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Thursday
May192011

Middle East Special: Live Analysis of Obama Speech as It is Delivered

1906 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wastes no time in responding to Obama's speech

"Palestinian state cannot come at the expense of the viability of the one and only Jewish state."

See also Middle East Video and Transcript: The Obama Speech

Netanyahu then goes on to condemn the plan for Israel to withdraw to borders established in 1967, borders which "are both indefensible and which would leave major Israeli population centers in Judea and Samaria beyond those lines."

"Without a solution to the Palestinian refugee problem outside the borders of Israel, no territorial concession will bring peace."

1818 GMT: Bahrain was criticised, Yemen was criticized, as were Israel, the Palestinians, Hosni Mubarak, Ben Ali, Iran, and the imperialism of the West. Intersting, I don't think Saudi Arabia was mentioned once (looking for a full transcript now), and while Obam insinuated that "Baghdad" needed to permit freedom of speech without violence, there was no mention of protests in Iraq.

1812 GMT: Another interesting note. Obama called on Fateh and Hamas to prove themselves by accepting a two-state solution and to avoid radicalization. An EA Correspondant notes that this is a compromise between elements of Obama's administration who wanted to recognize these organizations and those who refused to negotiate with these groups that they consider "terrorists."

1806 GMT: James Miller notes: While we will be providing more analysis later, the overall reaction is that the speech, especially the second half, was a call on Israel to cease oppressive policies that are similar to the causes of the Arab Spring.

At the same time, the message to the Palestinians also seems clear - denounce terrorism, accept Israel's right to exist, and see this new beginning in the Middle East as a call to return to the table and start again.

1802 GMT: Obama closes by saying that success of the democratic movements will result in a world that is "more peaceful, more stable, and more just."

1800 GMT: "Across the region, those rights that we take for granted are being claimed with joy." Obama then speaks to the unsettling images of rebellion by referencing the American Revolution, Civil War, and the Civil Rights Movement as parallel, and ugly, and inspiring events in American history.

1752 GMT: Obama commits to "two states" but, interestingly, adopts the favoured language of the Netanyahu Government of Israel as a "Jewish state".

Obama then emphasises a settlement based on the 1967 borders with Palestine having a "single, contiguous state".

1749 GMT: Obama says the "drive for a lasting peace" is more important than ever. Then he turns to finger-wagging: he denounces not only Hamas but also the Palestinian quest for recognition of a state by the UN this autumn. Israel is told, after reassurance of an "unshakable" commitment to security and "shared values" and friendship, that "the status quo is unsustainable".

No specifics follow, however --- there is no call, for example, for a cessation of construction of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

1747 GMT: "Let me conclude...with pursuit of peace" introduces the Israel-Palestine section. Lots of rhetoric follows on the damage to the people within Israel and Palestine and to those outside the area from the conflict.

Israel gets blame for continuing settlements; Palestine for "walking away from talks".

1746 GMT: The Obama list continues, promising to help countries deal with corruption.

1745 GMT: James Miller says, "Interesting --- by linking the post-Arab Spring Middle East to Post-World War II Europe, Obama is suggesting that foreign aid and forgiveness of debt in fledgling democracies would have similar economic and political results as the golden age of the American 1950s."

1741 GMT: Obama moves to a key theme of "economic development" to support movement towards democracy.

General rhetoric follows with a paean to technology, "economic growth to support the movement towards democracy on the streets". The US will focus on "trade, not just aid" and on investment.

Now the promises: Obama says the US will encourage other countries to work with Tunisia and Egypt. He says the US will relieve Egypt of up to $1 billion in debt and guarantee up to $1 billion for infrastructure and job creation. The Administration will work with Congress to establish "free enterprise zones". The US will create a comprehensive trade partnership.

1739 GMT: Obama calls for support of minorities, with tolerance of religion and respect of all faiths. Women's rights are then name-checked.

1737 GMT: "If you take the risks that reform entails, you will have the support of the United States," Obama says, and he promises to connect beyond elites, with links in business, science, and technology, with civil society, and with young people.

Obama then makes the US Government's pitch on open access to information and freedom of the press, even "if what is said does not square with our worldview".

1736 GMT: Iraq's turn now, with Obama referring to its "peaceful progress" --- he may have missed widespread protests and violence, especially in Kurdistan, over the last three months.

1734 GMT: Obama addresses an expected criticism by saying the US cannot be silent on the injustices of its friends, such as the regimes in Bahrain and Yemen.

He refers to the genuine concern of the Bahraini regime over Iranian interference but says this "will not make genuine calls for reforms go away....You can't have a dialogue when parts of the peaceful opposition is in jail."

This is stronger than I expected on Bahrain, in terms of rhetoric, but not much is offered on substance.

1733 GMT: And now the denunciation of the Iranian regime with a reference to the "first" uprising occurring in Iran in 2009. There is a reference to the symbolic death of "a young woman in the streets" (Neda Agha Soltan).

1731 GMT: Obama now moves to an attack on the Syrian regime and praise for the Syrian people calling for a transition to democracy: "President Assad can lead that transition or get out of the way. The Syrian Government must stop shooting demonstrators and allow peaceful protests." It must release political prisoners and start a genuine dialogue.

No specific steps are suggested, only more isolation if Syria does not alter its ways.

1730 GMT: US will support transition to democracy and civil society, Obama says.

As expected, he starts with Egypt and Tunisia. Then he moves to Libya with a rhetorical denunciation of Libya.

Obama is careful, using the warning of Iraq 2003, to distance himself from "regime change" but says the intervention was necessary to save lives.

James Miller of EA: "Barack Obama can only commit the armed forces to a military action, without Congressional approval, for 60 days. Tomorrow, he reaches the end of that time limit. The focus on the violence of the Gaddafi regime is part of his plea to Congress to grant him permission to continue the mission in Libya."

1729 GMT: Obama's core principles start with a life free from violence and for self-determination. His quick geographic check-list, interestingly, is "Baghdad to Sana'a to Tehran".

1727 GMT: My bet is on Obama promising economic aid to certain countries, thus side-stepping tricky political questions (Israel-Palestine settlement, Bahrain, relationship with Saudi Arabia).

This will be in guise of Obama's reference now to "core principles".

1725 GMT: "What role will the US play in this?" Obama checks off a standard list of Arab-Israeli peace, assured energy supplies, no aggression across borders. But then he glides to economics and communications: these do not speak to an "empty stomach" and a "hungry mind".

"There will be times that short term interests will not align with our long-term vision for the region," Obama says.

1724 GMT: EA correspondent James Miller comments, "Obama, by starting with Al Qaeda, then moving to the growing democratic movement in the Arab World, is equating the promotion of economic and political prosperity with US efforts to fight terrorism."

And, on cue, Obama says, "Through non-violence, the people of the region have achieved more change in six months than terrorists have achieved in decades."

1723 GMT: Obama makes a clever shift by saying that, as they were repressed, people were deflected in hatred of the "West" for past colonialism and of Israel.

However, he says, the past six months has shown this will no longer work.

1721 GMT: Obama says the story of revolution should not have come as a surprise --- Arab peoples have a tradition of desire of freedom, but power "was concentrated in the hands of the few", the media was restricted, and economies were stunted by the lack of a development strategy (people "could not start a business wihtout paying a bribe").

1718 GMT: Obama glides into his narrative of the Arab Spring by citing the symbolic catalyst, the suicide of Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia --- protesting his unemployment and humiliation by authorities --- in Tunisia.

No comment by Obama on how the US was linked to Tunisia's leader President Ben Ali, merely a reference to the US Founding Fathers to hook up with Tunisian protesters and their "revolution".

1616 GMT: Obama goes for the opening of US "success". He cites withdrawal from Iraq, a new course in Afghanistan "breaking the Taliban's momentum", and, of course, the killing of Osama bin Laden: "he rejected democracy and individual rights for Muslims".

So Obama sets up an evil v. good contest for Muslim --- bin Laden's "murderous" approach v. the values of the US.

1615 GMT: Obama gets straight into rhetoric about the "great change" in the Middle East, "square by square", "town by town", "country by country".

He wants to talk about this change and how "we can advance our values" and ensure "our security".

1614 GMT: Obama begins with thanks to the Secretary of State and a lame joke about Frequent Flyer miles.

1608 GMT: Hillary Clinton begins her introduction of the President.

1520 GMT: Even before Obama takes the podium, Israel offers a pointed response....

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office approved a Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee meeting, scheduled for today, to discuss housing construction in the Jerusalem neighborhoods of Har Homa and Pisgat Ze'ev.

The two projects are beyond the Green Line --- and thus nominally in Palestinian territory --- and include more than 1550 housing units.

Earlier in May, the Prime Minister’s Office asked the Interior Ministry to remove the housing projects from the agenda of the Interior Ministry committee that approves the construction.

1445 GMT: We will be here from 1540 GMT (11:40 a.m. in Washington) to provide on-the-spot analysis of President Obama's speech on the Middle East.

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