The Latest from Iran (19 February): Finding the Real Stories

2100 GMT: Human Rights Front. The Iran Human Rights Documentation Center has issued a statement challenging Iran's presentation on Monday at the UN Human Rights Commission: "United Nations human rights experts must immediately investigate Iran’s prisons, including allegations of rape, torture, and the detention of people for peacefully exercising their rights to freedoms of expression and assembly."

NEW Iran & the “Non-Bomb”: The Real Story on Tehran’s Nuclear Programme
NEW Iran Book Update: No More Good Reads in Tehran
NEW Iran: Are The Banks Failing?
Iran Document: Today’s Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (18 February)
Iran Analysis: The “Now What” Moment (Farhi)
Iran: Getting to the Point on Detentions & Human Rights (Sadr)
Iran: Another Rethink on Green Opposition (Ansari)
Latest on Iran (18 February): Watching on Many Fronts

1910 GMT: And A Prisoner Released. Javad Askarian, an aide to Mehdi Karroubi, was released yesterday after a week in detention.

According to Saham News The veteran of the Iran-Iraq war had been sent to Evin prison on 10 February after being summoned by the intelligence ministry for providing “some explanations.”


1905 GMT: Another Political Prisoner. Iranian authorities have sentenced student activist Morteza Samiari to six years in prison. Samiari, an executive member of Iran’s national student union, was arrested because he received an open and official invitation to meet with representatives of a European Parliamentary Committee in Tehran.

1900 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Hardman Ahmad Khatami taking charge in Tehran today, and he is ready to gloat. Apparently "rioters" did not even bother to show up on 22 Bahman, disappointing the international media (you know, the reporters who were bused directly from the press centre to Azadi Square and back, not stopping and not Passing Go on the way) who wanted to relay “disturbances and clashes” rather than reflect the “epic” support of people for the Islamic Republic.

1740 GMT: Moscow's Slapdown. It's news that Russia has demanded "clear explanations" from Tehran about its nuclear programme. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said:

We are very alarmed and we cannot accept this, that Iran is refusing to cooperate with the IAEA. For about 20 years, the Iranian leadership carried out its clandestine nuclear program without reporting it to the IAEA. I I do not understand why there was such secrecy.

But it's even more news that Iranian state media is highlighting the apparent division between Tehran and Moscow.

1600 GMT: BloggingHeads. As it's a slowish afternoon, I've been listening to this discussion between Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation and former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum about Iran. These are two of the most prominent analytic voices in Washington.

Striking to hear, therefore, the issue of whether Iran should be treated with respect and dignity reduced to "this is a country whose top three exports are pistachios, carpets, and saffron...aside from oil and gas, so it doesn't have a lot of claim to respect". And troubling to ask, after all 36 minutes....

How much knowledge of events inside Iran emerges in this discussion?



1500 GMT: We Pause for Levity. OK, this may not be serious news coverage, but it's Friday afternoon and I am already smiling at the breathless declaration, "Iran's Navy on Friday took the delivery of the first indigenously designed and developed guided missile destroyer Jamaran in the presence of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei."

Then the photo comes in. I think only two words will suffice: Caption Competition:



1350 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Radio Zamaneh summarises last night's releases: Omid Mehregan, author, translator, and journalist released after two weeks; Ardavan Tarakemeh, film student and cinema critic, on $30,000 bail, after more than three weeks; Orouj Ali-Mohammadi, former governor of Tabriz; Safoura Tofangchi (her two daughters and husband are still detained); Mohammad Dardkeshan, a political activist with ties to the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, after two months.

1315 GMT: The Supreme Leader Says "No Nukes". Ayatollah Khamenei on the draft IAEA report: "Iran will not get emotional in its response to these nonsensical statements, because we have often said that our religious tenets and beliefs consider these kinds of weapons of mass destruction to be symbols of genocide and are, therefore, forbidden and considered to be haram (religiously banned). This is why we do not believe in atomic bombs and weapons and do not seek them."

1245 GMT: Well, Here's a Nuclear Surprise. Not. Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, called the IAEA's draft report "baseless". He said the cited documents were "fabricated and thus do not have any validity".

1240 GMT: The Rise of Rahim-Mashai. Yet another role for President Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 0815 GMT): he has been appointed the President's deputy with full authority for "Rahyan-e Nour", the caravan trips to the battlegrounds of Khuzestan in southwestern Iran.

1100 GMT: A new Green website, Mardomkhabar, has been launched.

1055 GMT: The authorities are still jittery about a show by the opposition. Tehran police chief Ahmad Reza Radan has warned that those arrested during the celebration of Chaharshanbe Souri ("Fire Festival") will not be freed until the end of Iran's New Year celebrations.

1045 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online has recycled the attack of MP Mus al-Reza Servati on the President's budget --- the Parliament would question Ahmadinejad over "irregularities", but is prevented from doing so by political considerations --- by reprinting the interview in English.

Khabar is also featuring an article, "Experts are warning on a drop in the oil production of the country," even as Iran's Oil Ministry is seeking a 25 percent increase by 2015.

0938 GMT: Iran's Nuclear Spin. Press TV is portraying the International Atomic Energy Agency report as "two-sided", verifying "the non-diversion of declared nuclear material" but "call[ing] on Iran to further discuss and cooperate on alleged issues".

0930 GMT: Punishing the Cleric. Kalemeh claims that Molana Abdol-Hamid, the Sunni Friday Prayer leader in Zahedan in eastern Iran has been prevented from leaving the country.

In his Friday Prayer address last week Abdol-Hamid described the Islamic Republic as a system that gives equal freedom to both pro- and anti-Government groups and allows voices of opposition to be heard: “The people of Iran brought the Revolution to victory to achieve its goals and now they demand the reviewing and realization of those goals.”

0925 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Reporters and Humanright Activists in Iran reports that Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafar Dolatabadi has personally handed down a 16-count indictment to Bahareh Hedayat during an interrogation session at Evin Prison. Charges include spreading propaganda against the regime, taking part in post-election events, talking to foreign media organizations, insulting the Supreme Leader, insulting the President, and conspiring to act against national security.

0820 GMT: It is reported that the prominent German insurers "Münchner Rück" and "Allianz Versicherung" (the largest insurance firm in Europe) are pulling out of Iran because of the political situation.

0815 GMT: Another Office for Rahim-Mashai. President Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, may be widely disliked, but he continues to pile up the honours of office. The latest title is chief of pilgrimage and culture of Razavi Province, whose capital is the important religious city of Mashhad.

0810 GMT: Economy Watch. The leading reformist MP Nasrullah Torabi has criticised the flaws and the deceptive figures in the Ahmadinejad budget, claiming it is based on an estimate of 12-15% inflation rather than the true figure of 20-25% and that the development budget is only 20% of the total expenditure rather than the declared 35%.

0740 GMT: Friday is likely to be a Distraction Day. The "Western" media are likely to be possessed and obsessed by the nuclear story, running the Iran Imminent Threat headlines. They will do that even though the real story is that Tehran is nowhere close to nuclear weapons capability. How do we know? Well, because the Obama Administration said so on Thursday --- see our separate analysis as well as the draft of the International Atomic Energy report.

In Iran, the regime will maintain its post-22 Bahman strategy, declaring that all is now well while condemning foreign instigation of a supposedly marginal protest. Friday Prayers in Tehran will be one venue for the display.

We'll be looking elsewhere, however. The meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see separate document) was a big signal yesterday that the opposition is re-assessing and preparing for its next surge. Theirmessage from the two men was "Be Patient. We're Working on This"; we'll be looking for reactions.

And of course the "establishment" challenge to President Ahmadinejad continues to pick up momentum. Economy Watch today has a piece assessing the state of Iran's banking sector.

We also report this morning from the  Cultural Front: it appears that the Iranian Government is blocking the booklovers' social site Goodreads as a threat to the regime.

The Latest from Iran (6 February): Eyes on the Real Prize

2200 GMT: And The Pace Accelerates. Hard to keep up tonight --- Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has now made another move for 22 Bahman, following up the cleric's declarations today with a list of proposals for reconciliation. We have posted them in a separate entry.

2100 GMT: An Extraordinary Offer? We have posted what we think might be a significant move by the "conservative opposition" to the President: an open letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi with the offer, "Back Khamenei and We Can Move Against Ahmadinejad".

1950 GMT: Another Attack on Ahmadinejad's Camp. Ayatollah Safi Golpaygani has effectively asked for the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, to be put on trial. Once again, the challenge is circulated through the pro-Rafsanjani Ayande News.

NEW Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
NEW Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
NEW Iran Space Shocker: Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
NEW Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction
NEW Iran Document: Iranian Journalists Write Their Overseas Colleagues About 22 Bahman
NEW The Netherlands: Court Throws Out Ban on Iranian Students
Latest Iran Video: Claimed Protest in Southern Iran (1 February)
Latest Iran Video: What Does the Iranian Public Really Think? (4 February)
Iran Analysis: The Missing Numbers in the Economy
The Latest from Iran (5 February): Into the Tunnel

1800 GMT: We're taking a break for a while, so we have posted a Saturday Special: "Iran's Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West".

1650 GMT: Not Us. Both Iran's head of police, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam and his Tehran counterpart Ahmad-Reza Radan have declared they had no role in the Kahrizak Prison scandal.

1645 GMT: A Less Upbeat Approach for 22 Bahman. The Kargozaran Party, fostered by Hashemi Rafsanjani in the 1990s, has put out a different, pessimistic criticism of the Government, noting that the revolutionaries of 1979 are either without hope or in jail. It states that these are difficult times for the country and the people, whose rights are ignored, and difficult times for political parties who are under pressure. They have restated Ayatollah Khomeini's slogan "Islamic Republic, not a word less or more".

1640 GMT: No Conciliation from Khamenei. Reformist websites are featuring the claim that the Supreme Leader turned down a request from Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili to free top Mousavi advisor Alireza Beheshti, saying that he would not interfere in the case and was leaving it to Iran's judiciary.

1630 GMT: For What It's Worth. I suspect that --- at this point --- this is no more than posture, but Iran's Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has announced that a second group of members of Parliament has sued Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And another warning from Sobh–e-Sadegh, the magazine of the Revolutionary Guard, which has condemned the Green movement leaders and asked them to repent before 22 Bahman or face being "confronted and punished harshly". (English-language summary)

1610 GMT: We have now posted Mehdi Karroubi's open letter, published today: "The common face of this movement is holding to the right to vote, free elections, a free press, the unconditional freedom of political prisoners, the reform of the work of governing and legislating and respect for the people’s civil rights."

1550 GMT: And From the Other Corner. After 72 hours of relative quiet, the "reformist" opposition has revved up today. Former President Mohammad Khatami has made another call for 22 Bahman (original in Parleman News):

We should not think that after the victory of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February everything is done, but the fact is that 11 February is only a beginning of the hard efforts of the people in order to achieve the goals and demands of the revolution.

Reform is nothing separate from this path and that is why we believe that it has deep roots and cannot be eliminated.

And here comes Mehdi Karroubi with a double declaration: we are about to post the full text of his latest statement on his website Saham News. Meanwhile, he has given an interview to the German magazine Der Spiegel, restating his defense of protest and condemnation of the Government in recent weeks:

The political prisoners must be set free, we need freedom of the press and freedom of assembly, our electoral law must be changed and a free election must take place. But then the current government would hardly be able to hold on to power.

1540 GMT: Now This is Getting Interesting (cont.): First there is Speaker of Parliament's Larijani assault on the President, then there is his deputy Mohammad Reza's Bahonar's criticism, as he warned Ahadminejad supporters, "At least for the sake of your own benefit do not condemn the previous Presidencies."

And there's more: Bahonar claimed that the Presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) was the "best and most productive time for the country since the Revolution". eras.

1525 GMT: Larijani Fights Back Against Ahmadinejad. Now this nuclear business is getting interesting. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, speaking at Tehran University, has put out a series of criticisms of talks on uranium enrichment: the claim of the "West" to be concerned about Iran's nuclear programme is just "political fraud"; its manoeuvres are “double-sided and prejudicial”; “Iranians are not so gullible" as to believe the negotiations are genuine.

A heads-up, however, to Western news agencies who headline: "Iran's Larijani Blasts West Over Nuclear Deal". It's not the West who is his primary target, but the one Iranian who is too "gullible" in this affair: a Mr. M. Ahmadinejad.

1205 GMT: Once Again, With Feeling. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam has issued another warning that protest on 22 Bahman will be put down:

Now that the different dimensions of the sedition are clear, we won't show any more tolerance. Police will act firmly to defend the society's security and those who break the law will be dealt with severely.

Moghadam also returned to his declaration that Iran's police would take control of the Internet and mobile-phone texting to break the demonstrations: ""The new technologies allow us to identify conspirators and those who are violating the law, without having to control all people individually."

1155 GMT: Back in Iran. Ahh, here comes the fight-back on Ahmadinejad's nuclear move. Ayande News passes on the objections of the "hard-line" Kayhan to any swap of Iran's uranium stock outside the country.

1125 GMT: And the Sideshow. Almost all media are now jumping the nuclear cliff, jumping into the phase of "Western" reaction to Foreign Minister Mottaki's statement last night. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates takes the soundbite lead, "I don't have the sense we are close to an agreement" (watch to see if the Turks, whom Gates was meeting in Ankara, are as dismissive). The BBC adds more cold water from the German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, and the European Union's head of foreign policy, Catherine Ashton.

1010 GMT: The Main Event. Despite Iranian Foreign Manouchehr Mottaki's attempt to put attention on the nuclear issue (see separate entry) at the Munich Security Conference, the post-election crisis made the agenda during Mottaki's public discussion with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt.

Mottaki insisted that most Iranians accepted the result of the June Presidential election "except a very few people who started violations, who did crimes, who burned houses and buses and damaged anything in the streets". He challenged the audience, "Are you tolerant in your countries to violations and crimes?"

Bildt asked Mottaki for a promise that nine political prisoners condemned to death would not be executed ---"that would clearly have the most detrimental effect on the other aspects of the (EU-Iran) relationship" --- but Mottaki returned to the refrain of an 85 percent turnout in the election and an Ahmadinejad victory by 11 million votes. The remark brought hisses and boos from the audience.

(This exchange was noted by The Earth Times. We're still looking for a sign that Western "mainstream" media, led by the nuclear issue, have taken any notice. Meanwhile, credit to the German television station which did put forward questions on the internal situation, as well as the nuclear matter, to Mottaki in an interview.)

0945 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? We apologise: it's not all nukes for the Iranian Government today. President Ahmadinejad visited a girls' school today to declare that more than 1200 educational and sports projects have been launched around Iran.

0940 GMT: The Committee on Human Rights Reporters updates on prominent writer and literary critic Khalil Darmanki, detained for almost 40 days in ward 209 of Evin Prison.

0935 GMT: We've split off our first update --- noting the Iran Government's effort, using a "deal" on the uranium enrichment issue, to turn eyes away from the forthcoming 22 Bahman protests --- as a separate entry.

0925 GMT: The International Human Rights Campaign in Iran highlights the case of seven students arrested after a protest at Tehran University, condemning the execution of Ehsan Fattahian, on 16 November. The whereabouts of Pakhshan Azizi, Amanj Heidari, Leila Mohammadi, Ahmad Ismaili, Sarveh Veisi, Abdullah Arefi, and Hajhar Yousefi are still unknown. Sources say three of the students have been on hunger strike amidst torture, intimidation, and threats of rape by Ministry of Information agents.

0915 GMT: 40 Nobel Prize laureates have taken out an advertisement in The New York Times denouncing "the repression of the Iranian people" by the Ahmadinejad Government.

0855 GMT: No! Look Over Here! More from Iran's state media: Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi opened two new missile production plants on Saturday, just three days after Iran fired a rocket carrying live animals into space."

0840 GMT: Non-News of the Day (So Far). Despite heated and anxious rumours across the Internet, the regime did not carry out the executions of nine political prisoners (four pre-election, five post-election) sentenced to death for mohareb (war against God).

0835 GMT: Some of the News that the Iran Government Would Prefer You Not Notice. We've posted an open letter from Iranian journalists to their overseas colleagues, urging them to cover the most important stories --- rather than the State set-pieces --- on 22 Bahman (11 February).

Amnesty International has published a statement, "Unite for Human Rights in Iran on February 11th", declaring:

Since blogs and websites like Twitter and YouTube were virtually the only way the Iranian people could expose the horrific treatment being inflicted on them in the days following the contested Presidential election, we expect that Iranians will turn to the Internet once again to carry their messages. That is why we are asking everyone to show their solidarity online on February 11th – whether it’s on your blog, website, or social networking profile.