The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (15 February)

Afternoon Update (4:15 p.m.): Israeli officials say Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (pictured) told Cabinet colleagues on Sunday that kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit must "come home" before there is any opening of border crossings, a central demand by Hamas for an Israel-Gaza ceasefire.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party, has ruled out a coaliation government with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, which finished a narrow second in last Tuesday's election. Livni wrote in private note to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, captured by television cameras, ""I have no intention of being in a unity government headed by Bibi [Netanyahu] --- and don't hint that."

Meanwhile, a clear sign that the Palestinian Authority is in trouble as it tries to maintain some position in Gaza. PA leader Salam Fayyad says that salaries of the Authority's employees in the area are not being paid so the money can be used for aid projects. The PA has been hindered by Israel's restriction on the movement of cash into Gaza, and its workers have now declared a strike.
Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The political tensions between Israel and Turkey, which we have followed closely in recent weeks, escalated yesterday after an Israeli general told an international conference that Turkey should "look in the mirror" after its criticism of Israeli action in Gaza. General Mizrahi pointed to Ankara's treatment of its Kurdish minority and the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus.

Although the Israeli Defense Forces reprimanded Avi Mizrahi (pictured) for his remarks, the Turkish Foreign Ministry requested "an urgent explanation" from the Israeli Ambassador.

Anticipating the New Israeli Government: Netanyahu or Livni?

According to the Associated Press, the Obama Administration has praised the Israeli elections and has called the voting by millions of Israelis the sign of a strong democracy. The White House spokesman Robert Gibbs stated that the President Obama was excited to work with the new Israeli government, and on Wednesday, Obama called Israeli President Shimon Peres to express his gratitude for American and Israeli model democracies and to emphasise his personal efforts for a two-state Israel-Palestine solution.

The question is how much room there is for such a solution. While relatively moderate Tzipi Livni, the leader of the Kadima Party is ready to pursue peace talks with the Abbas Government, Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of Likud, considers the US-backed negotiation process as a waste of time.

Meanwhile, Livni has demonstrated her "hawkish" reflexes in the name of "Israeli interests" during Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. This was reminiscent of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's 2006 Lebanon War when there were serious questions in Israelis' minds whether the inexperienced Olmert was able to handle the weight of the Israeli politics after his predecessor Ariel Sharon's illness. The only difference is that Olmert had to prove himself after Sharon was no longer able to be the Prime Minister, while Livni had to sharpen her position against Hamas, "the common enemy" of all Israelis, to increase Kadima`s votes. Waging war against Hamas while giving priority to the peace process with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas --- including giving up land, dismantling settlements in West Bank, and sharing Jerusalem --- indicate the balance of her expected policies. Livni`s position is closer to peace when compared to that of Netanyahu, but the Iron Lady offers no concession on the most sensitive notion of the Israeli society: "security".

For Netanyahu, as we see in his election motto (“Likud: Because the state needs to be run”), Kadima has been incompetent in its rule, including its conduct of the Lebanon War and the most recent Gaza War. Netanyahu has criticized the government for being insufficiently strong against Hezbollah and Hamas in these two wars and insisted on the continuation of Operation Cast Lead. Netanyahu`s "security pack", which includes toppling Hamas in Gaza, keeping the Golan Heights, and expanding current settlements in the West Bank, is much more important than giving priority to the peace process.

It is clear that a peace agreement is unlikely to come under an Netanyahu administration, but his agenda is wide enough to keep peace proponents busy, at least in the mid-term. What is missing in this analysis, however, are the Obama Administration`s regional policies the application of these to Israel and its new Gvoernment, as it seeks a "secure" Israeli society and/or "strong" steps for peace.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (13 February)

Related Post: Anticipating the New Israeli Government - Netanyahu or Livni?



1:55 p.m. An Israeli airstrike has killed one Gazan militant and critically wounded another. Two other people reported injured.

1:45 p.m. It looks like a prisoner swap involving Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is part of the cease-fire package. Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) is quoted by an Egyptian news agency, ""We want the release of our detainees in exchange for Shalit. If Israel agrees to our list, we will make the deal."

Hamas has submitted a list of 1400 prisoners; diplomatic sources say Israel is willing to free closer to 1000.

10:20 a.m. A series of details, some of them conflicting, are emerging over the possible Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangement.

All accounts agree the time period is 18 months but the status of border crossings is unclear. Hamas has demanded a full opening, but the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot is reporting that Israel will only about 80 percent of goods to pass. Prohibited items would include "pipes, machines and other raw materials liable to be used to manufacture rockets and explosives", and the two sides are still at odds over cement, concrete and construction iron.

Reuters is reporting that the crossings will have international monitors and also some Palestinian Authority guards. Turkish forces may also be involved.

There are also differences in reporting on a possible prisoner swap involving kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has denied any arrangement involving Shalit, but Reuters, citing "Western and Palestinian officials", says a prisoner exchange is part of the deal.

7:40 a.m. Three Qassam rockets have hit the western Negev in Israel.

Morning Update (5:55 a.m. GMT; 7:55 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Hamas' declaration that a cease-fire agreement with Israel can be reached within 72 hours, which we noted in our last update yesterday, continues to be the top development. Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) says the proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire with opening of all border crossings.

The key question, of course, is whether Tel Aviv has indeed signalled its readiness that it will sign or whether Hamas is taking this public line to press the Olmert Government into acceptance.

Elsewhere, Egypt has seized 2200 tons of food and medical supplies that the Doctors' Syndicate was trying to take into Gaza and arrested two members of the aid committee. The seizure is both part of Egypt's general campaign to keep pressure on Hamas by limiting aid and part of Egyptian internal politics. The committee and the arrested men are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (6 February)

Latest Post: Hamas Strengthens Positions, Overtakes Fatah in Palestine

9:50 p.m. Israel has fired several missiles into southern Gaza near Rafah.

9:45 p.m. Hamas official Osama al-Muzaini says there has been no progress in talks with Israel over the release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has demanded the freeing of 1400 Palestinian inmates, including 450 long-term prisoners, for Shalid, but Israel has agreed to only 71 of the 450.



4:15 p.m. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has restated the organisation's position on an Israel-Gaza settlement: ""We will not accept a truce unless it was in return for lifting the siege, opening the border crossings and acceleration of the reconstruction of Gaza."

Translation: unless Israel makes unexpected concessions via Amos Gilad in Cairo today, the Hamas delegation returning to Cairo on Saturday will reject any proposed deal. Whether that is effectively the end of the Cairo-based negotiations, or whether they resume after the Israeli elections on Tuesday, remains to be seen.

3 p.m. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency has halted operations after the second seizure of its supplies by Hamas this week.

2:15 p.m. Egypt continues to ratchet up pressure on Hamas and Gaza at the border. The Jordanian Secretary of the Nurses Union, Salman Al-Masa’id, has been arrested and held without charge. Al-Masa'id was part of a Jordanian delegation helping with medical care in Gaza; his "crime" was to remain when the rest of the delegation left earlier this week.

12:30 p.m. An extraordinary development over Israel's "permission" for the Palestinian Authority to bring $43 million into Gaza to pay its employees so they will not show up for their jobs, thus hindering Hamas. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has hailed Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as "courageous" for allowing the movement of money.

Remember that $43 million is only part of $60 million the PA wished to transfer, that the PA is supposedly the Palestinian faction being backed by Israel and the US to take over in Gaza, and that Israel has made no move to support the PA's announcement of $600 million in reconstruction aid for Gaza. Despite this, Olmert faced opposition from both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who argued the money would find its way to Hamas.

11:20 a.m. A prosecutor's office in Ankara has launched an investigation as to whether Israel's invasion of Gaza involves "genocide, torture and crimes against humanity". The enquiry was started after a complaint by an Islamic human rights group naming Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

9 a.m. Diplomatic Development to Watch. A day after a Hamas delegation left Egypt without agreement on proposals for an Israel-Gaza settlement, the chief Israeli negotiator, Amos Gilad, is in Cairo.

7:45 a.m. Two rockets launched from Gaza have hit southern Israel.

7:40 a.m. Irony of the Day. The Israeli blockade of Gaza, supposedly to stem violent attacks, has halted a United Nations programme promoting non-violence amongst Gazan youth. The programme cannot get the paper it needs for leaflets.

UN official John Ging said, "I'm being obstructed in printing out the human rights curriculum that we're all so proud of having developed here and that is more important now than ever before to get on with the teaching of the responsibilities that go with human rights and to focus on making sure that these kids grow up with the right values."

7:30 a.m. A poll of almost 1200 Palestinians increased a sharp rise in support for Hamas and a decline in support for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza conflict. We've posted a summary in a separate entry.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Israel has released 10 activists and journalists who were aboard a Lebanese ship intercepted yesterday as it tried to deliver aid to Gaza. The whereabouts of others amongst the 18 on the ship is still unknown. An Al Jazeera journalist says, "[The Israelis] blinded our eyes, bounded our hands, kept us in uncomfortable conditions for one hour ... they also told us not to communicate with each other in Arabic."

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (4 February)

Latest Post: The Failed Olmert Offer of an Israel-Palestine Settlement
Latest-Post: Israel-Gaza: How to Cover a Mass Killing with "Balance"

9:25 p.m. Stating the Obvious. "The Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas said on Wednesday it doubted Egypt could complete a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestinian groups in Gaza on Thursday."

Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk set out the official line that "clarifications" were needed on the extent to which Israel would open border crossings, but to state the obvious, there was no way a proposal could be put while Fatah and Hamas are still vying with each other for the diplomatic upper hand.

8 p.m. Red Alert of the Day. Isaac Ben Israel, a Member of the Knesset, has declared that Israel has a year in which to attack Iran before Tehran has a nuclear bomb: Ben Israel, a former general and senior defence official, said, "Last resort means when you reach the stage when everything else failed. When is this? Maybe a year, give or take."

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial candidate Benjamin Netanyahu told a conference that Iran poses "the gravest challenge Israel has faced since the War of Independence in 1948. We will work on all levels to neutralise this danger."

Evening Update (7:45 p.m. GMT; 9:45 p.m. Israel/Palestine): The Israeli military have accepted responsibility for the deaths of four girls from tank fire in Gaza.


So why have the Israeli Defense Forces admitted this incident when they have denied numerous others involving civilian deaths? Could the reason be that the girls were the three daughters and niece of a Gazan doctor, who appeared live on Israeli television when he received news of the killings?

Still, there are limits to responsibility, even the case is in the Israeli public spotlight. The IDF have claimed there were militants firing from the upper story of the house, which they did not know belonged to the doctor.

1 p.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has claimed Hamas took hundreds of food parcels and thousands of blankets that the UN planned to distribute to 500 families. The Hamas Welfare Minister has denied the accusation.

12:45 p.m. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, addressing the European Parliament, has said, "Israeli leaders should be held accountable for their violations of international and humanitarian law." He claims 90,000 Gazans lost their homes in the recent Israeli invasion.

Abbas, seeking to regain leadership of the Palestinian movement, set out his "red line" for talks with Israel: "It is no longer acceptable to negotiate on the principle on ending the occupation. Negotiations must end the occupation of all the land occupied in 1967."

12:30 p.m. The Palestinian Authority, trying to regain a foothold in Gaza, has announced a $600 million reconstruction programme. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad announced that most of the money from donors, though no details were given on whether these were foreign governments, the United Nations, or non-governmental organisations.

Fayyad also did not say how the aid would get to Gaza, given Israel's restriction on any transfer of cash by the Palestinian Authority to the area. While Hamas has paid its employees in dollars, the Palestinian Authority has had to delay payments to its employees for two weeks.

8:40 a.m. Today's Mahmoud Abbas Walkabout. The Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas meets the President of the European Parliament, Hans Gert Pottering, and addresses the parliament on Wednesday.

Abbas met French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on Tuesday. Kouchner made a call for Gaza's crossing to be reopened, but the real significance was the reference to "a major issue" of Palestinian reconciliation.

Abbas and his spokesmen are now putting out the line that they will not only work with Hamas in a unity movement but that such a movement must include Hamas. However, Abbas is adding a not-too veiled condition: "a national unity government that considers itself bound by international legality and previous agreements", i.e. recognition of Israel and previous arrangements on borders and Israeli settlements.


Morning update (8:15 a.m. GMT; 3:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine): We've posted two significant stories as separate entries: one on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's offer of a broad settlement last autumn to the Palestinian Authority and one digging out the significance of a lengthy article by The New York Times on a mass killing in El Atatra by Israeli forces during the recent Gaza war.

Meanwhile, in a continuing side-story, Cyprus has given the United Nations a report on the cargo of a container ship suspected of carrying arms from Iran to Gaza. Israel and the US are hoping that this will finally tie Tehran to military support of Hamas; previous efforts in recent weeks have failed to provide the necessary evidence.