The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

2125 GMT: Reports have emerged that two more journalists, Mohammad Ghaznavian and Hamid Mafi, have been detained. They join more than 60 others in Iran's prisons.

2120 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of what appears to be a serious challenge by Khabar Online, the website linked to Ali Larijani, to President Ahmadinejad. If we are on the mark, then in light of this week's suppression of Ayande News, it will be intriguing to see the Government's response to another location of "conservative" criticism.

2025 GMT: We have posted the text of Mehdi Karroubi's first interview after 22 Bahman.

1955 GMT: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has written the academic colleagues of imprisoned Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, "The espionage charges leveled against Dr. Tajbakhsh are groundless. The State Department is using every available diplomatic tool to achieve Dr. Tajbakhsh's release."

Tajbakhsh was jailed for 15 years in October on charges of espionage. Clinton said in her letter that Kian Tajbakhsh has not been allowed to meet with Swiss diplomats, who serve as the United States' diplomatic representatives in Iran, because Iran considers Tajbakhsh an Iranian citizen.

NEW Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
NEW Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
NEW Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman’s Reality “No Victory, No Defeat”
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

1940 GMT: A Friday Prayer for All. Neday-e Sabz Azadi reports, via Radio Zamaneh, that the Friday Prayers leader of Zahedan, Molavi Abdolhamid, described the Islamic Republic as a system that gives equal freedom to both pro- and anti-Government groups and allows voices of opposition to be heard: “The people of Iran brought the Revolution to victory to achieve its goals and now they demand the reviewing and realization of those goals.”


1817 GMT: Re-Assessment (cont.). The Los Angeles Times has a wide-ranging, sometimes sprawling review of 22 Bahman. At its heart, however, is an interview with a female journalist in Tehran pondering the next steps for the Green Movement:

Our response was better than getting angry and violent and paying a lot of costs and not gaining anything. I think it was a wise choice to just show the government that we disagree, and not to pay too much of a cost, and not hurry to overthrow the system, and to just consider [the day] as a step in the path that we are on and will continue.

If the government believes that the green movement is finished, they are mistaken. Actually, I don't think that they are that stupid.

1810 GMT: Student activist Vahid Abedini has been released from detention.

1615 GMT: Re-assessing. Setareh Sabety's assessment of the way forward after 22 Bahman, which we featured on Thursday, has now been extended for The Huffington Post.

1610 GMT: More on the Karroubi Attack (see 1452 GMT). The account in Saham News claims that Ali Karroubi, son of Mehdi Karroubi, was taken to Amirolmomenin mosque after his arrest, beaten severely, and threatened with rape.

1600 GMT: Like Rah-e-Sabz, the Green website Tahavol-e-Sabz is on-line on a different address after it was taken down by a cyber-attack on Friday. And Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh is also now back in operation.

1452 GMT: The 22 Bahman Attack. Fatemeh Karroubi, the wife of Mehdi Karroubi, has written to the Supreme Leader to complain about the physical abuse of her son Ali when he was arrested on 22 Bahman  during an assault on the Karroubi entourage. A picture in Karroubi's Saham News shows a bruised Ali Karroubi.

1432 GMT: On the Labour Front. The Flying Carpet Institute passes on an English translation of a Radio Farda interview with the leader of a recently-formed labor organisation at the Isfahan Steel Factory.

1430 GMT: We've posted a separate entry considering US "expert" reaction to the events of 22 Bahman.

1300 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a statement about the events of 22 Bahman.

1145 GMT: And More Clarification. An EA correspondent checks in:

Rah-e-Sabz reports that, contrary to popular perception, Ayande News is run by an ally of Mohsen Rezaei (Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate) and not of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The entire editorial team was indeed arrested on 11 February, and the current notice regarding the arrest of the editor-in-chief, Fouad Sadeghi, was placed there because of pressure by the intelligence forces. Rah-e-Sabz speculates that Sadeghi is resolutely opposed to the transfer of Iranian uranium abroad, which is why the Government might have arrested him.

1125 GMT: Important Correction. Ayande News is not operating "as normal" after the reported detention of all of its staff, including editor-in-chief Fouad Sadeghi, just before 22 Bahman (see 0920 GMT). The site has not been updated since Wednesday, when it noted the detentions and suspension of operations.

1025 GMT: Sure, Sure, Whatever. Political posturing all around this morning. Iranian state media bangs out the "self-sufficient" beat: "Iran's nuclear point man Ali Akhbar Salehi says that much to the West's surprise, Tehran will produce nuclear fuel plates within the next few months."

And American not-really-state-media (The New York Times) serves as Obama Administration "get tough" spokesperson:

With tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions hitting new levels, the United States is mounting a diplomatic full-court press in the Middle East, sending four top diplomats, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, to confer with Arab and Israeli leaders.

The envoys’ visits to Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were planned separately in recent weeks, but they now have a common purpose, administration officials said: to reassure Iran’s neighbors that the United States will stand firm against Tehran, and to enlist other countries in a global effort to put pressure on the Iranian authorities.

0925 GMT: Toeing the Line. Former Presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri has declared, "Even one foe in the Government is too much."

0920 GMT: Claim of Day. If this is true, it is a huge story. Iran Green Voice is asserting, from sources, that all staff of Ayande News were detained on the night of 22 Bahman. Ayande is not "reformist" but affiliated with Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Ayande is on-line as normal this morning. (see 1125 GMT)

0915 GMT: Free Them. A group of international organizations, journalists, writers, and publishers have written an open letter to the Supreme Leader demanding freedom for at least 60 imprisoned journalists and writers in Iran.

0910 GMT: More Numbers. Ebrahim Nabavi writes, "According to eye-witnesses, the government insists on the fact that four million loudspeakers participated in 22 Bahman."

0845 GMT: The Numbers on 22 Bahman. The Newest Deal, using Google's eye-in-the-sky imagery of Azadi Square on Thursday, offers a concise, effective repudiation to the official claims of "millions" supporting the regime on the day.

0755 GMT: On the International Front. Arms for Iran, sent by a Russian export company,have reportedly been confiscated at Frankfurt Airport in Germany.

Following the European Parliament resolution challenging Iran over internal abuses and its nuclear programme, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has sharply condemned human rights violations in Iran and demanded harsher sanctions.

And speculation continues as to why Saeed Jalili, Iran's Secretary of the National Security Council and key figure in nuclear talks, had trip to Moscow cancelled last week.

0740 GMT: We began yesterday by looking for reactions to Thursday's demonstrations, especially political re-alignments within the Iranian regime and political re-assessments within the opposition and Green movements.

We got both.

On the "conservative" side, the fightback against President Ahmadinejad's declared victory came late, but it was clear and strong in the statement of the member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari. His interview, published in the Larijani-allied Khabar Online, was a forthright challenge for "both sides" to acknowledge mistakes. That has been standard rhetoric for Motahhari for weeks; what was distinctive was his specific challenge to the Government to stop banning the press and to release all political prisoners.

Yet it was the re-assessment on the opposition side that was most striking on Friday. The let-down of Thursday slowly gave way to a more balanced reaction. That was supported in part by the emerging evidence --- which we had projected in our analyses late on Thursday and early on Friday --- that the support for the regime on 22 Bahman was not as large as first believed and certainly was not as enthusiastic.

Beyond that, however, was an even more important conclusion: hopes for 22 Bahman had been inflated and the opposition approach to the day had been very, very wrong, but this was a tactical failure, not the demise of the Green movement. Tehran Bureau, which had been striking in its pessimism late Thursday, now features an analysis by Muhammad Sahimi which swings back to long-term determination: "There is a new dawn in the struggle of the Iranian people for democracy and the rule of law. The Green Movement must develop the necessary organization and adjust its tactics dynamically in order to make further progress during this turbulent era."

More importantly than any statement from an organisation on "the outside", activists inside Iran have made that assessment. So to the next phase of this crisis.

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

2150 GMT: A Quiet Night. For the first time in days, a noticeable drop in news and chatter. So we may close shop early and welcome you to a new day in several hours.

1910 GMT: We Take It All Back --- No Rest for Ahmadinejad. Remember how we said (1225 GMT) that Ali Larijani's statement on Iran's uranium programme yesterday --- which could have just as easily been given by the President --- indicated a possible easing of tensions between Ahmadinejad and his conservative/principlist opponents?

Well, forget that. Member of Parliament Ali Motahhari, who has taken the point in the challenge to the President, has resumed the attack, and he has done so in the Larijani-affiliated Khabar Online:

NEW Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
NEW Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman's Reality "No Victory, No Defeat"
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
Videos: The 22 Bahman Protests From Around the World
Iran Document: Interview with Hossein Karroubi (11 February)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 4)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 3)
Latest Iran Video: The 22 Bahman Protests (11 February — Set 2)
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 22 Bahman (11 February — Set 1)
Latest Iran Video: 22 Bahman – TV Coverage
Latest Iran Video: President Ahmadinejad’s Speech
The Latest from Iran (11 February): Today is 22 Bahman

We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes. The differences of opinion between the government and [the opposition] might have been eased to some extent, but they still exist. Our statesmen should not imagine that people's massive presence in the Thursday rally reflects the approval of their performance.... The presence of political elite in the rally does not mean there is no longer any criticism or objection towards the regime.

Motahhari declared that the Government must stop banning the press and should release all political prisoners. And he made clear that Larijani's apparent conciliation on the nuclear issue was more of a demand that Ahmadinejad stick to a hard line against the United States:

People expect their governments not to seek compromise with big powers. The government should be honest with people and tell people if it is engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with big powers. Nor should the government tie Iran's nuclear issue to normalization of ties with the United States.

(English-language summary in Los Angeles Times)


1730 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Update. Hojjatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi takes the podium to sweep up after 22 Bahman. Very much a junior member of the Tehran FP group, he keeps it simple, "The epic [turnout] of the highly dignified Iranian nation was a manifestation of power, solidarity and national unity." And Western powers were disappointed, etc.

1605 GMT: More on Mousavi's Alleged Flight. A relative of Mir Hossein Mousavi has denied the Fars report that he was unable to fly from Tehran to Tabriz, because of crowds protesting at Tabriz's airport (see 1235 GMT).

An EA correspondent adds this twist: the crowds who arrived in Tabriz were not demonstrating against Mousavi but for him. Letting this story out, however, would have undermined the regime's projection of unity and support on 22 Bahman, thus Fars' re-telling of the tale.

1600 GMT: The sites of Tahavol-e-Sabz, Rah-e-Sabz and Kalemeh have been attacked by the Iranian Cyber Army. Rah-e-Sabz is now operating from an alternative site.

1550 GMT: Back With Not One But Two Video Specials. We've got claimed footage of the 22 Bahman attack on Mehdi Karroubi, and Mr Verde offers a detailed reading of an 8+ minute clip filmed in Azadi Square during President Ahmadinejad's speech.

Mr Verde's analysis should also be set alongside a viewing of this footage of Government supporters lining up to get free food and "Sandis" soft drinks, indifferent to the slogans being shouted over the loudspeakers.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0zAutN4MKQ[/youtube]

1255 GMT: In Case You Missed It. On Wednesday, the European Parliament adopted a sweeping resolution on human rights and nuclear issues in Iran. The headline paragraph:

[The Parliament] reminds the Iranian authorities that, in order to develop fruitful relations with the EU (European Union), Iran must guarantee fundamental human rights and respect for the principles of democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law, as this is a prerequisite for all countries which maintain political and economic relations with the EU; emphasises that the possible conclusion of a cooperation and trade agreement between Iran and the EU is contingent on respect for these values, Iran's full compliance with UNSC (United Nations Security Council and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) resolutions and the provision of objective guarantees regarding the peaceful nature of its nuclear programme and the cessation of Iran's support for terrorist activities.

1235 GMT: Totally Must-Be-True Story of the Day. Fars News is alleging that Mir Hossein Mousavi had to cancel a flight from Tehran to Tabriz last night:

Mousavi, who wanted to fly to Tabriz at 9.30 pm..., was forced to cancel (the flight), because the people of Tabriz, who heard of it in the afternoon, started to pour to the airport and block its doors and access routes. When Mousavi heard of the protesters and their blockade, he decided to withdraw, and authorities asked the people to go. Nevertheless some of them stayed there for hours.... {This is like what] we have seen in Tehran on 22 Bahman, where he met with the people's protests and had to flee.

1225 GMT: Larijani Takes Ahmadi's Hand? Looks like one advantage of the President's shift to his "We Will Enrich Uranium" line is that it puts him in step with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. He declared yesterday:

Even if US President Barack Obama dares to repeat threats of tougher sanction against us as much as ten times, we will still be determined to pursue our enrichment program, but with a much faster pace.

Whenever we make a significant breakthrough, whether it is launching a satellite into space or any other technological or scientific achievement, they quickly demonize it and claim that it is aimed at military or spying purposes. But their problem really lies with the fact that our status in the international scene is changing for the better. They can not bear to see our progress, which is why they want to keep us as an underdeveloped country.

(There are indications that the pro-Larijani Khabar Online, which had been hostile to Ahmadinejad in recent weeks, may have changed its political line. We are monitoring.)

1140 GMT: We've posted another analysis of yesterday's events, Pedestrian's "No Victory, No Defeat".

0955 GMT: Regime Beat Goes On. Uranium enrichment, rockets, satellites. Repeat as necessary.

Press TV has two more pieces this morning. Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told a rally, ""Today Iran has emerged as one of the top ten forerunners in the field of space research and technology. Our stellar progress in space science is only one of the many benefits derived from the victory of the Islamic Revolution more than thirty years ago." And former UN arms inspector Scott Ritter said on a Press TV broadcast, "I see the truth about Iran's nuclear program prevailing over the fictions" put out by analysts on "Western" media.

0950 GMT: The Green Re-Assessment. One of the key developments of 22 Bahman, beyond superficial judgements (see 0845 GMT), is the re-evaluation amongst the opposition of its political strategy and tactics for protest. Rah-e-Sabz already features an article on the subject.

0910 GMT: Peyke Iran is claiming that more than 1000 people were detained in Tehran yesterday.

0845 GMT: How the Foreign Media Was Blinded (Almost). One of the most striking reports on 22 Bahman by a "foreign" correspondent appears in Slate, written by Jason Rezaian. It's not the headline, "On the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution, the regime drowns out opposition protests", or the reports of the Azadi Square rally that are significant but Rezaian's (sometimes inadvertent) glimpses into the regime's control of the story:

For the first time in months, several members of the foreign press were allowed to cover a public event in Tehran. We all gathered at the foreign-media office of the Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance early this morning to receive credentials for the day, neon-colored vests marking us as press, and chocolate milk. We then boarded three buses and made our way to Freedom Square. I kept my eyes glued to the window waiting to catch signs of protests, but there was nothing....

We were led to a raised platform less than 100 feet from where President Ahmadinejad would deliver his speech. Unfortunately, we weren't allowed to mingle with the crowds, and those near us, mostly teenage girls, were told not to speak with us, but instead to show off their propaganda signs proclaiming "Death to America," "Death to Israel," and "Death to the U.K." Several minutes before the president began his speech, text-messaging service was cut.....

Despite the restrictions, some telling counter-points sneak out. Rezaian estimated "tens of thousands", not million, coming into Azadi. He notes, "Before the president had finished his speech—but after he had made his main points—the crowds began to disperse," as he concludes, "These events...are intended more for foreign-media consumption than for the crowds that are present. Any support won or reinforced among the locals is just a bonus."

Yet, in the end, Rezaian too falls victim to the regime's manipulations. For based solely on his glimpse out his bus window into and out of Azadi, he declares, "Today it seems clear that the street phase is over. The protests have been pushed underground, which means that the green revolution everyone has been waiting for will not be televised."

0830 GMT: The Nukes! Look at the Nukes! And here is one of those signals we mentioned below: the Ahmadinejad Government is putting its foot to the floor to ensure the nuclear issue takes precedence over any internal quibbles. Press TV declares:

"Iran's nuclear chief [Ali Akhbar Salehi] confirms that the country has produced its first batch of higher-enriched uranium for use in a medical-research reactor in Tehran. This comes after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had announced on Thursday that the country has successfully managed to complete production of its first stock of uranium enriched to 20 percent."

0820 GMT: A bit of a late start for us this morning, as we try to assess and move beyond the events of 22 Bahman. We have an insider's view of the day, provided by Mr Azadi from eyewitnesses in Tehran, and two analyses: Mr Verde writes a guest piece for EA on the regime's "Pyrrhic victory", and Scott Lucas considers the political significance for the Islamic Republic, the opposition movement, and especially President Ahmadinejad with his "ugly win".

We have also posted an interview of one of the most prominent post-election activists, Mehdi Saharkhiz, with America's ABC News on social media and the Green Movement.

Now, however, we're moving to the day after 22 Bahman. We're going to be watching for the reactions and manoeuvres of those involved with the political developments. While Iran is now in the midst of a four-day holiday, there may be some signals, not only with the setpiece of Friday prayers but with individuals and groups trying to re-align their positions.

So, not quite back to normal following yesterday's tensions, dramas, and letdowns. But then again, when has the day ever been "normal" since 12 June?

The Latest from Iran (9 February): 48 Hours to Go

2205 GMT: The Tajik Show? BBC Persian follows up on the curious story of the "release" of former Vice President Mohammad Reza Tajik from detention. Tajik appeared on the 22:30 programme on IRIB 2 saying that there was no election “fraud” and that “foreign and Zionist media” are riding the wave of the protests.

2145 GMT: Lawyer Forough Mirzaei and Mahin Fahimi, a member of "Mothers for Peace", have been released from detention.

2100 GMT: And Analysing Rumour of Day (Week? Month?). We've posted a snap analysis considering the reasons for and implications of a Rafsanjani "ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader.

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to the Supreme Leader
NEW Iran Feature: Human Rights Round-up (1-7 February 2010)
Latest Iran Video: Protest at Sharif University, Tehran (8 February)
Iran Document: Khatami Statement for 22 Bahman (8 February)
Iran Special: The 57 Journalists in Iran’s Prisons
The Latest from Iran (8 February): Staying with the Real Story

1924 GMT: Rumour of Day (Week? Month?) --- Rafsanjani "Ultimatum" to Supreme Leader. The Green site Rah-e-Sabz, without citing a source, makes the following claim:

Authorities went to arrest the wife of Mir Hossein's chief advisor Alireza Beheshti, who was already detained, on Tuesday, but could not find her. She then called Hashemi Rafsanjani from her hiding place and told him, "Look where we have got to that the grandchildren of the late Ayatollah Beheshti (Alireza Beheshti's father) have to be on the run in dahey-e fajr (the 10-Day Dawn preceding the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution)." This allegedly upset Rafsanjani to the point to tears.

During his regular Tuesday meeting with the Supreme Leader, Rafsanjani reporetedly demanded the immediate release of Beheshti and an end to these “shameful” actions. Beyond this, Rafsanjani spoke with Ayatollah Khamenei about the management of the country, the post-election crisis, detentions, and the press. The former President then allegedly gave Khamenei an ultimatum (“etmam-e hojjat”, which may also translate into “last word”) to take action.

Rah-e-Sabz says that it will publish more about this meeting later.

Now there is no way to verify the website's claim, but Alireza Beheshti has been freed. Coinicidence or validation of the report?

1920 GMT: We have posted an updated list, amidst recent arrests, of 63 journalists in Iran's prisons.

1820 GMT: Confusion over Tajik. Earlier today there were reports that Mohammad Reza Tajik, a Vice President in the Khatami Government and professor at Shahid Beheshti University, had been released with Alireza Beheshti (see 1723 GMT). Now it is being announced that Tajik has not been released but will be on television at 22:30 local time (1900 GMT) to talk about post-election events. Is this a version of the "confessions" aired on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting this summer?

1815 GMT: Ali Malihi, a journalist with Etemaad newspaper, has been arrested at home.

1730 GMT: But Nabavi Gets 5 Years. An Iranian court has confirmed a jail sentence of five years for leading reformist politician Behzad Nabavi.

1723 GMT: Beheshti Released. Mehr News is reporting that top Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti has been released on bail from Evin Prison.

1720 GMT: The Fate of the "9". Remember that, at the time of the executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahminpour two weeks ago, the Iran Government declared that nine other political prisoners faced the death penalty? Iranian state media are now reporting that one of the nine will be executed while eight will serve prison sentences.

1710 GMT: Competing Protests. Peyke Iran reports a trend in labour protests for workers to chant Green slogans.

Meanwhile, pictures from pro-Government demonstrators protesting today in front of the Italian and French Embassies.





1635 GMT: More on Human Rights. Complementing our own round-up and list of journalists (which we need to update --- it is now 65 detained in Iran's prisons), Pedestrian has posted an update on a number of cases.

1630 GMT: Crime and Punishment? Kalemeh claims, from a judiciary official, that a 23 year-old man has been arrested for the murder of a protestor, shot by a pistol, on the evening of 24 Khordad (14 June) in Tehran. The official also says that the accused --- who is not identified as member of the military, police, or Basij militia --- did not have orders from any security officials and was acting by himself.

1535 GMT. Carrot. Stick. The rumour of the day, put out by Parleman News from a source in the Tehran prosecutor's office, is that key Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti will be released within hours.

The reality of the day is that the son of Mehdi Karroubi, Hossein, has had his passport confiscated as he got off a flight from Dubai.

1525 GMT: Back from academic break to find that the Italian Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini, has claimed that "dozens" of Basij militia tried to attack Italy's embassy in Tehran today.

1205 GMT: Saleh Noghrekar, Zahra Rahnavard’s nephew and the head of the legal committee of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s campaign, has been arrested.

1200 GMT: The family members of detainee Mohammad Nourizadeh, former chief editor of Kayhan who following criticised the Supreme Leader and the head of the judiciary in a post-election letter, have been summoned to the Revolutionary Court.

1055 GMT: Tehran's Back-and-Forth Sideshow. So here's the latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry on the uranium enrichment talks:

"“The issue of a nuclear fuel swap [with the West] … is still open. We have announced our conditions in a clear and transparent way. If the other sides provide our conditions and adopt a realistic approach, it (the swap) would be possible. It (the swap) by no means goes counter to our obtaining the required fuel through other means."

1030 GMT: A Relatively Quiet Morning. No significant political moves, so as we prepare for coverage of 22 Bahman, we are trying to assess the extent of the slowdown/halting of communications, as are other front-line media covering events. Some EA sources inside Iran can still communicate with us; others appear to have been cut off.

0740 GMT: Putting on the Show. Latest on the uranium enrichment front --- Iranian state media is loudly proclaiming that Tehran, under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has begun the attempt to enrich its stocks from 3.5 to 20 percent.

0730 GMT: Qalibaf v. The Government. Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, relatively quiet in the post-election crisis but still a key political player --- and possibly a central figure in a move against President Ahmadinejad --- has again attacked incompetent officials, comparing them to "rioters".
0723 GMT: An Appeal to the Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili has visited Ayatollah Khamenei, seeking the unconditional release of all political prisoners and exclusion of "radicals" from the Government.

0720 GMT: Today's Prison Numbers. Two students have reportedly been released by Iranian authorities, but 16 more have been detained, including 14 from Amir Kabir University.

0705 GMT: Baghi, Montazeri, and the Interview That Led to Jail. Emadeddin Baghi's interview with Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, filmed two years for the BBC but never aired, has now surfaced. Baghi has been detained since December, in part because of this video. This is part 1 of 3:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lRIw8ivIYk[/youtube]

0700 GMT: Add another journalist to our list of those detained. Vahid Ostadpour has been arrested.

0655 GMT: Amidst the articles on Iran this morning, full marks to Reza Aslan at The Daily Beast as he previews 22 Bahman and puts the President's nuclear move in its place: "Ahmadinejad is trying everything in his power to change the subject....These announcements are a joke; they cannot be taken seriously."

0650 GMT: Imprisoning Dissent. On Monday, former Deputy Foreign Minister Mostafa Tajzadeh was sentenced to six years in prison for his threat to "national security". Here is an example of that threat in a speech before the election (hat-tip to Pedestrian):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzqJY8JjTJM[/youtube]

In the days of the Shah, the people of Iran had every kind of freedom, except for political freedom. When one of the slogans of the revolution became esteghlal, azadi, jomhooriyeh eslami [independence, freedom, the Islamic Republic of Iran], by “freedom” they only meant political freedom. Which other kind of freedom was it that we didn’t have? You could freely practice your religion. If you were the type who wanted to go to the mosque, you could, if you wanted to go to a bar, you also could. The path was open. The freedom we did not have was political freedom. We did not have a free press, we did not have free political parties, we did not have free elections, we did not have free unioN....

With what rationality did the Imam [Khomeini] put aside the Constitution [during the time of the Shah]? His most important reason, the brightest, most historic [reason] he put forth, was when he said: “Our fathers, our mothers, in another time, thought that this Constitution [the one under the shah] was the best. Today, their children are mature and wise, they recognize that they want a new Constitution.” He thus acknowledged the right of every generation to govern its nation on its own....

It is imperative that the election be free, and if for any reason, anyone undermines this freedom, they are acting against the law. They tell us: “Don’t worry” [about fraud in the election]." Well, we are worried. I personally am very distraught over what Mr. Mahsouli [Ahmadinejad's Minister of Interior in 2009] is doing over at the Interior Ministry. They are shuffling around and changing everybody these days, even the secretaries. I don’t know what they are doing in there that has become so secretive and confidential.

0645 GMT: We've posted the debut of what we hope will become a regular feature: Tricia Sutherland looks over the past week in a "Human Rights Round-up".

0620 GMT: So another day in the countdown to 22 Bahman begins.

Monday was more a day of manoeuvre and anticipation than high drama. The Supreme Leader did put out a high-profile statement but, despite the headlines of "punching" Iran's enemies and declaring the Islamic Republic's supremacy, there was little beyond the rhetoric. Both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami used meetings and interviews to reiterate demands and determination, while making clear that their approach was not tainted by foreign intervention and within the framework of the Republic.

And, of course, the regime continued its efforts to ensure that their supporters, rather than the opposition, have the public space to themselves on Thursday. There was a steady stream of reports of detentions. Loudspeakers were set up alongside the likely route of the Green movement's march, and communications continued to be restricted, with claims that stations like Voice of America Persian are now jammed.

What is harder to read, in part because of those fogged communications, are the preparations for the demonstrations. Is the claim of "3 million on the streets" --- taken not from an opposition spokesperson but from a source inside Tehran's police headquarters --- best assessment, a bit of sensationalism, or even disinformation to set up a let-down when the crowds fall short of that number?

Wait-and-see time.