Pakistan Analysis: Will There Be a Coup? (And Why It Doesn't Really Matter)

Asif Ali ZardariThe past few days has seen a frenzy of speculation about the fate of Pakistan's elected government, thanks in large to President Asif Ali Zardari's sudden trip to Dubai for medical treatment. If you believe the buzz, the all-powerful military has forced Zardari out of the country and he will resign soon --- on Friday, Minister of Interior Rehman Malik had to deny the rumours, "“The situation is not as complex as you are viewing it."

So the worrying scenario: the Pakistani military, fed up with the civilian leadership, is seizing power only three years after ceding it. This, however, is quite unlikely.

Two months ago, I was tasked to write an assessment of the possibility.  on the very same subject with the question: how likely is another toppling of an elected Pakistani government by the military. I interviewed more than a dozen Pakistani journalists, political and military analysts, and former military officers --- including one whoknows the current head of the military, General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani on a first-name basis.

The response to the projected take-over was overwhelmingly negative: "The military is not going to stage a coup any time soon." The two interviewees who were concerned thought that the possibility existed in case of a catastrophic turn in the political situation, but the chances of that happening were remote. "Memogate" --- in which the Government allegedly sent a note to the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, asking for American help to forestall a military coup --- would not be the pretext for Zardari's removal. The thought of another military general taking power and robbing people of the right to vote still seems too much to bear by ordinary Pakistanssi, according to almost every interviewee.

But beyond the headline issue, the truth is that it may only be symbolic. "There won't be a take-over of power by Kayani because well, he already rules," said one Pakistani analyst. The military has only ceded power to the elected government in name: all national security initiatives have to be run past the generals before they can be implemented by the government. Frequent meetings are held between the civilian officials and the military to decide matters such as the fate of Osama bin Laden, the flood disaster relief efforts, relations with Afghanistan and the US, foreign aid, terrorism within Pakistan, law and order, eand ven some aspects of the economy.

Will Zardari return to Pakistan and resume his role as "Mr. 110%"? We'll have to wait and see, but the reality is that such a development may not matter.