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Tuesday
Jun282011

Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Should the Opposition Join a "National Dialogue"?

2039 GMT: After the rebels have advanced near Zintan, capturing a series of underground bunkers south of the city and infusing fresh weapons into their ranks, destroying many Gaddafi heavy vehicles in the process, here is a map of the latest situation in Western Libya.

1925 GMT: As the BBC report we linked to earlier suggested, the Libyan rebels have captured a large weapons cache in the Nafusa Mountains, in western Libya. This infusion of weapons will bolster the rebel ranks, who often find themselves significantly outgunned:

"Long convoys of pickups and tractor trailer trucks could be seen streaming across the desert to the site after the fighting. They were loaded with rockets, ammunition, high-caliber guns and assault rifles before heading back to rebel-held cities. The insurgents also seized dozens of military vehicles at the site, which consisted of dozens of concrete storage mounds scattered across the desert."

Despite these gains, the final hour of the Gaddafi regime may still be a ways off:

1834 GMT: Women protest today on Dablan St, Homs, Syria:

Children chant anti-regime slogans in Qaboun, Syria:

1746 GMT: The Guardian's Fadwa al-Hatem has this assessment of the conference of opposition leaders in Damascus, Syria: Despite the fact that permitting the opposition figures to meet was unprecedented, the significance of the meeting is in doubt, as it is unlikely that Assad, or the minority Alawites, will cede the power that they have had over Syria for generations. With no members from any established political parties in attendance, and in light of Assad's recent speech in which he denied there were major problems, Hatem's conclusion is that the opposition conference was little more than a regime public-relations stunt.

1727 GMT: The BBC has this report (video) from the front lines of Libya, where the rebels are continuing their advance.

Also, Reuters has compiled a helpful fact sheet, listing 21 countries that have recognizes Libya's National Transitional Council as legitimately representing the Libyan people (US is on the list with an asterisk), and 4 others that recognize the NTC's place in political dialogue.

1420 GMT: Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia will withdraw its forces from Bahrain, starting Monday.

Over 1000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain in mid-March, greatly expanding the military capabilities of Bahrain's security forces. The UAE also sent military support to Bahrain.

1409 GMT:In Oman, 15 people have been sentenced to prison terms, ranging from one month to one year, because of their role in recent protests and alleged looting. Sultan Qaboos bin Said has pledged reforms, including the creation of 50,000 civil service jobs, but just last month Omani officials broke up protest camps in an attempt to stop Arab Spring from spreading.

1323 GMT: A spokesman for the rebels in the western mountains of Libya, Guma el-Gamaty, has released a statement that the rebels have taken the Alqaa baracks 30km south inf Zintan. According to NATO, air strikes have destroyed 3 Gaddafi tanks and 6 armored personnel carriers in Zintan in the last 24 hours.

The Guardian has also posted a video, claiming to show a rebel attack on pro-Gaddafi forces near Bir al-Ghanam, southwest of Tripoli.

1314 GMT: James Miller taking over for Scott Lucas...

Many may be surprised to find out who is claiming to be the biggest fan of the revolution that started on January 25th in Egypt: Former President Hosni Mubarak. According to his lawyer, Fareed El Deeb, Mubarak's overtures for reform were genuine, and the fact that he stepped aside on February 11th was proof that he supported change in Egypt. Mubarak is reportedly very disappointed with the Egyptian people.

But Fareed El Deeb has a more important claim to make,that Mubarak cannot afford to pay for his German doctor to treat him, and he will have to rely on donations from Egyptians to pay for his medical expenses. According to Deeb, Mubarak has no money stashed overseas, and only has the 8 million Egyptian pounds (about 1.3 million USD) in an Egyptian bank.

1210 GMT: And yet more videos from protests across Syria last night. First, Deir ez Zor in the northeast:

Barzeh section of Damascus:

Homs

1050 GMT: Claimed footage of a protest in Idlib Province in northwest Syria in response to the regime's offer of "national dialogue" (see 0515 GMT):

1045 GMT: More political uncertainty and confusion in Yemen --- a regime spokesmen was saying throughout Monday that President Saleh, still recovering in Saudi Arabia from injuries from a bomb blast, would speak to the nation today. Now a "senior official" is saying the State TV broadcast will be "after Thursday".

0855 GMT: Tunisian authorities will bar supporters of ousted President Ben Ali's party from October's election for a constituent assembly.

Those not allowed to stand for election will include officials from Ben Ali's Rally for Constitutional Democracy (RDC), including political operatives, central committee members and anyone who played a key role mobilising on behalf of the party, according to State news agency TAP.

The election commission said it also wanted to wipe from the voters registry anyone who called for Ben Ali to be re-elected in 2014.

The number of people barred from voting could be between 14,000 and 18,000.

0840 GMT: Claimed footage of a protest in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia on Monday night:

And a candle-lit march in Qamishli in the northeast:

0620 GMT: The Minister of Health in Libya's opposition government says a medical crisis is looming in eastern Libya as hospitals in Benghazi run short of supplies.

Dr Nagi Barakat told the BBC that most emergency aid donated from abroad went straight to the front line.

A list of 150 items which are needed urgently includes surgical gloves, gauze, and drugs for patients in cardiac and intensive care units.

0615 GMT: Young people gather in Syria on Monday to call for the downfall of the Assad regime:

0545 GMT: Has Ahmad Ali Saleh, son of the Yemeni President and commander of the Republican Guards, swung behind Acting President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi?

Earlier this month Saleh appeared to be challenging Hadi for control while the President recovers in Saudi Arabia from injuries suffered in a bomb blast at the start of the month. However, on Sunday he issued a press release assuring that his forces obey the orders of Hadi and declaring that he would "address any attempts of sabotage targeting the constitutional legitimacy".

0515 GMT: The headline development last night came out of Syria, where 200 opposition activists and intellectuals met in a Damascus hotel.

A statement declared that the participants would be "part of Syria's peaceful uprising for freedom and democracy and pluralism to establish a democratic state through peaceful means", but it apparently hedged on the key question: would the opposition accept the Assad regime's invitation to a "national dialogue" on 10 July? 

Some Syrians abroad expressed scepticism, portraying the opposition inside the country as too amenable and acceptable for the regime --- why else would they be allowed to convene? --- but their statements offered little of detail beyond the general rejection.

So Syria overtakes Bahrain, where the monarchy had already played the "national dialogue" card, issuing the invitation for 1 July. While there have been a few notable acceptances, the process already appears dormant, with the leading opposition party saying it will not participate under current conditions. The supposed dialogue has also been overshadowed by mass trials --- yesterday, it was the turn of 28 medical staff to go before a judge for joining protests and spreading "false information".

And in Libya, "dialogue" is even further removed amidst confusion as to whether Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi will stand aside from negotiations. While regime ministers seem to be putting out feelers --- three of them are reportedly in Tunisia in discussions --- the opposition National Transitional Council has said Qaddafi's departure from power and the release of political prisoners are pre-conditions for any talks.

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