Syria Snap Analysis: "This Regime Crackdown Cannot Be Sustained"

Footage from inside a tank, as it destroys the minaret of a mosque in Deir Ez Zor in the northeast

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Yesterday we saw the usual reports of the Syrian military campaign near Homs coupled with news of intensified raids in Idlib Province in the northwest, Daraa in the south, and towns near Hama.

There appeared to be a major security crackdown in the Damascus suburbs, including western Ghota, Harasta, Erbeen, and Douma, but even those reports paled to those coming out of Saqba, just over four kilometres (2.5 miles) from the centre of the capital. An estimated 3000 soldiers were reportedly positioned in the city, as videos showed many armoured cars and buses filled with security forces and we received news of tanks being positions. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights said that these were the "fiercest security operations since the start of the revolution".

Meanwhile, there were more signs of resistance in Amuda, a Kurdish town in the northeast that has been growing in importance since a major activist, Mashaal Tammo, was killed this month. Soldiers were reported in the town, and we have seen video of a rally being disrupted by security forces.

Perhaps the fiercest fighting occurred in al Harak, a suburb of Daraa in the south, as we noted in Tuesday's LiveBlog:

The LCCS is reporting that Sheikh Wajih al-Qaddah was "kidnapped by Shabiha" out of his home today, there have been major protests as a result, and the Syrian security forces have opened fire. Casualties are reported.

Who is Sheikh Wajih al-Qaddah? According to Syrian State news agency SANA, a "terrorist" "confessed" on Saturday (or, as the opposition would claim, one activist who was possibly tortured and threatened if he did not speak). That "terrorist", Youssef Ghazi al-Saleh, said that the Sheikh had incited violence and was working with the Lebanese to overthrow the government and encourage activists to kill security personnel. Al-Saleh even went as far as to directly accuse Sheikh al-Qaddah of pulling the trigger and killing security forces himself.

At least two people were killed, and as many as 70 have been reported injured, in the violence that happened after the kidnapping.

What does it all mean?

The Syrian military has tanks and troops stretched from the southern border with Jordan to the northwest frontier with Turkey, and from the northeast near Iraq to the west near Lebanon. Syrian military even reportedly went into Lebanon yesterday to hunt down protesters. Reports of fighting between defecting soldiers and the pro-Assad military are now common from Homs, in Idlib, and even near Damascus. The latest military crackdown on the capital is reportedly a reaction to those defecting soldiers taking shelter.

Put simply, it is hard to imagine how this widespread security crackdown can be sustained. The economic toll of such an action must be greated, and the thinner the military is stretched, the more they will be susceptible to attack and further defections. And if protests are nowhere near as large as they were during the summer, they are still large and widespread, signalling that the opposition shows no sign of backing down.

Assad's strategy of killing away his opposition has not worked, a lesson brought out by the events of yesterday. That opposition is not going anywhere, and i seems that every region of the country is now a hotbed of dissent. The President may not be ready to fall, but all hopes he ever had of putting Arab Spring in the rear-view mirror seem to be fading quickly.