The Latest from Iran (25 February): Misleading Statements?

2110 GMT: Not-Over-The-Top Statement of Today. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testifying to a Congressional committee, reveals that the current manoeuvres over Iran's uranium enrichment are just like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:

My reading of what happened with President Kennedy is that it's exactly what he did. It was high-stakes diplomacy. It was pushing hard to get the world community to understand, going to the UN, making a presentation, getting international opinion against the placement of Russian weapons in Cuba, making a deal eventually with the Russians that led to the removal of the weapons.

That is the kind of high-stakes diplomacy that I'm engaged in, that other members of this administration are, because we take very seriously the potential threat from Iran.

2100 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. After all the political positions (take your pick) he adopted at the Assembly of Experts, Hashemi Rafsanjani used a ceremony at the tomb of the late Ayatollah Khomeini to issue a warning about "uninformed individuals" (who are they?): "These individuals shirk from their responsibilities and make irrelevant declarations, thus causing the leadership to bear the responsibility of all the actions that the people reject."

1935 GMT: Diplomatic Poses (cont.). Well, I guess Washington had to strike its own posture given the statements of President Ahmadinejad and his Syrian counterpart Bashir al-Assad in Damascus today (1335 GMT). Here's State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley:

As the secretary [Hillary Clinton] reiterated yesterday, we have expressed our concern directly to President (Bashar) Assad about Syria's relationship with Iran. This is ultimately a decision that Syria has to make, but as President Assad assesses Syria's long-term interests, he need only look around the region and recognize that Syria is increasingly an outlier.

We want to see Syria play a more constructive role in the region. One step would be to make clear what Iran's need to do differently and unfortunately there was no evidence of that today.

The key here is that it is a spokesman making the statement, not the President, not the Secretary of State. Yes, of course, the US would prefer that Damascus put Iran into isolation. But they know that, given the regional dynamics, Syria will not publicly cut off Tehran. So the real diplomacy will take place away from these statements.

1925 GMT: Back from a lengthy academic break --- the US Ambassador to Britain was in Birmingham today --- to catch up on the full force of Iranian propaganda. Here is the "confession" of Jundullah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, tailor-made to put the US as the main sponsor of his terrorism:

After Obama was elected, the Americans contacted us and they met me in Pakistan.They met us after clashes with my group around March 17 in (the southeastern city of) Zahedan, and he (the US operative) said that Americans had requested a meeting.

I said we didn't have any time for a meeting and if we do help them they should promise to give us aid. They said they would cooperate with us and will give me military equipment, arms and machine guns. They also promised to give us a base along the border with Afghanistan next to Iran.

They asked to meet me and we said where should we meet you and he said in Dubai. We sent someone to Dubai and we told a person to ask a place for myself in Afghanistan from the area near the operations and they complied that they would sort out the problem for us and they will find Mr. Rigi a base and guarantee his own security in Afghanistan or in any of the countries adjacent to Iran so that he can carry on his operations.

They told me that in Kyrgyzstan they have a base called Manas near Bishkek, and that a high-ranking person was coming to meet me and that if such high-ranking people come to the United Arab Emirates, they may be observed by intelligence people but in a place like Bishkek this high-ranking American person could come and we could reach an agreement on making personal contacts. But after the last major operation we took part in, they said that they wanted to meet with us.

The Americans said Iran was going its own way and they said our problem at the present is Iran…not al-Qaeda and not the Taliban, but the main problem is Iran. We don't have a military plan against Iran. Attacking Iran is very difficult for us (the US). The CIA is very particular about you and is prepared to do anything for you because our government has reached the conclusion that there was nothing Americans could do about Iran and only I could take care of the operations for them.

One of the CIA officers said that it was too difficult for us to attack Iran militarily, but we plan to give aid and support to all anti-Iran groups that have the capability to wage war and create difficulty for the Iranian (Islamic) system. They reached the conclusion that your organization has the power to create difficulties for the Islamic Republic and they are prepared to give you training and/or any assistance that you would require, in terms of telecommunications security and procedures as well as other support, the Americans said they would be willing to provide it at an extensive level.

NEW Iran Analysis: The Assembly of Experts Mystery
Latest Iran Video: Rafsanjani’s Daughter is Confronted
Iran Special: Interpreting the Videos of the Tehran Dorm Attacks
The Latest from Iran (24 February): Shocks and Erosions

1350 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Hengameh Shahidi has been arrested again.

Ebrahim Yazdi, former Foreign Minister and head of the Freedom of Movement Iran, underwent open heart surgery soon after his 10-day release yesterday. His family said that the surgery was a success.


1340 GMT: Trying to Shut the Door. The Supreme Leader has returned to his rhetoric of last June. In a statement reported by Iranian state media, he said those not accepting the results of the Presidential election "would be disqualified from participating in the Islamic system, and they have already lost their credibility". Certain individuals caused the post-election turmoil because they wanted to "deny the vote of the people."

1335 GMT: Damascus Poses. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have made their declarations during the Iranian President's visit.

Assad gave a lecture to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over her comments that the US is "troubled" by Syrian ties with Tehran, "We hope that others don't give us lessons about our region and our history. We are the ones who decide how matters will go and we know our interests. We thank them for their advice."

Ahmadinejad was even bolder, "(The Americans) want to dominate the region but they feel Iran and Syria are preventing that. We tell them that instead of interfering in the region's affairs, to pack their things and leave."

No real surprises in either man's pose. What is more important is whether there is any substantial support from Damascus for Iran, and more specifically Ahmadinejad, beyond the rhetoric of increased cooperation and cancelling of visa restrictions.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, vowed increased cooperation during a meeting in Damascus and canceled visa restrictions between the countries.
1330 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. An activist updates that Mousavi campaign aide Asghar Khandan has been sentenced to 2 years and 74 lashes. Another aide Jahanbakh Khanjani, a former senior official in the Ministry of Interior, has been released on bail after eight months in detention.

1038 GMT: Claim of Day. According to Kalemeh, Iran's Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, Mohammad Hosseini, has said that "there is no censorship" of the press.

1035 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad is in Damascus for talks with Syrian President Bashir al-Assad. Let's see if he can trump Ali Larijani's political manoeuvre.

1000 GMT: Larijani's Nuclear Move. This looks like it may be big news. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, after talks with Japanese officials, has said Japan's offer to enrich Iran's uranium "has the substance to be worth discussing. We want to deepen the discussion on it."

That would be a major shift from Iran's line since November that uranium had to be enriched or swapped inside the country, and it is a dramatic change in Larijani's previous hostility to third-party enrichment. A likely assumption is that the Speaker is representing the views of the Supreme Leader.

So now the key political question: is Larijani also speaking for the President or is he making a move to claim personal credit, surpassing and pushing aside Ahmadinejad?

0950 GMT: The Rigi Mystery. It may be that Iranian state media, when it finally settled on the story that the leader of Jundullah, Abdolmalek Rigi, was detained on a flight from Dubai to Kyrgyzstan, had it right (and that our reports of Rigi's detention last week were inaccurate). The deputy chief of Kyrgyzstan's national airline has confirmed that a plane was forced to land in Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on Tuesday (in fact, other information indicates that the interception occurred Monday night) and two passengers were taken away by Iranian authorities.

0905 GMT: The Wrong Lawyers. An unexpected but still stunning story from Rooz Online about the screening of "unsuitable" human rights lawyers:

Last week the administrative committee of Iran’s bar association has disqualified nearly half of the candidates seeking to serve on Iran’s bar association.

The official website of the Iranian Bar Association reported yesterday that 36 candidates running for management positions at the Association’s headquarters were disqualified. The Association’s President, Seyed Mohammad Jondoghi-Kermanipour...said, “Today we received a letter from the administrative judicial tribunal, which stated that, pursuant to their previous letter, only 43 candidates were qualified, the remaining candidates having been disqualified for failing to meet the specified criteria.”

[As well as] Jondoghi-Kermanipour, other prominent attorneys such as Abdolfatah Soltani, Naser Zarafshan, Abdolsamad Khorramshahi, Mohammad-Ali Dadkhah, Nemat Ahmadi, Farideh Gheirat, Goudarz Eftekhar-Jahromi (former head of the Association), Ali Najafi-Tavana, Reza Nourbaha, Mohammad-Hossein Aghasi, Jahangir Mostofi, Akbar Sardarizadeh, Ramezan Haji-Mashadi have been disqualified.

0855 GMT: Satire of Day. Ebrahim Nabavi sets a Philosophy Quiz for readers. A sample question:

[Government spokesman] Gholam-Hossein Elham said, "Cutting off AN's government is the insurgents' next project." What is the logical mistake in this sentence?

1 - There exists no government to be cut off.
2 -  The government will be cut off by itself. There is no need for the insurgents to do anything.
3 - Even if the insurgents killed themselves, they could not stop the downfall of the government.
4 - The Agha [Supreme Leader] himself has started this project a long time ago.

0840 GMT: The Forgetful Assembly. Amidst the confusion over the statement/non-statement from the two-day meeting of the Assembly of Experts (see separate analysis), the Green website Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the divisions within the body since the election and declares that it is suffering from "Continuous Alzheimer's".

0825 GMT: Comparing the Numbers. Iran News Now, using video and photographs, compares the non-crowd at the President's speech in Birjand, Khorasan, yesterday with the masses who turned out for a Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign rally and concludes:

Let’s look at the crowd gathered in Birjand for Ahmadinejad...and let’s be realistic. This thing is FAR from over. The aspirations of the Iranian people will not go unheeded.

EA's Mr Verde adds, "The interesting fact about the turnout (if one can claim it is interesting at all) is that even in a place close to Ayatollah Khamenei’s hometown of Mashhad, people don’t really care about Ahmadinejad."

0820 GMT: Economy Watch. Mohammad Reza Khabbaz, a member of Parliament's Economy Committee, has denounced President Ahmadinejad's proposed budget as "unrealistic".

0815 GMT: This is a Secure Regime? Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Hamedani, in his statement yesterday, announced that the number of Basiji bases in Tehran would be increased from 6 to 22.

0800 GMT: Wednesday was marked by loud proclamations from the Government. There were the attempts to limit the damage of the video of June's attack on Tehran University dormitories, the aggressive promotion of the "terrorist" threat from Jundullah to Kurdish groups to the Green Movement, and the President's sparsely-attended speech in eastern Iran (see  inset.

However, the most intriguing statement by far was the supposed proclamation of the Assembly of Experts supporting the Supreme Leader and warning against the "sedition" of opposition leaders. This morning, however, it looks this was a non-statement, an attempt by pro-Ahmadinejad members of the Assembly and media to create the image of a regime ready to crush Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami (and, probably, to back Hashemi Rafsanjani into a corner). We have a special analysis.

Israel Interview: Netanyahu on Israeli Culture and Security (22 February)

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview to Haaretz's Ari Shavit. He said that the Palestinian Authority is giving signals of lifting pre-conditions to start negotiations. Asked about public criticism against the Cabinet initiative to launch a restoration program of historical sites in Israel, including locations in the West Bank, he defended the programme on the grounds of security:

Middle East Inside Line: Sarkozy on Palestine State, Barak in US for Iran Talks, Son of Hamas Founder Spied for Israel

The dominant global culture is endangering the cultures of smaller nations. Our problem is particularly acute. We are living in this country because we are linked to it; we were exiled, and we have returned. There's no people that needs to deepen its roots in its land more than we do. That is why I believe national security doesn't only depend on military and economic might, but also on enhancing the young generation's knowledge of our past, and strengthening its connection to our land.

TRANSCRIPT:


Shavit: Benjamin Netanyahu, a year into your term, observers seem to agree: You're an impressive survivor, but just a survivor. The government you lead has no vision, no destination. It's not going anywhere.

Netanyahu: "That is completely and utterly unfounded. My vision is of an Israel that is a world technological superpower, anchored in values, reaching peace from strength. To this end, we are working to jump-start the economy, to augment our security and to strengthen Israel through inculcating basic national values. I see all this as part of an economic, educational and cultural revolution that is just beginning.

Your criticism partly stems from the fact both Palestinians and Syrians have adopted a strategy of unwillingness to negotiate. They present us with extremist preconditions that they did not present to earlier Israeli governments. I don't know any other government in the world that would enter negotiations under conditions that determine in advance how they should conclude. The critics expect us to accept the Palestinian and Syrian dictates; they describe the acceptance of those dictate as a vision. I don't see it as a vision. The vision is to empower Israel economically, militarily and culturally so as to enable it to make true peace with its neighbors. Not peace on paper, rather peace that will last.

It will take time for the Palestinians and Syrians to retreat from the positions they have taken. I think the Palestinians, at least, may be backing down. There are signs that negotiations with them will begin in the foreseeable future.

Shavit: Today, the cabinet met in Tel Hai to launch a program involving restoration of historical sites. Many see this plan as ridiculous and anachronistic. They say it's irrelevant to the present-day problems facing Israel.

Netanyahu: Yigal Alon once said that a people that doesn't know its past cannot be certain of its future. In the storm that is sweeping societies and states across the globe, a process of cultural superficiality is taking place: The dominant global culture is endangering the cultures of smaller nations. Our problem is particularly acute. We are living in this country because we are linked to it; we were exiled, and we have returned. There's no people that needs to deepen its roots in its land more than we do. That is why I believe national security doesn't only depend on military and economic might, but also on enhancing the young generation's knowledge of our past, and strengthening its connection to our land. These are the values I was raised on. These are values familiar to any Israeli over the age of 40. And they are the values that must be renewed today.

David Ben-Gurion believed the foundation of our nation-building involved studying the Bible, walking the land and preserving archaeological sties. These values have been eroded over the last 30 years, and we are trying to stop that process. Among other things, this involves preserving our cultural treasure troves: Hebrew songs, Jewish and Hebrew writings, films, plays that have been videoed, photographic archives. These assets are being depleted, lost. I don't think it's ridiculous or anachronistic to try and save them. I don't think there's a contradiction between being open to the world, and preserving our culture and imparting it to our youth. The Americans know how to appreciate the Lincoln Memorial, the Gettysburg National Cemetery and the Alamo site in Texas, but this does not affect their openness to technological innovation.

I'll give you an example. [Tel Aviv's] Rothschild Boulevard is a thriving street of cafes and bars, of innovative street shows and 'White Night' festivals. I think it's wonderful. But at No. 16 Rothschild Boulevard, there's a peeling old hall where Ben-Gurion announced the establishment of the State of Israel. Why not renovate and reopen it? Why not allow the young people who are out having fun on the boulevard to go inside and see what it represents? I'm certain they would like that. This is why I see the resolution we made today as one of the most important in many years.

Shavit: Which of the sites slated for renovation are you particularly fond of?

Netanyahu: Tel Hai, obviously. My father arrived at Rosh Pina in 1920, and in 1923 he broke his arm playing soccer. He was treated in the beautiful old hospital in Safed by the same physician who treated Trumpeldor, and he and others told my father of the famous words that Trumpeldor uttered before he died - probably based on the Latin phrase: dolce et decorum est pro patria mori. I think the spirit of sacrifice embodied by Tel Hai is still just as vital today, not so that we will die, but so that we can live.

Shavit: There's another plan you are going to present to the cabinet this week - not about historical legacies but about transportation. You intend to pave roads and build railroad tracks on an unprecedented scale. Why spend money that we don't have on asphalt and concrete?

Netanyahu: It's not that much money. We're talking about some NIS 30 billion over 10 to 15 years. In terms of our gross national product, this is quite manageable. The country has been concentrated for 60 years between Gedera and Hadera, with one main transportation corridor 'copied' along Highway No. 6. The Negev and the Galilee are off the map. Both economically and in terms of the expansion of the population and closing gaps, there's tremendous importance to integrating the north and south in the transportation network.

The United States carried out a similar revolution twice: first in the 19th century, with trains, and then in the 1950s, with highways. This is why you can hit the road in Boston and reach Los Angeles without stopping at a single traffic light. In Israel, you can't go from Kiryat Shmona to Tel Aviv without waiting at lights. This is what we're going to change. We won't just bring the center to the north: We'll bring the north to the center.

We'll increase local tourism, increase employment, but most importantly, we'll facilitate social mobility. Look at the revolution happening in Yokneam and Or Akiva, which were seen as God-forsaken places until they started blooming thanks to nearby highways, rail lines or intersections. Together with the Israel Land Administration reform and the reforms in planning and construction, the new routes will encourage faster growth, open up opportunities and free us from being stuck between Gedera and Hadera.

Shavit: Wouldn't it be better to invest the money in education? NIS 30 billion could revolutionize elementary, high school and university education.

Netanyahu: We'll be investing in education, too. But it's important to understand that investing in transportation infrastructure creates growth. We believe it will contribute enormous resources and add some 2 percent to annual growth, creating new budget sources to fund education, health and welfare for the elderly. Investment in roads is a prime growth engine. Together with our other recent moves, it will help increase the size of the national pie, which we can then divide up according to different needs: security, education and society. At the end of the day, in one year we've done more to promote our vision than many other governments.

Shavit: I won't ask you about Dubai, of course. But I'll ask you this: Would you say that today you still have the same faith in the Mossad and its chief?

Netanyahu: I won't comment on journalistic speculation, even from such an esteemed journalist as Ari Shavit.

Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Killing, French FM on "Palestinian State", Moscow Missiles to Tehran?

Israel's Official Response on Dubai: Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said on Saturday that there was no evidence tying Israel to the assassination of Hamas strongman Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai. He added:

I don't forsee a crisis with European allies because there is nothing that ties Israel to the assassination.

Britain, France and Germany all share our interests in the battle against global terror, therefore there will be no crisis, instead our relations [with these countries] will continue to deepen.

Palestinian-French Relations: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the French Journal du Dimanche that the assassination in Dubai underscores the need for peace in the Middle East and demonstrates the need for an immediate recognition of a Palestinian state.

Before Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's scheduled visit to Paris next week, Kouchner said, referring to Abbas's reportedly acceptance of indirect talks under U.S. mediation:

France is training Palestinian police, businesses are being created in the West Bank... It follows that one can envision the proclamation soon of a Palestinian state, and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before negotiating its borders.

Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad had said on Friday:

If by mid-2011, the political process has not ended the [Israeli] occupation, I would bet that the developed state of Palestinian infrastructure and institutions will be such that the pressure will force Israel to give up its occupation.

Russia to Deliver S-300s to Iran: Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying that Russia intends to fulfill a contract to supply S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran. He said:

There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it. Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems.

It is absolutely incorrect to put the emphasis on the issue of S-300 supplies... and to turn it into a major problem, to say nothing of linking it to the discussion on restoring trust in the purely peaceful character of Iran's nuclear program.

Syrian-Israeli Row: Following the meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with the French Prime Minister Francois Fillon on Friday, Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari warned Israel Saturday that any new Middle East war would be catastrophic for the region and beyond.

Middle East Inside Line: Row over Dubai Assassination, Palestine Authority to Re-Start Talks?

Pressing Israel on Dubai Assassination: Following the use of French, British, German and Irish passports by the suspected assassins of Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai, European states demanded further clarifications from Israel. Israeli diplomatic opinion is split, with some worrying about the image of Israel whilst others think the crisis will vanish soon. "At this stage, there is no evidence linking Israel to the incident, and if that continues, the affair will subside quickly," one senior Israeli official predicted.

Interpol published wanted notices and images on Thursday of the 11 people in the suspected hit squad. Dubai Police Chief Lt.-Gen. Dahi Khalfan Tamim called on Interpol to seek the arrest of Meir Dagan, urging it to issue a “red notice against the head of Mossad.”

Hamas said the two Palestinians arrested in the killing of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh are former members of the rival Fatah movement's security forces, with links to Fatah's senior security official Mohammed Dahlan. Haaretz also says that the two Palestinians were at one time members of the Palestinian Authority's security forces in Gaza, but only after Hamas took over the Strip in June 2007. Dahlan and Fatah deny the charges.



Palestinian Authority to Restart Talks? Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger, after a visit to Ramallah, told Israeli officials that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas would start indirect talks with Israel next week, according to a senior government source in West Jerusalem.

Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, speaking to a delegation of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jenin, complained about Israeli incursions. He said:

While there is interest on both sides in promoting Palestinian development and progressing toward statehood, Israel’s military operations in PA-controlled areas not only run operational risks, but they undermine our credibility and standing. We need actions taken by the Israelis to be consistent with the notion of a state in evolution.

Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Assassination, Ayalon Appeal to US, Washington's Man in Syria, and More

Uproar over Dubai Assassination: Discussions and accusations are running at full speed over the assassination of senior Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel room. Dubai police chief Dahi Khalfan Tamim said that "it is 99 percent, if not 100 percent, that Mossad is standing behind the murder," and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband on Thursday demanded Israel's full cooperation in investigating of the fraudulent use of UK passports by the killers. On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown promised that his government would launch an inquiry into the matter.

Speaking to a memorial rally for Mabhouh in Gaza, Hamas political director Khaled Meshal said from Damascus, "We call on European countries to punish Israel's leaders for violating laws. Israel deserves to be placed on the terror list."

Iraq Snapshot: The Dispute over “Democracy” and Elections (Alaaldin)

Official "wanted" notices, with the faces of 11 suspected Israeli secret agents, were released Thursday by the Interpol website.



Ayalon's Play for US Support on Palestine: Speaking at the Jerusalem Conference on US-Israel relations, Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon criticized the Palestinian Authority and then praised the "unique" relationship with Washington:

The Palestinians have signed agreements that have called on them to dismantle terrorist groups and collect illegal weapons while they focus on the issue of the settlements, this is wrong and the settlements should not be singled out.

We also call on Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and President Mahmoud Abbas to cease the incitement against Israel. They should stop not only the incitement in the schools, mosques and websites but should also refrain from traveling to various capitals around the world and vilifying Israel and calling for Israel's relations with a third state or international organizations to be held hostage to the conflict.

We have excellent relations with the US and its uniqueness is that regardless of minor disputes, the overall relationship is never affected. Every facet of our relationship bodes well and is the cornerstone for stability in our region. We welcome the important work of Senator [George] Mitchell who came recently to the region and placed an offer on the table. Israel accepted and we are still waiting to hear from the Palestinians.

US Tops Up Relations with Damascus: Washington has formally named Robert Ford, a career diplomat, as its new ambassador to Syria. After meeting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State, said: "I have no illusions about the challenges. But my meeting with President Assad made me hopeful that we can make progress together in the interest of both of our countries."

Bomb in Iraq: Outside an Iraqi government compound in Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, a bomb exploded killing at least 13 people and wounding at least 20 people.