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Friday
Jan282011

Israel Analysis: Can West Jerusalem Put Palestine Above Iran's "Existential Threat"?

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was complaining about the lack of awareness of the "lessons" from the Holocaust. We have not understood well enough the threat of "the renewal and expansion of global anti-Semitism".

And the threatening actor? It is "a regime that calls for the annihilation and arms itself with weapons of mass destruction in order to fulfill its nefarious intentions".

In case you are still unsure, the role is filled by Iran, even though the departing Mossad chief Meir Dagan said that Iran would not achieve a nuclear capability before 2015.

So should the Israeli public to sharpen their knives or disregard the Prime Minister clear warning that Iran remains the priority? Haaretz's Yoel Marcus picks the latter and calls on the Israeli government to focus on the Palestinian issue. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton agrees. Speaking at the World Economic Forum, he said that Israel has never had a better peace partner. Clinton continued:

If I were in Israel and I had any influence, I'd want to make that deal now. All these countries have offered Israel a political, economic and security partnership [referring to 2002 Arab League proposal], not just peace, not just normalization ... but a genuine partnership. 

All these things should make peace more likely... Can anyone imagine the Middle East or in particular the Israelis and Palestinians, will be better off if we do not do this now.

So Tehran aside, it is reported that the likely outcome of next week's Quartet (the US, United Nations, European Union and Russia) meeting will be criticism of Israel for the constructions in West Bank settlements. Therefore, Netanyahu is trying to urge the ministers in his inner Cabinet to a set of "confidence-building measures" such as easing the blockade on Gaza, removing roadblocks in the West Bank, and enabling the Palestinian Authority to take over land required to build the new town Rawabi. 

I have two questions at this point:

1) Was Meir Dagan really pressing the Government by saying it is not the right time to focus on Iran's nuclear programmes at a time when the Palestinian issue should be the one on the table? Was he reinforcing this as a window of opportunity by saying that there is no way to envisage an Iranian nuclear weapon within the next four years?

2) Even if Netanyahu's Forum of Seven agrees to a limited number of concessions following the departure of Defense Minister Ehud Barak from the Labor Party, can Netanyahu and/or his coalition partners give up the Iran card? Can they do so at a time when the world "has not learnt its lesson" from the Holocaust and "there is a great island of instability" in the region, which can even put the peace made with Cairo in jeopardy? 

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