The Latest from Iran (13 February): Re-assessment, Renewal

2125 GMT: Reports have emerged that two more journalists, Mohammad Ghaznavian and Hamid Mafi, have been detained. They join more than 60 others in Iran's prisons.

2120 GMT: We have posted a snap analysis of what appears to be a serious challenge by Khabar Online, the website linked to Ali Larijani, to President Ahmadinejad. If we are on the mark, then in light of this week's suppression of Ayande News, it will be intriguing to see the Government's response to another location of "conservative" criticism.

2025 GMT: We have posted the text of Mehdi Karroubi's first interview after 22 Bahman.

1955 GMT: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has written the academic colleagues of imprisoned Iranian-American scholar Kian Tajbakhsh, "The espionage charges leveled against Dr. Tajbakhsh are groundless. The State Department is using every available diplomatic tool to achieve Dr. Tajbakhsh's release."

Tajbakhsh was jailed for 15 years in October on charges of espionage. Clinton said in her letter that Kian Tajbakhsh has not been allowed to meet with Swiss diplomats, who serve as the United States' diplomatic representatives in Iran, because Iran considers Tajbakhsh an Iranian citizen.

NEW Iran: Reading Khabar’s “Conservative” Attack on Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran: Mehdi Karroubi’s 1st Interview After 22 Bahman (13 February)
NEW Iran: Desperately Seeking Sensible US Comment about 22 Bahman
NEW Iran: “Allahu Akhbar from the Rooftops” — The 2009 Photo of the Year
Iran Video Special (2): Decoding the 22 Bahman Rally in Azadi Square
Iran Video Special (1): The 22 Bahman Attack on Karroubi?
Iran: 22 Bahman’s Reality “No Victory, No Defeat”
Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Pyrrhic Victory
Iran: The Events of 22 Bahman, Seen from Inside Tehran
Iran on 22 Bahman: Ahmadinejad “Wins Ugly” (This Time)
Iran: Greening YouTube — An Interview with Mehdi Saharkhiz
The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Day After 22 Bahman

1940 GMT: A Friday Prayer for All. Neday-e Sabz Azadi reports, via Radio Zamaneh, that the Friday Prayers leader of Zahedan, Molavi Abdolhamid, described the Islamic Republic as a system that gives equal freedom to both pro- and anti-Government groups and allows voices of opposition to be heard: “The people of Iran brought the Revolution to victory to achieve its goals and now they demand the reviewing and realization of those goals.”


1817 GMT: Re-Assessment (cont.). The Los Angeles Times has a wide-ranging, sometimes sprawling review of 22 Bahman. At its heart, however, is an interview with a female journalist in Tehran pondering the next steps for the Green Movement:

Our response was better than getting angry and violent and paying a lot of costs and not gaining anything. I think it was a wise choice to just show the government that we disagree, and not to pay too much of a cost, and not hurry to overthrow the system, and to just consider [the day] as a step in the path that we are on and will continue.

If the government believes that the green movement is finished, they are mistaken. Actually, I don't think that they are that stupid.

1810 GMT: Student activist Vahid Abedini has been released from detention.

1615 GMT: Re-assessing. Setareh Sabety's assessment of the way forward after 22 Bahman, which we featured on Thursday, has now been extended for The Huffington Post.

1610 GMT: More on the Karroubi Attack (see 1452 GMT). The account in Saham News claims that Ali Karroubi, son of Mehdi Karroubi, was taken to Amirolmomenin mosque after his arrest, beaten severely, and threatened with rape.

1600 GMT: Like Rah-e-Sabz, the Green website Tahavol-e-Sabz is on-line on a different address after it was taken down by a cyber-attack on Friday. And Mir Hossein Mousavi's Kalemeh is also now back in operation.

1452 GMT: The 22 Bahman Attack. Fatemeh Karroubi, the wife of Mehdi Karroubi, has written to the Supreme Leader to complain about the physical abuse of her son Ali when he was arrested on 22 Bahman  during an assault on the Karroubi entourage. A picture in Karroubi's Saham News shows a bruised Ali Karroubi.

1432 GMT: On the Labour Front. The Flying Carpet Institute passes on an English translation of a Radio Farda interview with the leader of a recently-formed labor organisation at the Isfahan Steel Factory.

1430 GMT: We've posted a separate entry considering US "expert" reaction to the events of 22 Bahman.

1300 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a statement about the events of 22 Bahman.

1145 GMT: And More Clarification. An EA correspondent checks in:

Rah-e-Sabz reports that, contrary to popular perception, Ayande News is run by an ally of Mohsen Rezaei (Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate) and not of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The entire editorial team was indeed arrested on 11 February, and the current notice regarding the arrest of the editor-in-chief, Fouad Sadeghi, was placed there because of pressure by the intelligence forces. Rah-e-Sabz speculates that Sadeghi is resolutely opposed to the transfer of Iranian uranium abroad, which is why the Government might have arrested him.

1125 GMT: Important Correction. Ayande News is not operating "as normal" after the reported detention of all of its staff, including editor-in-chief Fouad Sadeghi, just before 22 Bahman (see 0920 GMT). The site has not been updated since Wednesday, when it noted the detentions and suspension of operations.

1025 GMT: Sure, Sure, Whatever. Political posturing all around this morning. Iranian state media bangs out the "self-sufficient" beat: "Iran's nuclear point man Ali Akhbar Salehi says that much to the West's surprise, Tehran will produce nuclear fuel plates within the next few months."

And American not-really-state-media (The New York Times) serves as Obama Administration "get tough" spokesperson:

With tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions hitting new levels, the United States is mounting a diplomatic full-court press in the Middle East, sending four top diplomats, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, to confer with Arab and Israeli leaders.

The envoys’ visits to Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were planned separately in recent weeks, but they now have a common purpose, administration officials said: to reassure Iran’s neighbors that the United States will stand firm against Tehran, and to enlist other countries in a global effort to put pressure on the Iranian authorities.

0925 GMT: Toeing the Line. Former Presidential candidate Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri has declared, "Even one foe in the Government is too much."

0920 GMT: Claim of Day. If this is true, it is a huge story. Iran Green Voice is asserting, from sources, that all staff of Ayande News were detained on the night of 22 Bahman. Ayande is not "reformist" but affiliated with Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Ayande is on-line as normal this morning. (see 1125 GMT)

0915 GMT: Free Them. A group of international organizations, journalists, writers, and publishers have written an open letter to the Supreme Leader demanding freedom for at least 60 imprisoned journalists and writers in Iran.

0910 GMT: More Numbers. Ebrahim Nabavi writes, "According to eye-witnesses, the government insists on the fact that four million loudspeakers participated in 22 Bahman."

0845 GMT: The Numbers on 22 Bahman. The Newest Deal, using Google's eye-in-the-sky imagery of Azadi Square on Thursday, offers a concise, effective repudiation to the official claims of "millions" supporting the regime on the day.

0755 GMT: On the International Front. Arms for Iran, sent by a Russian export company,have reportedly been confiscated at Frankfurt Airport in Germany.

Following the European Parliament resolution challenging Iran over internal abuses and its nuclear programme, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle has sharply condemned human rights violations in Iran and demanded harsher sanctions.

And speculation continues as to why Saeed Jalili, Iran's Secretary of the National Security Council and key figure in nuclear talks, had trip to Moscow cancelled last week.

0740 GMT: We began yesterday by looking for reactions to Thursday's demonstrations, especially political re-alignments within the Iranian regime and political re-assessments within the opposition and Green movements.

We got both.

On the "conservative" side, the fightback against President Ahmadinejad's declared victory came late, but it was clear and strong in the statement of the member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari. His interview, published in the Larijani-allied Khabar Online, was a forthright challenge for "both sides" to acknowledge mistakes. That has been standard rhetoric for Motahhari for weeks; what was distinctive was his specific challenge to the Government to stop banning the press and to release all political prisoners.

Yet it was the re-assessment on the opposition side that was most striking on Friday. The let-down of Thursday slowly gave way to a more balanced reaction. That was supported in part by the emerging evidence --- which we had projected in our analyses late on Thursday and early on Friday --- that the support for the regime on 22 Bahman was not as large as first believed and certainly was not as enthusiastic.

Beyond that, however, was an even more important conclusion: hopes for 22 Bahman had been inflated and the opposition approach to the day had been very, very wrong, but this was a tactical failure, not the demise of the Green movement. Tehran Bureau, which had been striking in its pessimism late Thursday, now features an analysis by Muhammad Sahimi which swings back to long-term determination: "There is a new dawn in the struggle of the Iranian people for democracy and the rule of law. The Green Movement must develop the necessary organization and adjust its tactics dynamically in order to make further progress during this turbulent era."

More importantly than any statement from an organisation on "the outside", activists inside Iran have made that assessment. So to the next phase of this crisis.

Comments

[Peter]

I'm interested by the remark of the organizer from the Isfahan Steel Factor labor movement in the interview reported above about the nearly total lack of attention in "activists'" publications and newspapers [he seems to be referring to the Green or protest movement] to workers' concerns.

[Catherine]

RE: Scott's post 24 about Tehran Bureau, "so look to activists inside Iran for an even more salient evaluation of where next for the Green movement. "

Actually, TB now also publishes articles and analysis by writers and journalists inside Iran who use pseudonyms - so they're both an "inside" and an "outside" outfit :-). I find their variety of opinions, mix of news, analysis and feature stories and their crown jewel Dr Sahimi a wonderful addition to Iran-focussed blogs.

I had to laugh at the suggestion whether TB = Sahimi. For a while it looked that way, but since the PBS hosting TB has considerably expanded its pool of contributors.

[Catherine]

I read 2 articles today that are like bookend pieces: one speculates on the consequences of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remaining in power as the leader of the revolution or of a possible takeover by the Revolutionary Guards; the other wonders what would happen if Iran actually went democratic. While the former is too pessimistic and the latter too optimistic (plus a couple of other debatable suppositions in each), they show the challenges faced by country and political analysts at foreign ministries in many regions who are trying to figure out what 's going to happen next.

Iranian revolution anniversary: Will Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remain in power?
By Ramin Jahanbegloo
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2010/0211/Iranian-revolution-anniversary-Will-Ayatollah-Ali-Khamenei-remain-in-power

Iran, Beacon of Liberty?
By REUEL MARC GERECHT
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/opinion/11gerecht.html?em

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

That's a vital correction, which I should have made clear. Tehran Bureau has featured excellent work by those inside Iran.

S.

[Opposition, No contact to the]

[...] hier die Einschaetzung einer Aktivistin des Green Movement ueber die [...]

[Barry]

@Gloumdalclitch

I wouldn't say that I am "obsessive" in that regard - but I am convinced of what I have been saying. "Those Who Forget the Lessons of History Are Doomed To Repeat It"

I certainly don't want this to develop to the situation of a military strike against Iran - that is what I fear most. But the very real possibility stands clearly in sight!!

I also completely understand the repression and slaughter of the past 30 years - can you not see how this also happened in Hitlers Germany to the point where he became almost unassailable? - while the "good Germans" stood by and allowed it. Can you not see the "good Germans" in Iran today - millions upon millions of them?? The majority??

In my post I alluded to the possibility of two situations - you have picked up on one of them - war. The other was also your "supernova" - which as you say implodes upon itself. Do you not think that this implosion will not be disastrous for Iran itself and the rest of the world??

It is irrelevant really what I think or want - but I can see things and can only tell what I can see. I am not a dreamer.

Barry

[Doug]

Barry,
     The "Good German" analogy is appropriate. People want to hold on to what they have. They want to go to work, come home, protect and enjoy their families. Have an ordinary leisure activity, and stay out of trouble or controversy. They don't want to get involved in politics or with any law-breakers(which they don't care to define or think about). And various comments on this website have alluded to various cherished things that people cling to and don't want disrupted. Some cling to possessions, some to religion, some to a comfortable routine, some to habits, and some just avoid fearful things knowingly or unknowingly. Some would prefer that the experts handle everything. Some would prefer that revolutionary politicians or rebels do something but at a distance from them... distance is a consequence of non-communication and misunderstanding is from propaganda.
     Demonstrations of various kinds are a form of communication that many are not comfortable with, or that many don't understand, or get the wrong message from.
     Without free speech, there is chaos and misunderstanding....
     Just as some people internally would prefer not to see unpleasant things, so too the world wants to look away unless directly provoked or threatened as they see it imminently ... Otherwise, things can wait...

[Gloumdalclitch]

To Barry
When he iranian regime implodes it won't be the apocalyptic disaster that you seem to envision. USSR collapsed, and even if it had enough warhead to blow the planet 36 times, it just collapsed, period. Iran has a weak military, is far from having a nuclear bomb and has Sadam Hussein's type rockets. We are are more talking about the grotesque North Korea, than the fearsome and irresistible third reich.
After the rigged elections, Ahmadinedjad needs to get himself a legitimacy, this is the main purpose of his nuclear gesticulation.

[cyrus]

50,000 pro-regime supporters and that's all they could gatter (paid or forced to participate) from the country of 70,000 during the regimes most important holiday!! And don't be disappointed of green movement, people aren't stuppid to protest w/o results and get arrested or killed. People are working on the most effective plans to take down the regime, such as slowly bringing more and more of the Basiji, IRGC or military personal to side with them during the day day take down the IR
And the majority of over 95% prefer this regime gone, but only a small fraction is willing to risk everything and then Mousavi or Karoubi take the credit for their fake show
people are now more fearless sharing their anti-regime opinions publicly, something that was impossible a year ago, that leads to more underground activities, you could only understand the importance of it only if you have ever lived in Iran under IR
Also Iran can not possibly mobilize a massive force as the Germans under Hitler did, Nazism used a very effective nationalist ideology that united the majority of all Germans, it had a modern vision & technology that energizd the German's nationalist support, but IR is using expired Islamic & Shiia ideology as the core of its power and is in total opposition with nationalism!! While nationalism, secularism and anti-Islamism is on the rise in Iran, miliions of proud Iranians see Islam as the source of all their struggle through out the history
Both the IR & Islam itself are doomed in Iran, the secular mental, cultural and political SECULAR revolution is comming, the mental & cultural is taking place now and the political will follow

[Barry]

@Cyrus

I hope what you say is true. We in the west are not able to really see what is happening inside Iran - but I do think it is very important for the world. I am more afraid of Iran than I am of North Korea. The future of Iran is of more significance to the world than that of North Korea.

Barry

[gunni]

Barry -

maybe I`am little late - but it takes time to get all my Enlish words together -
please don `get me wrong - it is and was always a pleasure to me to talk with
the really nice guys from the other side of the earth.
If you are assessing the political conditions in Iran are profound fascistic, you are saying there is no chance for the enlightened parts of the society to find the way out to democracy – what ever that means. The outcome of an assumption like this is terrible.
More helpful should be to go the other way around – to ask what is specific in Iran and what is different in the comparison with other totalitarian countries. You will not find any opposition to speak of in Germany in the late 1933 – but you will find many parts of society in Iran (even in the establishment), who don `t agree that the political system has changed into a crude military dictatorship.
Ever since 12.June we know that for sure.
It’s useful to make another distinction: The opposition in Iran is still growing - and not the other way around like in Germany in 1933. There are similarities of the inhuman measures in retaining power of totalitarian regimes – but it’s a fatal error not to consider the prospects of regeneration from inside.
What’s clear too is that the majority of the Iranians voted “green“- otherwise there would have been no need to cheat the electorate. The post election events demonstrated a growing political awareness. After the mass murder in 1980, 81, 88, the bloody repression of the students in 1999, after the atrocious chain murder and the constant oppression of writers, journalists and bloggers a reformist movement is growing.
If you compare the Iranian society with the “Germans darkest” time you are underestimating the green movement and you don’t consider their impact into the politics of the establishment.

But you are right to point out that the pressure of the “awful dictators” in Iran is rising – which is a clear indicator, how powerful this movement is. On the other side we really don’t know how many greens were in streets at the 22. Bahman. And – what is quite more important – how many went home after they saw the huge amount of "desperate terrible goons" on the streets to Azadi square.

On their way from the dark through the dawn to bright daylight they decided to bypass the “ nest of poison snakes”. A wise decision.

[Barry]

@gunni

Thank you for your effort to "get your English words together" - it would not take me long to get my Farsi words together, but the posting would be much much shorter!! :)

I encourage and admire your enthusiasm and positivity and perhaps should apologize for my negativity. I agree with your statement -"The outcome of an assumption like this is terrible." I know this - and it is why I am so negative.

I have always said that historical comparisons, although relevant and appropriate, always fail at some point - because the situations are not identical. It is only their similarity that can allow us to draw thoughts from a consideration of past history.

At this time 2010, there IS more opposition to the Iranian Regime than there was to the German Regime in 1933- BUT, on the other hand, the Iranian Regime is much more entrenched now than the German one was in 1933. I guess for me the importance of the comparison between these two times is that they appear to me to be "critical balancing points" - where either the disaster proceeds or is stopped from proceeding. The German disaster proceeded from 1933 - we know that. Now in 2010, the time points look similar to me - but will an Iranian disaster proceed from here? My concern is that it possibly will - because although there is much opposition to the Regime, and bickering within the political elements of the Regime, their underlying military and security strength appears to be strong and well managed/coordinated. Only time is going to tell with this.

I am not religious and cannot pray - but my hopes go out to the Iranian people, for them - and also because I understand that their destiny is going to affect my (and my loved one's) lives as well (even on the other side of the world)

Kind regards

Barry

[sara]

dear cyrus , 50,000 from the country of 70,000,000 for sure u mean ,and thanks for ur good comment.

[gunni]

Barry

I am glad that you didn`t answer in Farsi :) - the only words in Farsi I know is "Khomeini a Imam". This slogan we used some times as a "running gag" in good fun to greet iranian colleagues. I `am living next the place, where Fritz Langs
"Metropolis" was produced. This movie shows a misgiving of what was following in reality. I understand what you mean - some times I` am afraid, too. But I think it `s not the time to make this kind of comparisons - because at the moment they don`t help.
Best regards gunni

[cyrus]

Thanks for the correction @Sara 50,000 of 70,000,000 population I meant
Don't forget this, the same protesters during Qods day or Ashura didn't disappear or change their position towards the IR regime, but are growing stronger underground
The first part of the mission for the greens has already been accomblished which was to to show the world their stance against the terrorist Islamic regime in Iran and there is no need to risk their lives unless there is an effective plan
I live in Iran & have contact with people of different parts of the country from outside, no Iranian wants this regime in power except a small minority with serious financial interest in the regime.
Even the non-political clerics or religious members of IRGC don't want this regime in power and prefer a secular regime because this regime turned millions against Islam
The longer this regime remains in power, the bloodier the out come will be when people take back the country and seek to revenge

[Barry]

@Cyrus

Thanks for that .

In the past, we here have struggled to work out just what makes up "the Regime". There are Government Depts, Judiciary, Military , Security, many different Mullahs, etc - but what exactly constitutes "the Regime"??

Barry

[Barry]

@gunni

I am sorry - I thought you were Iranian?

"Metropolitan" great classic movie. I have not seen it for some time.

Barry

[cyrus]

@barry
The answer to the question of what constitutes the IR regime has been changing over the years
At the very beginning of the revolution, many different political and social oppositions to the Shah that overthrew the the previous regime had certain common goals and they were all seeking to take positions in the newly formed government, but a group of cleric followers of Khomeini decided to take over the government and by using their religious figures over the majority Shiia Muslim country secure their futures as the absolote power players in the country and control the countries economy & politics.
A group of clerics invented Velayate Faqih behind closed doors and customized the constitution in their own favor. Many of the original founders of the revolution strongly opposed that and were quickly imprisoned, threatened, forced to flee, placed under house arrest, assassinated or executed.
Since they knew that they were going to face major oppositions, they created their own defensive and offensive mechanism against any future uprising by recruiting the highly religious indivduals loyal to Khomeini and created the IRGC, Ansare Hezbullah & such. There were also opportunists that fit themselves by growing beard & using religious phrases in order to fit themselves for the positions, many thugs and gangsters during the former regime took positions in the new gov & later up graded to high positions within the system
Iran-Iraq war was very helpful in uniting the oppositio with the Mullahs since the defense of the nation was the top priority at the time.
The first stage after the IR establishment, regime was made of such religious loyaltists that backed the mullahs, but after the war many IRGC veterans of the war started to take charge.
Basij was also formed during the war since the mullahs invented human wave as a very cheap and psychologically effective way of dealing with the Iraqis. They recruited school childern, brain washed them & Khomeini ordered them plastic keys to the Heavens & reserved them virgins if they walked through mine fields
then you have the next generation of opportnists who took advantage of the open gates to power and thievery by simply joining the IRGC or Basij & upgrading to IRGC. They soon transformed the IRGC into a mafia and took over top positions there and since the mullahs needed them to survive, they used that to extort anything from top government contracts, took over many of the top enterprises during Rafsanjani's privatizations and the senior IRGC members became their servants
That second generation of IRGC that seized power was also very careful in not allowing any of the next generation recruits get any hold to power to avoid competition.

All religious loyalties has far gone and the only royalty that holds the regime together is the flow of easy money
The judiciary in reality is powerless , since it doesn't even have the power to execute the laws based on the constitution & only works based on the orders from the top.
Also the parliament doesn't have any power and is a showcase of hand picked individuals
The assmebly of experts & the supreme leader is on the top of the system, but has to be able to satisfy IRGC's demands in order to keep receiving their support
Also the IRGC mafia functions very similar to the Mafia crime families once united by Lucciano, they get along as long as all make money within their territories and once you stop the flow of $, they'll start to bite one another
Take away the oil revenue and the whole system will collapse within a month or two, even without people's protests
So what constitutes the regime: a bunch of thieves & profiteers protected by paid hungry thugs that justify anything they do under the name of religion
That's why you won't get a simple and clear answer for your question, without billions of dollars in oil revenue and what was built during the Pahlavi regime, they wouldn't have the look of a government at all and wouldn't look no better than the Taliban, Somalian or Sudani regimes
This regime could not and will not be reformed because it doesn't have any characteristics of a modern government and the sooner we remove it at any cost, the better for the future of the world as well as the Iranian people

[shangool]

I`ll give this regime max two more years.There are too many factors playing against the regime. The biggest one is they have no legitimacy in the eyes of the people. 22 Bahman will hopefully be a wake up call for the greens, they need to change their tactics. Demos alone will not bring down this regime. I think it is a tactical error to call for the demise of the Islamic republic as a whole. The marjas who oppose the regime still bevelieve in the ideology of the revolution, their voice can be powerful.The greens should not allienate them by chanting "Iranian republic", this alone can give the regime an excuse to hit down on Sanei, Ardebil and others who question SL`s religious credentials.

I believe that targeted sanctions against IRGC can be effective, I don`t see IRGC as cracking down the opposition for the sake of safeguarding the ideology of the revolution. They are about maintaining their control over the economy. At the moment we have different factions in iran who share the same goal of getting rid of the IRGC and velayat, but they speak different languages.

Raffers oppose AN but not SL publicly, the marjas, Khatami, Karroubi and Mousavi oppose AN, but they speak dearly about Khomeini and his revolution. The people(greens) are aiming at a secular Iran.

If one can join the voices of,Larijani, Qalibaf, Rezai, Raffers, Mousavi,Karroubi, The marjas, the anti AN MP`s ,opposing factions within IRGC and the greens, and combine their voice with outside pressure plus sanctions and freezing of bank accounts, then a simple blow will bring the regime down to its knees.

I disagree with those who suggest that SL will sacrifce AN in an attempt to calm things down and restore peace. A move like that from SL will only weaken his position, and he knows that. SL will stand togetheter with AN.

[Catherine]

Cyrus,
Thanks for your detailed description of the evolution of the various layers of the current power structure, their mutual interdependence and their reliance on oil money Check out this analysis:
'Hardliners Continue Efforts to Create Totalitarian Security State'
February 12, 2010

As the Islamic Republic’s crackdown on the Green Movement protestors continues to occupy center stage in both the domestic and international media, the regime is also quietly, yet swiftly, moving to lay the foundation for a totalitarian security state. The government is implementing an interlocking series of policies—encompassing the technological, legal, and social spheres—intended to tighten its control over key elements of the Iranian state.
http://persia-house.com/node/1097

[cyrus]

@catherine
Iran has been a totaliraian dictatorship since the birth of the regime, the only new thing is the fact that finally people ran out of patience & risked lives to stand against it
And also another thing to mention: the 1st generation of IRGC seniors, mainly religious or war veterans no longer play any major role in it & are just regular guards w/o any ranks & really hate what IRGC has become, also the newest generation does not play any role in the political game or financial transactions, there is only a small minority of them that controls the enterprises, drug & artifact smugglings, bribary, gov contracts, oil revenue share, etc. The rest are just making a living seving the upper ranks for a salary
IRGC dismantlement & transfer of such indivduals to military or regular police force under modern and peaceful regulations is the key to a peaceful revolution aftermath, since the IRGC dismantlement is essential

[cyrus]

And by the way, all the IRGC owned enterprises must be taken back by the government & nationalized untill the new government take place & decide wether to keep them as gov properties or re-privetize and rise $ for gov, but the employees could keep their positions under new policies
After complete dismantlemt of IRGC & other regime organizations, they should be completely disarmed unless they qualify for positions under the new gov that may require to arm

[Catherine]

Hi Cyrus,
RE: "the 1st generation of IRGC seniors, mainly religious or war veterans no longer play any major role in it & are just regular guards w/o any ranks & really hate what IRGC has become,"

Yes, I've read quite a few bloggers who comment on this fact and on the enormous similarities you also mentioned between the mafia and the small minority of IRGC power brokers that controls the enterprises. If the 1st generation of IRGC seniors no longer plays any major role in the IRGC, how could they influence others inside to peel away?

[Cyrus]

@Catherine
it's a very complicated system and it's not all about senior & junior but it's about the ones who were smart enough to be a part of engineering the IRGC's vast network
Iranians in general are the most secretive people & that makes it so difficult to understand and for me to explain to an outsider
the fact is that the way they have positioned their units and the network of spies both outside and within the IRGC does not allow any major movement to be formed, they could only form small groups and almost impossible to form any major movement
they will remain that way as self motivated sleeping cells until there is no chance for them to fail when they turn their backs on the regime and once they all start to expose themselves, then they could be united with the rest of the people
at the same time, even the low ranking IRGC officers have a good salary and they see no urgency to risk their lives for something that is uncertain
also don't forget about the Iranian military (not the IRGC), they have no reason to defend this regime and will side with people as soon as they feel the right opportunity
the level of disagreement with this regime is far greater than the disagreement there was during the Shah if just consider the difference between Iran's economy during the Shah with 1.5% inflation & 15% annual growth for 11 consecutive years and now with the inflation of of 30% and negative growth, tens of billions of surplus during the Shah is now deficit
in the past 4 years alone, Iran has made more revenue from oil & resources than its entire pre-1979 history and yet there is no sign of what happened to all that money
the IR snakes are far more trickier than any American could understand unless if you have studied both the regime and the Iranian culture for years
many of the men appear to be on the green opposition side (even pretend to be under death threats) and carefully keep that image, in reality may be the masterminds behind anything this regime is doing, even in position of ordering Khamenei what to say and what to do

[iran]

sabza nemitonan kari konan.rahbar pirozas