Iran Special: "Activities Relevant to the Development of a Nuclear Explosive Device" --- Text of IAEA Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran's nuclear programme --- the subject of much advance presentation and hype since last week --- has appeared on the website of the Institute for Science and International Security.

The report is stronger than previous IAEA reports in two key areas: 1) its standard phrase of Iran's "non-diversion of declared nuclear material" has a tougher caveat this time over the IAEA's inability to inspect certain facilties --- "the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran"; and 2) the finding, for the first time, "Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".

The second point is the one that unnamed officials have been touting, with amplification of supposed models and equipment for nuclear chain reactions, to international media. The IAEA has a 15-page annex with the technical information, but the salient point is its caution --- in comparison with what officials are presenting --- in its accusations of organised activity by Tehran for a militarised capability. While it sees "a structured programme" before 2003, when Iran's activities came under scrutiny after revelations about the possible research for military uses, the IAEA does not bring down the hammer of saying that Tehran has definitely done so since then: "some activities may still be ongoing".

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CONCLUSIONS

52. While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

53. The Agency has serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme. After assessing carefully and critically the extensive information available to it, the Agency finds the information to be, overall, credible. The information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The information also indicates that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still be ongoing.

54. Given the concerns identified above, Iran is requested to engage substantively with the Agency without delay for the purpose of providing clarifications regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme as identified in the Annex to this report. 55. The Agency is working with Iran with a view to resolving the discrepancy identified during the recent PIV at JHL. 56. The Director General urges Iran, as required in the binding resolutions of the Board of Governors and mandatory Security Council resolutions, to take steps towards the full implementation of its Safeguards Agreement and its other obligations, including: implementation of the provisions of its Additional Protocol; implementation of the modified Code 3.1 of the Subsidiary Arrangements General Part to its Safeguards Agreement; suspension of enrichment related activities; suspension of heavy water related activities; and, as referred to above, addressing the Agency’s serious concerns about possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme, in order to establish international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme. 57. The Director General will continue to report as appropriate.

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