Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (25 February): Netanyahu Searches for a Coalition

Related Post: Virtual Gaza - Breaking the Information Blockade



Evening Update (5 p.m. GMT): Hamas and Fatah representatives have met in Cairo in advance of Thursday's "reconcilation" meeting of a dozen Palestinian groups. Ezzat al-Rishq, a member of the Hamas delegation, said, "There was a positive and promising atmosphere at ... today's session."

Afternoon Update (12 noon GMT): Israel, responding to the firing of two rockets from Gaza this morning, has struck tunnels near Rafah.

As Hamas and Fatah delegations prepare for "reconciliation" meetings in Cairo, Fatah has released 40 "security prisoners" (or, in Hamas' eyes, "political detainees").

State Department officials have said US envoy George Mitchell and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will press Israel to allow aid shipments into Gaza on their trips to the Middle East in forthcoming days:

Israel is not making enough efforts to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The US expects Israel to meet its commitments on this matter.

Israeli spokesmen are denying receiving any critical messages from Washington.

Two Qassam rockets landed in southern Israel this morning.

Morning Update (8:45 a.m. GMT; 10:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Having failed to get agreement with Kadima leader Tzipi Livni and Labor leader Ehud Barak on a possible coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud turns again to "right-wing" parties today. He will meet Israel-Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman, third in the recent elections, and smaller political factions.

Israel-Gaza-Palestine Alerts (23 February): Amnesty Criticises Israel and Hamas, Calls for Arms Embargo

Related Post: Has the Obama Administration Brought Hamas into A Palestine Unity Government?
Related Post: Text of the Amnesty International Report



Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): Even as the Obama Administration opens up the possibility of accepting Hamas in a Palestinian government (and thus meaningful truce talks with Israel), it is trying to keep up pressure on the Gazan leadership and re-insert Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah. US officials said that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will announce more than $900 million in aid 0f at a donors' conference next week, however, ""This money is for Gaza and to help strengthen the Palestinian Authority. It is not going to go to Hamas."

Afternoon Update (3:15 p.m. GMT): Ehud Barak, leader of the Israeli Labor Party, has rejected Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to join a coalition government. The two had met this morning to discuss possible terms.



Egyptian authorities, despite the limited opening of the Rafah crossing, are blocking the movement of most Gazans. Among those refused exit from Gaza was photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, whom we have featured on Enduring America. Habeeb was travelling to Europe for a speaking tour.

7 a.m. GMT (9 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Amnesty International has released a report on the misuse of US weapons by Israeli forces during the Gaza war, calling on the United Nations to launch an investigation:

Israeli forces used white phosphorus and other weapons supplied by the USA to carry out serious violations of international humanitarian law, including war crimes. Their attacks resulted in the death of hundreds of children and other civilians, and massive destruction of homes and infrastructure.

Amnesty also asked the UN to consider Hamas rocket attacks as a war crime.

Israel Radio reports that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has suspended Amos Gilad, his envoy to the Egypt-brokered talks with Hamas. As we reported last week, Gilad had criticised the Olmert Government over its "inconsistent" position, notably its insistence on the pre-condition of a prisoner swap including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

Olmert has also asked the Civil Service Commission to check if his envoy's published remarks amounted to insubordination.

After their meeting Sunday, Benjamin Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni, the leaders of the top two parties in this month's Israeli elections, have agreed to further talks on a Government coalition, although Livni said "substantial differences" remained.

Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?

Latest Post: Is Israel Winning a Covert War Against Iran?: An Alternative Analysis

The Daily Telegraph of London splashes a contemporary spy drama on its pages this morning:

Israel has launched a covert war against Iran as an alternative to direct military strikes against Tehran's nuclear programme, US intelligence sources have revealed. It is using hitmen, sabotage, front companies and double agents to disrupt the regime's illicit weapons project.

That's quite plausible, of course, given declarations such as that of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak yesterday that an Iran nuclear weapons programme would be an "existential threat" to Tel Aviv.

But then the story gets almost as murky as the covert project. The only source is a "former CIA officer on Iran" who claims, "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that [the Iranians] don't realise what's happening....The goal is delay, delay, delay [the weapons programme] until you can come up with some other solution or approach."

No direct evidence there and the only cited case is that "Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported 'gas poisoning' in [January] 2007". At the time, the US Government's Radio Farda circulated the report, supported by a Reva Bhalla of Stratfor who insisted there was "very strong intelligence" that Hassanpour had been targeted by Israel. Iranian news services countered that Hassanpour had not been employed by the Atomic Energy Organisation: "[All] nuclear experts, Thank God, are sound and safe."

Unsurprisingly, Bhalla pops up in The Telegraph for a sound-bite but adds no evidence. And the article has no other cases to test; it just asserts, based on "Western intelligence sources": "Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli 'hits', intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme."

The article lists other operations which are far more likely to be significant, such as "Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites" and "Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network for 'dual use' items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme".

Overall, however, this reads as a different type of operation, a bit of "psychological warfare" to keep Tehran off-balance over what might and might not be attempted to undermine its nuclear programme and to add the stick to the carrot of "engagement". And, given that the main sources are "Western" and the story is out of New York, this has the feel of folks in the US Government --- possibly supported by London --- putting the pressure on Iran.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (10 February)

10 p.m. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz is reporting that Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and Avigdor Lieberman of Israeli-Beitenu have had a phone conversation about a possible coalition government.

9:40 p.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in the southern Negev in Israel.

8 p.m. Voting closes in Israeli election. First exit polls have Kadima (party of Tzipi Livni) at 30 seats; Likud (party of Benjamin Netanyahu) 28; "far-right" Israel-Beitenu (Avigdor Lieberman) 15. Labor (Ehud Barak) on course for worst performance ever.

As there are 120 seats in Knesset, there will have to be a coalition with at least 61 members to form a secure Government. That in turn means that even a Kadima-Likud coalition is not sure of a majority in the new parliament.

11:10 a.m. The New York Times has an article on the detention of student Philip Rizk by Egyptian authorities after his walk with friends to raise money for Gazans.

11 a.m. Hamas official Osama Hamdan says further manoeuvres for an agreement with Israel on Gaza will now depend on  the outcome of today's Israeli election: ""If [Likud leader Benjamin] Netanyahu wins, I don't think that the current government will conclude an agreement. If the current government wins, they could reach an agreement."

10:45 a.m. I'm Still Here. Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, trying to assert his leadership as Hamas negotiates an agreement with Israel, has said he is ready to talk to Tel Aviv if "the new Israeli government a halt to new settlements".



Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The headline story is today's Israeli elections, which the media are now projecting as "too close to call" between the Likud Party of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Kadima Party of Tzipi Livni for the largest number of seats. The equally important --- indeed, more important --- issue will be the make-up of the inevitable coalition that has to be formed to govern Israel.

Meanwhile, former United Nations envoy Ian Martin will head a five-member panel investigating last month's Israeli attacks on UN facilities in Gaza.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (6 February)

Latest Post: Hamas Strengthens Positions, Overtakes Fatah in Palestine

9:50 p.m. Israel has fired several missiles into southern Gaza near Rafah.

9:45 p.m. Hamas official Osama al-Muzaini says there has been no progress in talks with Israel over the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has demanded the freeing of 1400 Palestinian inmates, including 450 long-term prisoners, for Shalid, but Israel has agreed to only 71 of the 450.



4:15 p.m. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has restated the organisation's position on an Israel-Gaza settlement: ""We will not accept a truce unless it was in return for lifting the siege, opening the border crossings and acceleration of the reconstruction of Gaza."

Translation: unless Israel makes unexpected concessions via Amos Gilad in Cairo today, the Hamas delegation returning to Cairo on Saturday will reject any proposed deal. Whether that is effectively the end of the Cairo-based negotiations, or whether they resume after the Israeli elections on Tuesday, remains to be seen.

3 p.m. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has halted operations after the second seizure of its supplies by Hamas this week.

2:15 p.m. Egypt continues to ratchet up pressure on Hamas and Gaza at the border. The Jordanian Secretary of the Nurses Union, Salman Al-Masa’id, has been arrested and held without charge. Al-Masa'id was part of a Jordanian delegation helping with medical care in Gaza; his "crime" was to remain when the rest of the delegation left earlier this week.

12:30 p.m. An extraordinary development over Israel's "permission" for the Palestinian Authority to bring $43 million into Gaza to pay its employees so they will not show up for their jobs, thus hindering Hamas. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hailed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as "courageous" for allowing the movement of money.

Remember that $43 million is only part of $60 million the PA wished to transfer, that the PA is supposedly the Palestinian faction being backed by Israel and the US to take over in Gaza, and that Israel has made no move to support the PA's announcement of $600 million in reconstruction aid for Gaza. Despite this, Olmert faced opposition from both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who argued the money would find its way to Hamas.

11:20 a.m. A prosecutor's office in Ankara has launched an investigation as to whether Israel's invasion of Gaza involves "genocide, torture and crimes against humanity". The enquiry was started after a complaint by an Islamic human rights group naming Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

9 a.m. Diplomatic Development to Watch. A day after a Hamas delegation left Egypt without agreement on proposals for an Israel-Gaza settlement, the chief Israeli negotiator, Amos Gilad, is in Cairo.

7:45 a.m. Two rockets launched from Gaza have hit southern Israel.

7:40 a.m. Irony of the Day. The Israeli blockade of Gaza, supposedly to stem violent attacks, has halted a United Nations programme promoting non-violence amongst Gazan youth. The programme cannot get the paper it needs for leaflets.

UN official John Ging said, "I'm being obstructed in printing out the human rights curriculum that we're all so proud of having developed here and that is more important now than ever before to get on with the teaching of the responsibilities that go with human rights and to focus on making sure that these kids grow up with the right values."

7:30 a.m. A poll of almost 1200 Palestinians increased a sharp rise in support for Hamas and a decline in support for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza conflict. We've posted a summary in a separate entry.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israel has released 10 activists and journalists who were aboard a Lebanese ship intercepted yesterday as it tried to deliver aid to Gaza. The whereabouts of others amongst the 18 on the ship is still unknown. An Al Jazeera journalist says, "[The Israelis] blinded our eyes, bounded our hands, kept us in uncomfortable conditions for one hour ... they also told us not to communicate with each other in Arabic."