Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Revolutionary Guards

General Jafari & President AhmadinejadThe news was so unexpected that it took some hours to sink in. In a speech crticising Iranian groups who were importing commerical goods and avoiding customs duties, President Ahmadinejad had stared straight at the Revolutionary Guards: they were "brothers who are also smugglers".

See later updates in The Latest from Iran (4 July): Pick Your Fight

Ahmadinejad had warned last month, amidst the increasing pressure on his camp with arrests of his advisors, that he could reveal information that would embarrass key officials within the Iranian establishment. Last weekend he told journalists that there was a "red line" against moves on his Cabinet and inner circle --- when State broadcaster IRIB censored the passsage, his staff posted the uncut video on the President's official website.

But to take on the country's most important military institution, one which many analysts have seen as a bulwark of Ahmadinejad's rise to power?

Yes, that was what he had done. The Revolutionary Guards --- not just the Guards, but the commander of the Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari --- went public with the denial that his forces had used Iranian ports for the import of commercial goods.

By last night, both the President's allegation and Jafari's denial were racing across media inside and outside Iran. Observers were trying to evaluate if other statements had become part of the skirmish. For example, had Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi unexpectedly joined Ahmadinejad when he not only called the import of alcohol and satellite dishes equal to "sedition" but had pondered a quadrupling of imports in 2010? (Probably not, but I am still trying to sort out the manoeuvres.)

EA staff are still debating the significance of Ahmadinejad's move. One correspondent argues, "Ahmadinejad's main foes are the Guards, at least those allied with Ayatollah Khamenei and [his son] Mojtaba --- this was the President's warning not to arrest [Chief of Staff Esfandiar] Rahim-Mashai and [Vice President Hamid] Baghaei." 

I replied, "I just can't see why Ahmadinejad would want to turn Jafari into a foe. Unless, of course, he already thinks Jafari is an enemy & the battle lines are drawn."

The correspondent, who noted that stories about clandestine ports date back to the years of President Khatami (1997-2005), when reformists demanded investigated, assessed, "Jafari is apparently an enemy, supporting the other side. In any case it proves the rifts within the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps] --- they are in no way a united block."

She continued, "If Ahmadinejad doesn't stop, we will have a war of all against all. Now they have entered the stage of trial of strength."

And so, after the surprise of Sunday, I could make no predictions but only conclude, "Let's see if Ahmadinejad follows up this initial shot."

The correspondent's sharply fired back by linking the new line against the Revolutionary Guards with the wider battlefront, "Ahmadinejad must follow up this initial shot --- the files against R-M and Baghaei are real, and the Supreme Leader won't make a retreat."