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Saturday
Jun182011

The Latest from Iran (18 June): An Economic Squeeze?

1520 GMT: Allah and Politics. Mehr claims a newly-appointed governor in Sari Province in northern Iran has been dismissed after officials asked for guidance from God through divination.

The Ministry of Interior had appointed Ali Babaei Karnami as late last month but he was dismissed Tuesday as a formal inauguration was being organised.

“Since divination showed a bad result, we preferred to look for another choice,” current Governor Ali Akbar Tahaei said.

Tahaei said he had named a replacement and added, "Karnami should not be irritated for not taking up the post because I’ll need him to serve at a provincial municipality posting.”

Supporters of the Supreme Leader and of President Ahmadinejad clashed earlier this month over the appointment of a governor for Fars Province.

1505 GMT: Human Rights Watch. Zohreh Elahian, the head of Parliament's Human Rights Committee has declared that Tehran will not allow the United Nations Special Rapporteur, mandated by the UN Human Rights Council in March, to visit Iran.

Elahian said the UN resolution was made by the US and Israel and is illegal.

1405 GMT: Press Watch. Iranian authorities have lifted a 15-month ban on the leading reformist newspaper Etemad.

The paper was banned in March 2010 for ""repeated and persistent violations".

Etemad's managing director, former MP Elias Hazrati wrote in Ssturday's edition that the ban had been out of "stubbornness", and he vowed to continue to "serve the regime and the national interest". He added, "I pursued the case and a fair judge --- a rarity in the judiciary --- ordered that the paper be cleared for renewed publication."

The first edition of the revived paper a short message on the front page from former president Mohammad Khatami: "We thank God that we are witnessing the dawn of Etemad again and let's hope it will keep its word to correctly inform the people as it did before."

1200 GMT: Energy Watch. Khabar Online claims energy providers have been banned from leaving Iran because they have not settled the bills of contractors. The providers are in difficulty because they have not been paid by the Ministry of Energy.

1150 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online reports that the price of rice has reached unprecedented levels, increasing 23% in the last year and 5% in the last month.

1145 GMT: The Battle Within. Speaking to Asian and Pacific legislators, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has thrown a domestic punch: "The attack on professors, students, universities, and cultural and religious centres is a sign of harsh political management of country and use of inhumane and dictatorial methods."

1140 GMT: So Who's Worried Now About Vote Manipulation? And another apparent warning to the Ahmadinejad camp about the 2012 Parliamentary elections, this one from Morteza Agha Tehrani, "People expect their votes to come out of ballot box the same as when they put them in".

1130 GMT: The Battle Within. Former Minister of Interior Mostafa Pourmohammadi has warned that the "deviant current" around President Ahmadinejad could send 50 people to the next Parliament and said all should be aware to prevent this.

Habiballah Asgarouladi has denounced Ahmadinejad's recent letter, nominating a new Minister of Sports but complaining about the Ministry, as unduly harsh and against the ideas of the Supreme Leader.

1055 GMT: Opposition Watch. The video interview of opposition advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand by Charlie Rose of the US Public Broadcasting Service is now on-line.

1035 GMT: So Who's Worried Now About Vote Manipulation? A pro-Khamenei website has announced the launch of a "popular movement to protect the votes of the deprived".

The move comes amidst tensions within the conservative establishment, with allegations that the Ahmadinejad camp will try and manipulate next March's Parliamentary ballot.

1000 GMT: The Battle Within. The website linked to the President's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has claimed that power-hungry "leftists" are trying to win the 2012 Parliamentary elections by controlling reformists, but warned that this will be a nightmare for them.

Hafte Sobh continued that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is trying to attract reformists for the elections, forming a coalition with former President Mohammad Khatami.

The claims follow reports that Rafsanjani met the senior leaders of the conservative Motalefeh Party to discuss the political situation.

0945 GMT: CyberWatch (Clerical Edition). The website of Ayatollah Amjad, who issued a statement this week denouncing those who commit abuse and violence, has reportedly been taken off-line.

0940 GMT: Opposition Watch. Opposition advisor Ardeshir Amir Arjomand has used an interview to reflect on next steps for the challenge to the regime. Insisting on non-violent resistance for a "diverse" movement, he said, "It is not completely realistic to pose separation of state and religion as a precondition for positive changes in Iran."

0530 GMT: Oil Watch. Mehr gives an indication of a further economic headache for the regime --- the website reports that China may be pulling out of a multi-billion contract to develop production in the South Pars oil and gas field.

The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) warned that it would "replace CNPC [China National Petroleum Corporation] with domestic companies" if the Chinese company continue to delay implementation of the $4.7 billion contract, signed in 2009.

CNPC had replaced France's Total SA in development of Phase 11 of South Pars, after the French firm pulled out amidst escalating international sanctions.

0510 GMT: The economic situation is not necessarily going to be at the forefront of public discussion of Iran. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, for example, did not utter a word about it in his Tehran Friday Prayer, preferring 1) to denounce the evil regime in Bahrain and the evil American regime behind it and 2) to denounce the equally evil --- and banal as well --- satellite TV. Press TV, the regime's English-language outlet to the world, has sheltered this week behind a positive report of the International Monetary Fund, based on official data provided by Tehran, which is one notch above useless.

But despite this absence from public presentation, the issues of unemployment, inflation, and a shaky currency are always there. For example, our account yesterday from a Tehran source about sharply rising prices and problems with the subsidy cuts programme has brought a flurry of information and debate.

On the "up" side, the Government's support payments system, to cover the rising prices from subsidy cuts, does appear to be in place, although some people did not apply for the $45 per month. And prices are not necessarily at "Western European" levels, as our source yesterday indicated, bringing desperation.

On the other hand, the prices are undeniably rising, especially for food. (Gasoline prices are still somewhat sheltered because there is a level of Government subsidy behind them.) And the support payments have had a perhaps unintended effect. If that $45/month may go into the purchase of dollars rather than back into banks or purchase, then pressure on the sliding Iranian currency might increase.

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