Iran Snap Analysis: Interpreting Tonight's Ahmadinejad Speech

Our running analysis of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech this evening (hat tip to Tehran Bureau for their coverage).

We're still working through a detailed evaluation but our initial impression is of Ahmadinejad the Prizefighter, tactically retreating on one front while jabbing on another.

The President effectively admitted defeat in his attempt to take control of the Ministry of Intelligence --- the move that started this political crisis last month --- and he tried to cover his public position by pledging loyalty to the Supreme Leader.

See also Iran Transcript: President Ahmadinejad's TV Interview

But note that Ahmadinejad did not back away from the tension he has caused with his attempt to merge Ministries.

Indeed, note a possible new battlefront. Amidst the general, often vague rhetoric, this blunt assertion stands out --- on the oversight of the Ministry of Oil, Ahmadinejad declares, "Currently, I'm the supervisor." Is he really looking, after the argument over the Ministry of Intelligence, to expand his authority in another vital area, one which could prompt another conflict with the Supreme Leader?

1900 GMT: President Ahmadinejad's interview --- or, rather, a staged set of questions for the President to make a speech --- began on State TV began 45 minutes ago.

The President has concentrated on making an economic case in the first 40 minutes. He started with a grandiose statement, "We can proudly announce that we are the only country in the world where no family is hungry or without clothes," before putting out his standard theme of Iran as a model for other nations:

The World Bank's president said that what we have done here is remarkable. They asked our specialists to come to three international conferences and explain how we've achieved such remarkable efficiency and economic turnaround in such a short time.

Ahmadinejad then got to specific issues with a somewhat tangled defence of his controversial subsidy reduction plan:

Last winter, [the cost of] about 78% of the population's gas was only 4,000 tomans ($4)compared to 1600 tomans ($1.60) before. People get subsidies for these commodities. Of course, if they use more than the subsidies, they have to pay it for themselves. But only a small percentage use more than the subsidized amount.

And then it was back to the sweeping promises: "Last year, we created 1.6 million jobs. This year, our job creation is going to be about 2.5 million. Hopefully, if we can keep this up for a few more years, we won't have unemployment in Iran." And, in health care, "[With] urban family doctors...and universal insurance, which we will start this year and in two or three years, we could get to a point where Iranians wouldn't have to face any kind of shame and are taken care of."

1902 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. The President summarised so far --- Everything is Great. The stock market is booming, incomes are rising, exports are increasing.

1905 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. Finally, the President gets to the immediate political issue of his attempt to merge Iranian ministries, contested by Parliament's leaders and other Government critics.

He offers an anodyne statement: "We have to start merging ministries. This is part of the plan. I wish I could make more ministries because my very good friends will be around me all the time. But the nation needs a smaller government."

Ahmadinejad comments on his his merger of the Ministry of Oil with the Ministry of Energy. Having dismissed Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi on Saturday, Ahmadinejad is blunt: "Currently, I'm the supervisor." He then wanders around the topic, "A fourth of the oil in this country is used to power the electricity grid....There are some ministries that we can you can take three of them and merge them into one."

1910 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. And that's it on the mergers --- a general, rather vague response to the controversy: "I am not concerned".

And there is this re-assurance: conflicts between Parliament, Government, and others in the Islamic Republic are good for the system.

1915 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. Having dealt with internal tensions by dismissing them, the President then moves to his secure ground of pronouncing on the international situation.

There is this juicy soundbaite: "I have clear information that Bin Laden has been in US custody for a very long time. He was sick. They had him. But they killed him. This is because the President of the United States wants to use it for his own gain --- he wants it to use it for his reelection."

And, of course, there is the standard declaration on Iran and its support of peoples from Central Asia to the Middle East to North Africa:

We have an Islamic duty to support justice, truth and right. It is our duty to resist the hegemony of the United States in the region. I think that these nations will rule themselves and justice will rule.

1925 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. Now the President makes his big political move --- having picked a fight with the Supreme Leader over the failed attempt at the "forced resignation" of the Minister of Intelligence, Ahmadinejad now wants to be alongside Ayatollah Khamenei in the political contests of the near-future.

First, there is this declaration:

We have the best things. We have the best history, the best geography, resources, people and finally, leadership. We must go forward. We should join hands, minds and hearts and do what is necessary to take things forward. We have the best country. As for the elections for the parliament, they are the people's. No one in the government has the right to interfere with them in anyway. Finally, we believe that our system is the best: Imam and nation. The Imam guides, and the nation follows.

There are two important markers in this passage. The first, of course, is the declaration of allegiance to the Supreme Leader. The second is more subtle --- Ahmadinejad's move on the Ministry of Intelligence was significant because that agency has a key role in Parliamentary elections, vetting all candidates for their "security" in defending the Islamic Republic. His critics challenged him because they feared the President was trying to seize the levers of control over next year's contests.

So, with this statement, Ahmadinejad is denying any such ambitions. In effect, he is backing away from his plan.

1930 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Interview. The speech ends with more platitudes about loyalty to the Supreme Leader and the system of velayat-e faqih (clerical supremacy):

We have a just ruler. One whose connection with the people is of love. How can you have justice without a just ruler? Our Imam is the one who ensures justice in this system. And the people ensure that it reaches them....

I have taken it upon myself to defend this modern system, to defend Velayat-e Faqih....Wali (Khamenei) is like a father to our society."