The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (8 February)

Related Post: Dose of Cold Reality Statement of the Day - Obama Style v. Middle East Substance

6:30 p.m.: An Israeli Cabinet minister, Rafi Eitan, has forecast that a prisoner swap with Hamas could be completed before the next Israeli Government takes office: "There's a strong probability that all comprehensive moves with Hamas ... will happen during the current prime minister's term, as from experience we know it takes around six weeks for them to put together a new government."

On the Palestinian side, a source says, "There are positive signals that an announcement on a deal is near, unless Israel backs off at the last minute."

Afternoon Update (4:30 p.m. GMT; 6:30 p.m. Israel/Palestine): Aid agencies are expressing frustration at the inability to get supplies into Gaza. United Nations official Chris Gunness said, "For us to move ahead with rehabilitation and repairs, we must get building materials into Gaza. Two hundred and twenty-one schools for 200,000 children only have 40 percent of their books because we can't get paper and glue into Gaza."

More than 21,000 homes are still destroyed or badly damaged.

A rocket from Gaza landed near Ashkelon in southern Israel.

7:50 a.m. We're waiting for news out of Cairo, where a high-level Hamas delegation including Mahmoud az-Zahar is in talks that could move toward a proposed Israel-Gaza settlement. The main sticking point seems to be the opening and control of border crossings.

Diplomats have said that the working proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire, with a prisoner exchange (which presumably included kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit), and opening of at least two crossings. The deal would be "phased", with crossings gradually opened as the cease-fire held and prisoner exchange proceeded.

7:45 a.m. The Israeli navy shelled the northern and western coasts of Gaza this morning, damaging dozens of fishing boats. A rocket has landed in a kibbutz in southern Israel.

7:35 a.m. The "Reconciliation" Battle Continues. In Turkey yesterday, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas called for Fatah and Hamas to create a consensus government. He then rejected Hamas' call for a new umbrella group to replace the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

Which, in effect, means that Abbas has thrown "reconciliation" back to Hamas: accept the PLO framework or there will be no consensus.

Morning Update (7:30 a.m. GMT; 9:30 a.m. Israel/Palestine): In a separate entry, we've had a look at US Vice President Joe Biden's speech in Munich yesterday. With media attention focused on the "new tone" of the Obama Administration and specific issues such as Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran, almost no one noticed Biden's passage on Israel, Gaza, and Palestine.



Here's the key phrase: "We must consolidate the cease-fire in Gaza by working with Egypt and others to stop smuggling, and developing an international relief and reconstruction effort that strengthens the Palestinian Authority, and not Hamas." So, six weeks, after the Israeli attacks failed to get regime change in Gaza, it seems that the Obama Administration is still supporting options that undermine the Gazan leadership, rather than getting arrangements that help the Gazan people.

A New US Foreign Policy? The Biden Speech in Munich Yesterday

Related Post: Today in Mr Obama's Neighbourhood - The Latest in US Foreign Policy (9 February)
Related Post: Transcript of Joe Biden's Speech on Obama Foreign Policy
Related Post: Obama v. the Military - Where Next in Afghanistan?

The media chat this morning will be about Vice President Joe Biden's speech to the Munich Security Conference yesterday. Our own reading is that the easy part was Biden's signals of difference from the Bush Administration. The US would act "preventively, not pre-emptively" (no more Iraq 2003, at least over the pretext of weapons of mass destruction) and multilaterally. The emphasis will not be on magic capabilities like Missile Defense, but on a wider range of diplomatic, economic, and military instruments.

"America will not torture. We will uphold the rights of those we bring to justice," Biden asserted, and he also said that the US would be constructive in finding solutions to climate change.



At the same time, Biden was careful to play the "America will be tough" card, saying the US would "vigorously protect [its] security and values, and he had a not-so-veiled challenge, if not warning, to international partners. The US would uphold alliances if they were "credible and effective" (think back to George W. Bush's 2002 lecture to the UN that it would not be "relevant" if it did not back military action over Iraq), and "America will ask for more from its partners".

Which brings us to the hard part. The Obama Administration may be far more "realist" in its approach to foreign affairs than its predecessor, but the up-front choices are daunting. Biden tried to match the Russians in the competitive co-operation, saying the US would not tolerate a Russian "sphere of influence" but continuing, "The United States and Russia can disagree and still work together where our interests coincide, and they coincide in many places."

On Iran, Biden stuck to the current script of possible diplomacy first but waved the stick: "Continue down the current course and there will be pressure and isolation; abandon the illicit nuclear program and your support for terrorism and there will be meaningful incentives."

OK, so the hope of "engagement" continues to flicker. What the media missed is that, on two other cases, Biden's signal is that the Obama White House may be charging ahead against perceived enemies, even if that rips up possible settlements and co-operation.

Consider this on the Middle East, which no one seemed to pick up yesterday or this morning: "We must consolidate the cease-fire in Gaza by working with Egypt and others to stop smuggling, and developing an international relief and reconstruction effort that strengthens the Palestinian Authority, and not Hamas." So, despite all the evidence that beating up on Gaza --- be it through Israeli military action or economic strangleholds --- is not dislodging the Gazan leadership and actually weakening Mahmoud Abbas, the US (at least in its public signals) is going to keep playing at the game that it doesn't have to accept the political realities. It will do so even if that means more deprivation and destruction in Gaza.

It is on Afghanisan/Pakistan, however, that this Administration could meet its downfall, and here Biden's "realism" led him to say, if we go down, we all go down together: ""We look forward to sharing that commitment with the government and people of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and with all of our allies and partners, because a deteriorating situation in the region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but I would suggest, somewhat presumptively, to every one of you assembled in this room."

The glimmer of light is that Biden also said the US "strategic review" on the two countries is not completed --- code for the battle between President Obama and the military on the way forward --- so Washington may pull back from its full-speed, military-first surge in Afghanistan.

If not, you can go back to Biden's speech and see where all the talk of a new, multilateral relationship actually had the makings of an almighty bust-up between the US and its European partners.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (7 February)

Latest Post: Obama vs. The Military (Part 2) - The Battle for Iraq Continues
Latest Post: Obama vs. The Military: The Battle for Afghanistan Continues
Latest Post: Twitter and the Obama Foreign Policy of Engagement: Style or Substance?

8:45 p.m. We've just put up a separate post on another heated battle between President Obama and the military, this one over Iraq.

3:15 p.m. Reports that another Iranian blogger, Omid Reza Mirsayafi, has been jailed.

3:10 p.m. Pitching in for America. In his speech at the Munich Security, NATO's Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has backed the US call for a military "surge" in Afghanistan, criticising Europe's response: ""I'm frankly concerned when I hear the United States is planning a major commitment for Afghanistan but other allies are already ruling out doing more."

I'm not sure Scheffer appreciates that European leaders thinking the military-first initiative in Afghanistan, as a dubious if not losing cause, will drain the alliance rather than bolster it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel paid lip service to the military effort but did not commit to additional deployment, especially in southern and central Afghanistan, while French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for all his warm talk of security "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", did not mention Afghanistan at all.

3 p.m. Hope in Somalia? The new President, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has arrived in Mogadishu for the first time since his election. He will be holding talks with politicians, tribal elders, and Islamic resistance groups to try to establishing a functioning government.


1:40 p.m. Reason Number 452 why the Obama Plan for Iraq Withdrawal Should be Set Aside: Collapsing Oil Prices.

The latest effort from the US military to rationalise a long-term stay comes from Lieutenant General Frank Helmick, the commander of the training of Iraqi forces. Because of diminished revenues, Helmick says, "They are not going to be able to grow as fast as they want to grow."

12:15 p.m. Biden's speech is over. He finally got to the one to watch in next weeks, calling on NATO to support US efforts in Afghanistan.

12:05 p.m. Biden offers two important confirmations: "American will not torture" and "American will act aggressively against climate change".

There are also signs of an emerging and important relationship: after Nicolas Sarkozy's call this morning for a new security arrangement "from Vancouver to Vladivostok", Biden has pointedly praised France's new cooperative relationship with NATO.

And there's a jab at Russia: ""We will not recognize any nation having a sphere of influence". Specifically, US will not join Moscow in recognising the independence of South Ossetia.

11:55 a.m. Vice President Joe Biden now speaking at the Munich Security Conference. Despite the bigging up of the speech by US officials, nothing significant so far. It's pretty much a restatement of the Obama Inaugural Address and general line on issues such as Iran. Interesting but vague statement: "America will do more. That's the good news. The bad is America will ask for more cooperation."

11:30 a.m.An interesting development, given the state of play in US-Iran relations. The Department of the Treasury has designated as a terrorist organisation the Party of Free Life in Kurdistan (PEJAK), which operates against Iranian security forces to "free" the "occupied lands of Kurdistan".

Stuart Levey, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, stated that PEJAK is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is battling Turkey has been struggling. (Ali Yenidunya)

9:15 a.m. Eight Pakistani police have been killed in a bomb attack in Punjab province. In Afghanistan, the Interior Ministry claims 10 militants have been killed.

8:20 a.m. And there's a separate entry on the continuing battle between President Obama and the military over the build-up of US troops in Afghanistan.

8:10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on a possible State Department initiative, using Twitter, to support engagement with Iran.

Morning Update (7:45 a.m. GMT; 2:45 a.m. Washington): The Kyrgyzstan Government is not backing down on its decision to close the US Manas airbase. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that "all due procedures" were being pursued for a speedy conclusion.

The Government is claiming that it receives too little payment for the base. In support of its case, and to ensure public support, it is also citing ecological concerns and highlighting the case of a Kyrgyz citizen killed by a US serviceman.

North Korea, offering a contrast to its hard-line rhetoric in recent days about relations with South Korea and its missile programme, has signalled to a former senior US diplomat that it is willing to discuss nuclear disarmament if its requests for aid are met.

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has visited Iraq and praised the provincial elections, which we analysed in detail yesterday.

Dead is Dead: The Mass Killing in Jabaliya in Gaza

I'm highlighting this story from The Washington Post because I fear it will quickly become a front-line propaganda piece to gloss over the civilian deaths in the Gaza conflict.

The Post headlines Geoff Witte's piece "U.N. Says School in Gaza Where 43 Died Wasn't Hit by Israeli Fire". Wow --- does that mean the 43 died at the hands of others, say, Hamas or a mystery force? Was the attack a fantasy? Let's read:

The United Nations said this week that Israeli mortar fire that killed at least 43 people in Gaza's Jabaliya refugee camp on Jan. 6 had landed just outside a U.N.-run school housing refugees from the fighting but did not hit the school itself.

OK, so the Israeli shells didn't kill anyone inside the shelter. They just killed people trying to get to the shelter because 1) they had told by Israel in some cases to evacuate their homes 2) their homes were getting hit by Israeli fire 3) they were panicked.

No one claimed, at least on this website, that the Israeli military deliberately targeted the school. Instead, we said that the deaths occurred because Israel was firing artillery in a built-up civilian area and that Israel might have been using a new type of mortar which was not as precise as advertised.

Indeed, this latest twist actually exposes the desperate Israeli attempt to cover-up the killing. Remember, Israeli spokesmen claimed that they were firing at Hamas fighters who were inside the school. Now, they are saying, no, no, we didn't ever fire at the shelter. The story changes depending on which straw "information" officers think they can grasp.

So Israel didn't hit the school, deliberately or accidentally, in this case. It did hit other schools, hospitals, large family houses, and tower blocks in its attacks. It did kill hundreds of civilians in this operation. It did so, in some cases, with weapons which are banned under international law. And, in almost every case, it has tried to escape responsibility for its actions.

Dead is dead. It doesn't matter one jot if that death occurred inside a building crammed with civilians or in a street crammed with civilians trying to get into that building, fleeing from attack, or just running about madly.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (6 February)

Latest Post: Hamas Strengthens Positions, Overtakes Fatah in Palestine

9:50 p.m. Israel has fired several missiles into southern Gaza near Rafah.

9:45 p.m. Hamas official Osama al-Muzaini says there has been no progress in talks with Israel over the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has demanded the freeing of 1400 Palestinian inmates, including 450 long-term prisoners, for Shalid, but Israel has agreed to only 71 of the 450.



4:15 p.m. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has restated the organisation's position on an Israel-Gaza settlement: ""We will not accept a truce unless it was in return for lifting the siege, opening the border crossings and acceleration of the reconstruction of Gaza."

Translation: unless Israel makes unexpected concessions via Amos Gilad in Cairo today, the Hamas delegation returning to Cairo on Saturday will reject any proposed deal. Whether that is effectively the end of the Cairo-based negotiations, or whether they resume after the Israeli elections on Tuesday, remains to be seen.

3 p.m. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has halted operations after the second seizure of its supplies by Hamas this week.

2:15 p.m. Egypt continues to ratchet up pressure on Hamas and Gaza at the border. The Jordanian Secretary of the Nurses Union, Salman Al-Masa’id, has been arrested and held without charge. Al-Masa'id was part of a Jordanian delegation helping with medical care in Gaza; his "crime" was to remain when the rest of the delegation left earlier this week.

12:30 p.m. An extraordinary development over Israel's "permission" for the Palestinian Authority to bring $43 million into Gaza to pay its employees so they will not show up for their jobs, thus hindering Hamas. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hailed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as "courageous" for allowing the movement of money.

Remember that $43 million is only part of $60 million the PA wished to transfer, that the PA is supposedly the Palestinian faction being backed by Israel and the US to take over in Gaza, and that Israel has made no move to support the PA's announcement of $600 million in reconstruction aid for Gaza. Despite this, Olmert faced opposition from both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who argued the money would find its way to Hamas.

11:20 a.m. A prosecutor's office in Ankara has launched an investigation as to whether Israel's invasion of Gaza involves "genocide, torture and crimes against humanity". The enquiry was started after a complaint by an Islamic human rights group naming Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

9 a.m. Diplomatic Development to Watch. A day after a Hamas delegation left Egypt without agreement on proposals for an Israel-Gaza settlement, the chief Israeli negotiator, Amos Gilad, is in Cairo.

7:45 a.m. Two rockets launched from Gaza have hit southern Israel.

7:40 a.m. Irony of the Day. The Israeli blockade of Gaza, supposedly to stem violent attacks, has halted a United Nations programme promoting non-violence amongst Gazan youth. The programme cannot get the paper it needs for leaflets.

UN official John Ging said, "I'm being obstructed in printing out the human rights curriculum that we're all so proud of having developed here and that is more important now than ever before to get on with the teaching of the responsibilities that go with human rights and to focus on making sure that these kids grow up with the right values."

7:30 a.m. A poll of almost 1200 Palestinians increased a sharp rise in support for Hamas and a decline in support for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza conflict. We've posted a summary in a separate entry.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israel has released 10 activists and journalists who were aboard a Lebanese ship intercepted yesterday as it tried to deliver aid to Gaza. The whereabouts of others amongst the 18 on the ship is still unknown. An Al Jazeera journalist says, "[The Israelis] blinded our eyes, bounded our hands, kept us in uncomfortable conditions for one hour ... they also told us not to communicate with each other in Arabic."