Israel-Gaza Analysis: Why the Talk is Now of a Cease-Fire

So now it is said that the exchange of hostilities between factions in Gaza and the State of Israel will not bring another war. After the concern of recent days that West Jerusalem might repeat the attack of 2008/9, Operation Cast Lead, suddenly the talk  from Hamas and then from Israel was of a cease-fire.

So what happened? 

The surface reading had been that an escalation of tension on the Gaza border was useful for Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as this took attention away from any need for concessions in talks on the other Palestinian front --- the West Bank --- ahead of Israeli elections. Indeed, even Washington's statement that it was“deeply concerned” about the construction of another 942 housing units of Israeli settlements in the West Bank could be put aside.

However, Netanyahu also faced the prospects of a Gazan fight-back through attacks inside Israel, demonstrated by the recent assault on a bus in Jerusalem. Hamas had to deal with the consequences, as it looked to display a rebuilt credibility in the region, a theme of victory versus a “weak Israel, and a stronger hand over the reunification talks with its rival Fatah.

To rewind to the start of recent events....

Having learned a big lesson from Operation Cast Lead that any collective punishment (a war crime as set out in the Goldstone Report) would be a headache in the international arena, Israel returned to the targeting of senior Hamas leaders, smuggling tunnels, and the military wing of the Gazan organisation.

At the same time, Hamas recognised that the cost of a second war upon Gaza would be higher for West Jerusalem at a time of tensions across the region. The US and the European Union would have to sharpen their tone to the point of recognising a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 war lines. However, Hamas' advantage then faced last Thursday's incident when an anti-tank missile fired from Gaza hit an Israeli school bus, wounding two people. That brought an official condemnation by Washington, following the recent “confession” of Richard Goldstone stepping away from his committee's report and pointing the finger of blame at Hamas. The Gazan organisation soon announced a unilateral cease-fire on the part of all factions in the Gaza Strip. 

Israel kept pressing, however, despite Hamas' “sorry” for having targeted the school bus. The Israel Defense Forces continued strikes, killing Hamas men in military compounds. Retaliation came through another six rockets were fired on Israel on Saturday night.

At the same time, Hamas sent a message to West Jerusalem, asking for a mutual cease-fire. As another five mortar rounds hit the Negev on Sunday,and two rockets exploded near Ashkelon, Hamas Deputy Foreign Minister Ghazi Hamad said in an interview on Israel Radio: "We are interested in calm but want the Israeli military to stop its operations.” Israel’s response was immediate: “You will see a harsher response if rockets keep coming.” 

Israel could take the initiative in the battle in a long run by bombarding targets, confident that its new Iron Dome defence system could intercept rockets aimed at crowded areas.

Yet there was a limit for West Jerusalem --- because of the political effects, the escalation could not be on-going if Hamas was declaring that it would not be defensive but would initiatie a cease-fire. On Sunday, Netanyahu said: We intend to restore the quiet. If that is also Hamas' intention, quiet will be restored. If Hamas intensifies its attacks...our response will be much more severe."

Israel fears that the Quartet (US, European Union, Russia, United Nations) could act dramatically in Berlin by announcing the expectation of negotiations on the basis of a Palestinian state with pre-1967 borders, which could lead to UN recognition of that Palestine. in September. So, under pressure from Netanyahu, Interior Minister Eli Yishai instructed the Jerusalem District Planning and Building Committee to postpone discussion on new construction across the Green Line in the West Bank --- 980 housing units in Har Homa and 600 units in Pisgat Ze’ev --- until after the Passover holiday. Netanyahu is also reportedly considering a withdrawal of Israel Defense Forces troops from the West Bank. 

Meanwhile, Washington blocked European moves and postponed the Quartet meeting to be held on Friday, whether out of concern over Israel’s flirtation with Moscow or a secret understanding with Netanyahu.