Iran Analysis: Why Ahmadinejad is the Key to a Nuclear Deal...and Why It Won't Happen (Disney)

Patrick Disney writes for The Atlantic:

In about a month, Iran's firebrand president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will once again fly to New York to attend the opening of the UN General Assembly. Being the lightning rod that he is, there are sure to be vehement protests and massive public outcry over his mere presence, much less whatever vile exhortations he has in store for us this year. Although this particular stage drama has becomepredictable over the last six years, now there is a new twist: Ahmadinejad's near-total political impotence back home in Iran.

Ahmadinejad's recent fall from grace has led many observers to write him off as a meaningful force in Iran. One analyst I spoke to recently said Ahmadinejad has become more like a foreign minister than a president, able to go on trips and give speeches, but not much more.

Iran's presidency has always been a relatively weak institution. According to the constitution of the Islamic Republic, the president is subservient to the supreme leader, who is vested with ultimate political and religious authority. Even among his peers in government, Ahmadinejad has always had to jockey for influence against military, clerical, and technocratic factions. But in recent months, Ahmadinejad has fallen out of favor with his colleagues -- and he has fallen hard.

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