Obama vs. The Military: The Battle for Afghanistan Continues

The Pentagon continues to put pressure on President Obama to approve in full its request for additional troops in Afghanistan. The Department of Defense told media on Friday that the US was still on track for the build-up of five brigades, including three in the next few weeks, by summer.

Privately, however, Pentagon officials and the military are making their concerns known:

We need to get troops to Afghanistan soon because the spring fighting season begins in April. But there has been concern that a large initial deployment could force [the military's] hand in Iraq.

That is an interesting statement because it indicates the military has created a problem for itself: it is hard both to justify the rapid build-up in Afghanistan and opposition to the President's timetable for a drawdown of US forces in Iraq.

Expect Obama to play on that --- indeed, it is likely that he already has done so. But also expect the military to be even more vocal in public about its worries if the President doesn't give them part of their plan soon.

Twitter and the Obama Foreign Policy of Engagement: Style or Substance?

We had a bit of fun with the State Department's Twitterers in the dying days of the Bush Administration, so it's only fair to give credit and indeed to highlight what could be an effective use of social media and, far from incidentally, a signal to the changed US approach under Barack Obama.

DipNote has posted the following for readers' response:

On February 4, 2009, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns met with P-5+1 counterparts to discuss the approach that the international community will take toward Iran. When asked about Iran, Secretary Clinton said, “Iran has an opportunity to step up and become a productive member of the international community. As President Obama said, we are reaching out a hand, but the fist has to unclench.”

How ought the international community engage national regimes to transform from pariahs to partners?

Not sure the labelling of Iran as "pariah" assists the discussions with Tehran but it's encouraging to see the possibility of a dialogue with an audience concerned about the course of US foreign policy and the US-Iranian relationship.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (6 February)

Latest Post: Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections
Latest Post: Obama and Blair - The Symbolism of Loyalty
Latest Post: US Economy Saved - Dunking Dick Cheney
Latest Post: Red Alert - Fox "News" Launches Comrade Update

Current Obamameter Reading: Murky

9:25 p.m. We'll need time to decode Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's speech at Munich today but, on first reading, it appears to be the line of "we will talk to the US if it unclenches its fist". Calling on Washington to change its tactics "to a chess game from a boxing match", Larijani invoked the history of US challenges to Iran, including Washington's support of Iraq in the 1980s during Baghdad's war with Tehran, but said a new relationship was possible if the US "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies". In a world where Israel was allowed to have more than 200 nuclear weapons, "the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue is by no means legal”.

Simple translation? Iran talks formally but only if the US not only refrains from preconditions but eases existing economic restrictions.

9:20 p.m. You have to admire Poland, either for being completely out of it or having no shame in sucking up to Washington or both. Apparently missing the news that the Obama Administration is walking away from missile defence, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk "will definitely tell Vice President Biden tomorrow in Munich we are ready to participate in this project, a U.S. project".

Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): We've just posted a separate entry "Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections" with Juan Cole's detailed breakdown and incisive consideration of the results.

The Russian Paradox. As Moscow tries to assert political and military influence in Central Asia and on its western borders, attempting to negotiate with the US from a position of strength, it faces financial and economic crisis at home. We'll have an analysis this weekend, but The Daily Telegraph has just posted Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's warning of unrest:

We are falling under the influence of the global crisis – a worsening problem of unemployment and other social issues. At such a time one encounters those who wish to speculate, to use the situation. One cannot allow an already complicated situation to deteriorate.

In the latest diplomatic move, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Munich Security Conference that the Obama Administration offered a "window of opportunity" for positive resolution of the issue of missile defence in Europe.



2:15 p.m. Pakistan authorities claim 52 militants have been killed by army helicopters in fighting south of the Khyber Pass.

1:15 p.m. Today's Russia Reading: Gusting in Your Face. Abhkazia, the region in Georgia which Russia recognised as independent last summer, has announced that it will host a Russian naval base and an airbase. The Abhkaz Deputy Foreign Minister said a 25-year military treaty could be signed.

10:40 a.m. Watching the World Turn. McClatchy News Services has an illuminating article on how Iran is promoting its aims through "soft power" in Latin America, providing millions of dollars in aid to Bolivia.

10:10 a.m. The Guardian of London, amidst the mix of developments on US-Iran relations, offers what I think is sensible advice:

Instead of concentrating narrowly on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, the better way would be to proceed incrementally, by way of small concessions and bargains, recognising that the gulf between the Iranian and American understanding of history is a very wide one. More fundamental progress is unlikely unless there is movement toward a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and an acceptance that the Israeli nuclear monopoly cannot be left out of the equation when urging nuclear restraint on other states. There are no magic wands in the Middle East.

9 a.m. After a bomb killed at least 27 people at a Shi'a mosque in Central Pakistan, hundreds of Shi'a have set fire to a police station.

8 a.m. US-led raid in Zabul province in southern Afghanistan kills 6 people; council member says they are civilians.

Morning Update (6:30 a.m. GMT; 1:30 a.m. Washington): Important clues to President Obama's position in his battle with the US military over strategy in Afghanistan. Speaking to Democratic Congressmen last night, he emphasized the US cannot win the war in Afghanistan by military means alone. The military "needs a clear mission", as there is a danger of "mission creep without clear parameters".

Translation? Obama is not happy with the military's suggestion that the US hand off non-military activities and "nation-building" to European allies and NATO and believes that the proposed buildup of US forces lacks an "exit strategy" with a political as well as military resolution.

You know Kyrgyzstan must be important, even if I still can't pronounce it, because CNN leads with Hillary Clinton's denunciation of the Kyrgyz Government's decision to close the US airbase as "regrettable". Notable, however, that she did not criticise Russia, who helped Kyrgryzstan on its way with promises of financial and economic support.

The Kyrgyz Government is insisting that its decision is final: "The U.S. embassy and the [Kyrgyz] Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base." The Kyrgyz Parliament votes on the decision next week.

A suicide bomber killed himself and wounded seven at a checkpoint on Pakistan's Khyber Pass. Security forces suspect he was trying to get to a bigger bridge, which army engineers are repairing after it was damaged by a bomb earlier this week.

Judge Susan Crawford, overseeing the military commissions process at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, has halted the last ongoing trial. She overruled a judge who ordered the continuation of hearings over a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.

Obama and Blair: The Symbolism of Loyalty

Dr David Dunn, of the University of Birmingham, picks up on a symbolic meeting at the White House and offers the following evaluation for Enduring America.

Much to the chagrin of currently-serving world leaders, President Obama reserved his first meeting with a foreign statesman for....retired British Prime Minister Tony Blair. While Downing Street and the Elysee Palace remain locked in a battle to see which of their men will visit the White House, the honour was bestowed instead on a former leader.



So how should Obama’s move be interpreted, since it certainly would have been no accident? Eighth years ago President Bush first met “his good friend” President Vincent Fox of Mexico and then the Prime Minister of Canada, making a statement about the priority of hemispheric relations. President Chirac was the first European to meet Bush in the White House, a claim he secured by insisting that he was the longest serving major European ally.

For Obama’s decision several factors could be at play.  Blair remains hugely popular and well known in the US, and twelve years ago he was the new, youthful leader that inspired hope on the international stage. Obama may partly be bathing in that association. Keeping Blair on as a Middle East envoy also needs Obama’s endorsement and there is no better way of doing that than an invite to the White House.

The most likely reasons for the invitation, however, are to do with the symbolism of loyalty. Given that Blair was a loyal ally of Bush, Obama is letting it be known that Blair’s loyalty has been transferred to the new American administration. So effectively the meeting represented mutual endorsement.

But Obama is also signalling something else. What America values most is not its relations with this or that state but with allies that are loyal. This is in part a signal to the current British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, in response to the more critical approach adopted by his government towards UK-US relations since 2007. It would also seem to be an endorsement of the Palmerstonian principle, “We have neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies: only permanent interests.”

This is something that Blair also seemed to recognise in his meeting on Thursday, with his statement that “the truest friends are those still around when the going gets tough”.  Perhaps Mr Obama hopes that his European allies are listening.

Red Alert: Fox "News" Launches Comrade Update

Part-madman, part-buffoon, all-shouting Glenn Beck of Fox put out a classic commentary on Wednesday on the Obama "Road to Socialism", the first stop on the highway to "Communism".

Evidence? Health care for children, capping the salaries at $500,000 of executives whose companies have been bailed out by the Federal Government, union card checks.

Apart from the basic fact that Glenn Beck wouldn't know the real meaning of socialism if Karl Marx, Eugene Debs, and the Swedish economy hit him upside the head with a collective 2x4, this is quite good fun: "These people may not be taking us on the same road that Fascist dictators took the rest of the world a long time ago, but they're using the same tactics and the same propaganda. Our very country is at stake."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuwgHNtyD54[/youtube]