, the next Parliament will be under its control.”

Bahonar's concern over the President's camp was accompanied by an apparent call for reinforcements, as he chided former President Hashemi Rafsanjani over "his unclear position toward the Revolution and Supreme Leader".

Even amongst Ahmadinejad's supporters, there is some manoeuvring over the "deviant current". Former Minister of Health Bagheri Lankarani urged the President to make a necessary sacrifice by separating himself from controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: “Based on what I know of Ahmadinejad, I know he’s a wise man and has a clear plan for his political future. I doubt it he would want to present Mashai as the next Presidential candidate, being aware of all the opposition to him. And I’m even sure for the next [Parliament] election, no one would enter with Mashai’s label."

Other Ahmadinejad backers took aim at Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. MP Mahmoud Abtahi said that, "Unfortunately, websites under Larijani’s control still support the sedition current and these websites try to create division among principlists."

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