Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)

Although this interview on CNN is a few days old, I think Gary Sick's evaluation of the political situation in Iran --- from the Green Movement to the state of the regime to the nuclear talks --- is amongst the best to come out of the US. I am struck in particular by his assessment that short-term "success" for the regime (repression of protest) conflicts with long-term "success" (legitimacy).

Later this morning, I came across the opposite on the analytic spectrum. Richard Haass, head of the Council on Foreign Relations, gets so tangled up, amidst his recent call for "regime change" and the snap perception that the Green Movement "failed" last week, that he declares, "Preventive strikes. The earlier we do them, the better." That plays into the hands of Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal, a long-term advocate of an aerial attack: "I think the question that is raised by the failure of the so-called Green Movement to come out in force is whether the movement has actually crested. It gained strength after the election. I think it had its high point in December."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qcr16MpZRQ4[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

Part 1 of 2

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofMJx_L1YDU[/youtube]


Part 2 of 2

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWNOp7YtCJc[/youtube]