Iran Politics: Will the anti-Ahmadinejad Campaign Ease for the Holidays?

As Iran begins a four-day religious holiday today, there is likely to be an easing of news. 

But will there be an easing of pressure on President Ahmadinejad?

The tensions within the Iranian establishment have been present since summer 2009, in the aftermath of the disputed Presidential election, when Parliament threatened to block the formation of a Cabinet. In January, distrust and anxiety reached the point where several key figures --- including Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- met to discuss how to replace Ahmadinejad.

That immediate crisis eased, primarily because the regime was able to drive "Green" opposition underground, but the political conflict continued. And as it has escalated this autumn, the mainstream Western media has taken notice. Indeed, a lack of interest went to the other extreme, with The Wall Street Journal starting a refrain that Ahmadinejad was close to being impeached. (Max Fisher of The Atlantic is the latest singer in the chorus.)

Yesterday the Associated Press restored some balance in coverage, with Ali Akbar Dareini assessing:

Dozens of Iranian lawmakers have signed a petition seeking to make Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the first president to be summoned for questioning since the Islamic Revolution 32 years ago. [Editor's Note: Dareini corrects a mistake in The Wall Street Journal's impeachment article --- Abolhassan Bani-Sadr was summoned in 1981 but did not appear.]

However the challenge looks unlikely to succeed because the numbers fall short of the constitutional requirement that at least one-fourth of the 290 parliament members must sign the petition before the president can be questioned.

Still it was a reminder that Ahmadinejad, one of the most polarizing leaders on the international scene, also faces deep dissent within his own country and even within his own conservative political camp. However, his position appears secure as long as he continues to have the support of the country's highest authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the elite Revolutionary Guard forces. With Khamenei's strong support for the president, it is unlikely that enough lawmakers would sign the petition.

Yet, even as Dareini's article hit the news wires, it was being eclipsed: Ali Motahari, the leader of the petition, was announcing that he had more than 50 signatures, and Kalemeh later quoted Motahari that he had reached the 25% target.

To keep up with and understand the situation, the challenge is to follow all the stories underneath this headline confrontation. For example, Ahmadinejad will try to re-stake his position of authority next Monday, both to Iranians and to the world, with a major news conference before both domestic and international press. He will make claims such as the one in a speech in Zanjan this week that Iran current has two million unemployed but this will drop to 600,000 after his subsidy cuts are implemented.

Others will also make speeches. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who is establishing his own authority not by directly confronting the President but by upholding Iran's sovereignty against the hostile "West", has told a crowd in Western Azerbaijan today that "the enemy cannot penetrate our country"..

And the claims of Government mismanagement, deception, and even corruption will continue. Yesterday Khabar Online, linked to Larijani, featured the claim that even though the 5th Budget Plan has not been agreed, 2% has been handed to the Government's Planning Bureau despite the protest of key MP and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli.

As the holiday begins, we offer you this example. For months, MP Elias Naderan has been a thorn in the side of the Government, with both general criticism of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and specific denunciation of the corruption and deception of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

This week Naderan was summoned to court by Rahimi to answer for his slanders. The response from the conservative outlet Alef? It posted pictures of Rahimi's "fake" Ph.D.

So we'll try to enjoy our holiday --- it's a nice coincidence that Iran and the "enemy" US are celebrating on the same day --- but we'll keep one eye on the Breaking News wire. Political mischief-makers don't necessarily take time off for Thanksgiving.