US Politics: Previewing Obama's "State of the Union" (and How the Republicans Will Try to Pre-Empt It)

Last week was a reminder of the power of the spoken word. Not only did America celebrate the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, famed for his stirring oratory, but the US also marked the 50^th anniversary of two speeches that still resonate today. On January 20, 1961, President Kennedy delivered his Inaugural Address, renowned for the call for a new generation of Americans to “ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”

Three days earlier, President Eisenhower gave his Farewell Address. Though not as rhetorically brilliant as the speech of his successor Kennedy, the retiring Republican President made his mark on history by outlining the threats freedom faced in the United States from the military-industrial complex.  As his granddaughter Susan Eisenhower explained in the Washington Post , “the lasting impact of his message” carries weight in the post-9/11 era where: “In 2010, the United States is projected to spend at least $700 billion on its defense and security, the most, in real terms, that we've spent in any year since World War II.”

Tonight, President Obama has the opportunity to join the ranks of America's great speech-makers in his State of the Union (SOTU) Address to the nation. But he may be competing with a drama in the Senate that may rival the 221^st SOTU.

After the Republicans passed their repeal of Obama's health care bill in the House of Representatives last Wednesday, the Democrats' Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid reiterated his pledge that it would not reach the floor of the Senate for a vote. But Mitch McConnell (R-Ky), the Senate Minority Leader, insisted “If they don't want to have the vote, we'll have the vote. I won't discuss how we'll do it from a parliamentary point of view here, but it's very hard to deny people votes in the Senate, and I assure you we'll have a vote on repeal.”

McConnell would not reveal the parliamentary manoeuvere he intended to use, but a Sunday blog post on the Tea Party Nation website discussed how the process could begin on Tuesday. The Senate reconvenes at 10 a.m., after an extended break since 5 Januarym to discuss if it can change the rules that govern their deliberations. whether each new Senate can change the rules that govern their operation for the next two years.

And, as Elizabeth B, Letchworth, a former Senate Secretary explains, that process rule changes would be "important because Senator McConnell could offer a form of the health Care repeal to any or all of these needed resolutions" that will come to the Senate on Tuesday.

This manoeuvre to kill off Obama's health care plans might be a Tea Party fantasy, but Senator McConnell's statement make it something to look for before the President takes the podium. The attempt has little chance of succeeding, but if it steals Obama's headlines, it will be viewed as a major propaganda victory for Republicans.

And so to the speech. President Obama has released a four-minute video preview, that emphasised the final draft is not ready yet. But the consensus in the media is that he will concentrate on the economy and education reform, with the intent, as he outlined in his weekly address on Saturday, of ensuring that America can “Out-Compete Any Nation."

This line follows the announcement on Friday that the White House is establishing a President's Council on Jobs and Effectiveness, headed by Jeffrey R. Immelt, chairman of GE since September 7, 2001, with the mandate “to focus its work on finding new ways to encourage the private sector to hire and invest in American competitiveness". The speech is likley to acknowledge the importance of reducing the deficit, while insisting upon the need for greater investment through public-private financed ventures in renewable energy sources and the nation's infrastructure. Education reform will also be stressed, with the President arguing that his proposals to revise the Elementary and Secondary Education Act will “embrace education standards that would put America on a path to global leadership."

Thankfully for President Obama, if not for some viewers, the SOTU is a lengthy speech, giving him  the chance to include some rhetoric that is not so staid. When talking about competitiveness, there will be room to call for a reawakening of the American work ethic and an opportunity for all that will allow him to unleash the rhetorical flourishes that make a speech like President Kennedy's so memorable. Expect to see a few references to reclaiming the "American Dream" for all Americans, not just the wealthy who benefited the most from the extension of the Bush tax cuts last year.

To encourage participation in Tuesday night's proceedings, the Administration is promoting on its website a number of social media events.  Immediately following the Address, visitors to the White House website can ask questions to a panel of senior officials via Twitter (replying to @whitehouse using the #sotu hashtag), Facebook, and a webform. On Wednesday, before his post-SOTU press conference, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs will answer questions submitted on Twitter. And on Thursday, President Obama will hold a live YouTube interview answering questions posted at youtube.com/askobama.

For those who disagree with the President, they can watch Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), chairman of the House Budget Committee, who will deliver the Republican response to the President's Address. That is worth noting because Ryan is the author of the 99-page Roadmap for America's Future. The Roadmap is a long-term plan for eliminating the deficit, summarised in a Heritage Foundation report, that has drawn compliments from some, but which economist Paul Krugman dismissed as a regurgitation of failed Republican initiatives of the 1990s, “drenched in flimflam sauce".

And, of course, the Tea Party will have their say; with Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn) broadcasting her thoughts on the speech at the Tea Party Express website immediately after Rep. Ryan has finished his response.

It promises to be an interesting Tuesday with potential filibuster reform and an outside chance of Republicans forcing a repeal vote on the health care plan. But in the end it will be the power of the Presidency that draws the world's attention to Washington on Tuesday. With one of his most important weapons, President Obama has the chance to remind Americans, and an international audience, of the optimism that surrounded his election in 2008.