The Latest from Iran (26 October): Microbes, Propaganda, and the US Government-Wikileaks Conspiracy

1940 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. The head of the State Inspectorate Organization, Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, has criticized the Government for not yet implementing the subsidy reform plan, saying even one day of delay causes huge losses to the national economy.

Mehr notes that the Government made support payments in three provinces last Monday but that there has been no developments since then and the lack of information has caused worries among the people.

1935 GMT: The Khamenei Roadshow. It's Day 7 of the Supreme Leader's visit to Qom, and the tension of whether he would meet senior clerics has given way to setpieces with other groups --- today's was a speech to youth and university students.

Still, it may be telling that Ayatollah Khamenei still feels he has to defend an election held more than 16 months ago. He insisted that protesters should have followed legal methods to file their challenges, and he complained about the “lack of insight” by some candidates who claimed the presidential vote was rigged.

The Supreme Leader also denounced the US and its allies, saying atrocities committed by foreign forces in Iraq and Afghanistan show that they are the "enemies of humanity" and the "result of the Western world's distance from divine thought" and the “abuse of power and wealth” by hegemonic powers.

1925 GMT: Gasoline Squeeze. Iran may be bragging today that it has provided $36 million in gasoline exports to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Armenia (see 1625 GMT), but consultants Petromatrix, citing data from China's Customs Administration, says Beijing has decreased its Iranian imports 17% to 415,000 barrels a day from 499,000 a day last year.

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that 165 doctors and professors have demanded the release of leading reformist Ali Shakouri Rad from detention.

HRANA claims that several student protesters at Elm-o-Sanat University have received sentences of one to three years.

1725 GMT: Your Friendly Political Revolutionary Guard. Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's representative in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has declared that "we didn't allow Sepah to become a means in the hands of certain persons", but "in some cases Sepah has to become active in politics".

1705 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. HRANA reports that President Ahmadinejad continues to refuse to allow the publication of data around planned subsidy cuts. Reformist MP Mostafa Kavakebian, for one, is complaining that the Parliament still has no information about implementation. However, Kalemeh says that the new price for electricity will be 4.5 times higher for farmers.

1625 GMT: Today's All-is-Well News. Ardeshir Mohammadi, head of Iran's customs organisation, claims Tehran has exported more than $36 million worth of gasoline to Iraq, Afghanistan and Armenia.

There's always a sceptic, however. Samuel Ciszuk, a senior energy analyst, says, "First of all, $36 million isn't that much gasoline and the quality is low. We will have to wait and see whether it's sustainable. The fact that they make such a statement for just $36 million shows how much they want to show they are beating sanctions."

Trade sources said the gasoline exported from Iran was 75 research octane number (RON), dubbed "Iraq grade" by oil traders, which is much lower in octane than the 95 RON used in many European countries.

And if I may also be inconvenient: the real pinch of sanctions is not on Iran's exports but on its ability to produce and/or import enough gasoline to keep its domestic market satisfied. So how's that self-sufficiency drive going?

1620 GMT: The Afghan Payments. After confirmation that Iran has paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to President Karzai's office, seven reformist MPs have asked Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki how much cash aid was paid to Karzai's office during the past five years. They have also asked for the legal basis of the payments, confirmation that the government was informed, and the source of the funds.

1615 GMT: How's That Soft War Going? Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi reminds us that the inaugural National Conference on Soft War is still going with an irony he thought up: the "soft war" pursued by the "West" was actually invented by Imam Khomeini as fought imperialism.

Moslehi also said subsidy cuts were really good and prove sanctions are ineffective.

1555 GMT: Fake Analysis of the Day. We rarely feature material from Strategic Forecasting, on the grounds that it is usually Speculative Posturing (at a cost of $349/year).

However, this headline feature is so jaw-droppingly brazen in its hypothetical that it deserves mention:

"Would a Beaten Obama Attack Iran?"

(To be fair, in the 24th and final paragraph of the fact-free article --- presumably after he has taken the money of new subscribers --- George Friedman comes clean: "This is not a prediction. Obama does not share his thoughts with me. It is merely speculation on the options Obama will have after the midterm elections, not what he will choose to do."

1545 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reza Khandan, the husband of detained lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, says she has been visited by her sister and has called off her month-long hunger strike.

Soutoudeh's sisteh Guity said the attorney had lost much weight. The two women were not allowed to speak about Sotoudeh's prison conditions.

0920 GMT: Subsidy Watch. A day after he reportedly claims that electricity prices would only go up by about $4 --- a claim immediately undermined by press accounts of bills rising 265% --- Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo has refused to give information on new rates, saying that the President has asked for no disclosure at this point.

0915 GMT: Family Feud. Forget "soft war", the real war of words in Tehran is between the pro-Government press and Deputy Minister of Culture Mohammad Ali Ramin.

Six prominent newspapers have boycotted the Press Exhibition in protest at Ramin's actions, including the removal of the head of the exhibition. Ramin has responded at a press conference by calling the six papers "Zionist".

0805 GMT: The Air Fuel Dispute. An EA correspondent follows up on yesterday's update that Iranian authorities, retaliating for the cutoff of refuelling to Iran Air planes in some European stops, are not fully refuelling the flights of British Midlands International, the only British daily carrier to Tehran.

The correspondent notes BMI's message that it is having to make short stops in third countries to refuel en route to Iran. He then adds:

I wonder how long this will carry on. One thing left unnoticed in reports is that the London-Tehran route is obviously a very remunerative one for both BMI and Iran Air. Despite the bizarre fuel situation and the public announcement of disruption, neither is scaling back their services, at least for the time being. This leads to the conclusion that the number of passengers between the two capitals is simply too high to forgo service altogether.

0715 GMT: It's a morning for announcements, but it is a partial retraction by the regime that catches the eye. The Supreme Leader's office continues to deny that Ayatollah Khamenei, in a speech last week, called all post-election protesters "microbes". 

Saham News, the website linked to opposition figure Mehdi Karroubi, has a bit of fun with the statement this morning, but beyond this, an observation: the relatively rare correction from the Khamenei office may indicate that, for all the denunciations of protesters, the Iranian public may not appreciate them being compared to bacteria.

Of course, the regime is moving swiftly on. Today's showpiece --- which is guaranteed to seize the Iran headlines in "the West" --- is the initial loading of fuel rods into Iran's first nuclear plant at Bushehr.

Personally, I prefer the show put on by Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the human rights section at Iran's judiciary. His Through-the-Looking-Glass presentation of who in the world was really commiting human rights violations concluded with this interpretation of the impending Wikileaks release of almost 400,000 documents on the Iraq War:

It seems that these [revelations] are made upon the order of the US. The message of Wikileaks documents is that the Iraqi people have been tortured by Iraq's security forces, and the only wrongdoing of Americans is that they witnessed the incidents and remained silent. This is while the US had the main role in these incidents and is the defendant.

Wikileaks working with the US Government? Now that is a scenario that would make any propagandist --- microbe or non-microbe --- proud.

More from Larijani's denunciation of the West's approach to human rights and his Wikileaks conspiracy....