The Latest from Iran (15 May): A Display of Protest Today?

2105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Narges Mohammadi, the wife of Taghi Rahmani, said that the journalist and consultant to Mehdi Karroubi, has been freed on $150,000 bail.

1930 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. We have now moved our LiveBlog of tonight's speech by the President, combining it with a snap analysis of the political significance, to a separate entry.

1630 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. In the midst of a story on the political conflict by Michael Theodoulou and Maryam Sinaiee of The National, this nugget from an analyst: "[President] Ahmadinejad is seeking a firm grip on the oil ministry, which [Ayatollah] Khamenei sees as his domain. This is part of the chess game between the two men."

Ahmadinejad is trying to combine the Oil and Energy Ministries as part of his planned mergers.

1615 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. This is stinging invective from a man who has been called the President's "spiritual mentor" --- Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi declares, "I am 90% sure Ahmadinejad has been put under a spell. His actions are not normal."

1600 GMT: 25 Ordibehesht. According to witnesses and opposition media, prominent student activists were prevented from entering the campus of Amir Kabir University today.

And a first-hand account from students at one university:

We went to campus with a number of our friends today. We had only chanted "Students will die before accepting humiliation" a few times, when our brothers with the University Security Personnel suddenly appeared and confiscated our cell phones and personal belonging. We now await disciplinary action from the University Disciplinary Committee!

1550 GMT: 25 Ordibehesht. Claimed footage of a demonstration at Tehran University today, with chants of "Death to the Dictator":

1330 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Press TV's Iran section leads with the attack on the President by Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar (see 0700 GMT): "Iran MP Tells Pres. Dismissals 'Illegal'".

Bahonar said Ahmadinejad had the right to dismiss three Ministers --- Oil, Industry, and Social Welfare --- but he challenged the rationale that this was because of the mergers. Bahnoar said the old ministries had not been dissolvd and "no new ministry can be established unless Majlis approves the mandate of the new ministries".

Bahonar said he had written to the three ministers to inform them, “You are ministers unless you are impeached by Majlis or dismissed by the President, but if the President says we do not have a ministry and therefore you are no longer ministers, this is illegal.”

1300 GMT: 25 Ordibehesht. Back from a break to find the first reports of campus protests....

Isfahan University students have reportedly protested. Mid-term examinations at Qazvin University have reportedly been cancelled because of student demonstrations. There are claims of gathering at Sari and Ghaemshahr Free Universities.

0810 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another jab at President Ahmadinejad --- Hassan Shabanpour of Parliament's Energy Commission has denounced the merger of the Ministries of Oil and Energy as "unreasonable".

0700 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. It looks like leading MPs are going to maintain their attacks until Ahmadinejad's statement this evening.

Gholam-Reza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, a leading member of Parliament's Economic Commission --- in a featured interview on Ali Larijani's Khabar Online --- has said that Ahmadinejad is as stubborn and egotistical as the late Shah.

Deputy Speaker of Parwliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar has warned that the President's dismissal of three Ministers on Saturday is illegal unless he presents necessary information to the Majlis.

Meanwhile, the editor of the hard-line Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, goes after Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, questioning the sincerity of Rahim-Mashai's declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader.

0615 GMT: Just a Reminder. We're taking a "wait-and-see" position on the political battles within the establishment until President Ahmadinejad speaks to the nation in a televised interview this evening.

0555 GMT: Students at dozens of Iranian universities have declared that they will march today, 25 Ordibehesht, in protest against the regime. 

So far, the prospect of protest has consisted of statements, posters, and a warning from Iran's police commanders that they are prepared for any show of dissent.

If the students do turn out, it will add another layer to the political conflict, now centred upon President Ahmadinejad's attempted merger of six Ministries into three.

Saturday began with Ahmadinejad's dismissal of three Ministers --- Oil, Industry, and Social Welfare --- of the units to be merged. By the end of the day, some Western observers were declaring that the President was "defying Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his loyalists".

This sensational conclusion was far from clear. On paper, Ahmadinejad was merely carrying out a step in a proposal he had agreed with his chief critic, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, on Friday. After days of escalating tension, the two men had met with the Supreme Leader brokering a deal. The key question is whether the President lives up to that bargain by presenting a bill to Parliament for approval of the mergers.

Meanwhile, Larijani and his ally, leading MP (and his brother-in-law) Ahmad Tavakoli, are playing good cop, bad cop. On Saturday, Larijani was saying that Ahmadinejad's dismissal of the three Ministers was within the President's powers but he now needed to see the legislation to fulfil the Government's commitment to consult Parliament. At the same time, Tavakoli was piling on pressure through his statements (Ahmadinejad's dismissals were hasty and against the "national interest") and his website Alef (Vice-President Hamid Baghaei oversaw billions of dollars of no-bid contracts, handing out the money to friends and allies).

Others were also warning the President. His "spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, said Ahmadinejad was turning friends into enemies and demonstrating "illogical and cheap" behaviour. It was unclear if the remarks, published in the weekly magazine Shoma, were made before or after Friday's deal between the President and Larijani.