Obama on Iran: The Engagement Continues

Related Post: Transcript of President Obama's First Press Conference
Related Post: Obama Press Conference - Thumbs Up for Iran and Russia, Slapdowns for Petraeus and Pakistan

Update: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said he is ready for dialogue if change is "fundamental" and talks are based on mutual respect.

On the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, President Obama's stance on Tehran at his first news conference last night has made headlines.

Obama maintained his long-term position, talk first but be ready to get tough. Significantly, however, he put the emphasis on the dialogue: "In the coming months, we will be looking for openings that can be created where we can start sitting across the table face to face."



The President cautioned, "There's been a lot of mistrust built up over the years, so [the discussions are] not going to happen overnight." And he made the necessary gesture towards US concerns over Iran's nuclear programme and support of "terrorist" groups.

Overall, however, Obama's comments appear to be a clear signal to Iran that he is satisfied with the opening at-distance exchanges. Both former Iranian President Hashem Rafsanjani and key politician Ali Larijani said on Monday that they were cautious but encouraged by the openings offered with speeches like Vice President Joe Biden's on Saturday. Larijani told CNN that this was "an exceptional opportunity" to improve relations.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (6 February)

Latest Post: Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections
Latest Post: Obama and Blair - The Symbolism of Loyalty
Latest Post: US Economy Saved - Dunking Dick Cheney
Latest Post: Red Alert - Fox "News" Launches Comrade Update

Current Obamameter Reading: Murky

9:25 p.m. We'll need time to decode Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's speech at Munich today but, on first reading, it appears to be the line of "we will talk to the US if it unclenches its fist". Calling on Washington to change its tactics "to a chess game from a boxing match", Larijani invoked the history of US challenges to Iran, including Washington's support of Iraq in the 1980s during Baghdad's war with Tehran, but said a new relationship was possible if the US "accepts its mistakes and changes its policies". In a world where Israel was allowed to have more than 200 nuclear weapons, "the dispute over Iran’s nuclear issue is by no means legal”.

Simple translation? Iran talks formally but only if the US not only refrains from preconditions but eases existing economic restrictions.

9:20 p.m. You have to admire Poland, either for being completely out of it or having no shame in sucking up to Washington or both. Apparently missing the news that the Obama Administration is walking away from missile defence, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk "will definitely tell Vice President Biden tomorrow in Munich we are ready to participate in this project, a U.S. project".

Evening Update (8:30 p.m. GMT): We've just posted a separate entry "Decoding the Political Challenges of the Iraqi Elections" with Juan Cole's detailed breakdown and incisive consideration of the results.

The Russian Paradox. As Moscow tries to assert political and military influence in Central Asia and on its western borders, attempting to negotiate with the US from a position of strength, it faces financial and economic crisis at home. We'll have an analysis this weekend, but The Daily Telegraph has just posted Russian President Dmitri Medvedev's warning of unrest:

We are falling under the influence of the global crisis – a worsening problem of unemployment and other social issues. At such a time one encounters those who wish to speculate, to use the situation. One cannot allow an already complicated situation to deteriorate.

In the latest diplomatic move, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the Munich Security Conference that the Obama Administration offered a "window of opportunity" for positive resolution of the issue of missile defence in Europe.



2:15 p.m. Pakistan authorities claim 52 militants have been killed by army helicopters in fighting south of the Khyber Pass.

1:15 p.m. Today's Russia Reading: Gusting in Your Face. Abhkazia, the region in Georgia which Russia recognised as independent last summer, has announced that it will host a Russian naval base and an airbase. The Abhkaz Deputy Foreign Minister said a 25-year military treaty could be signed.

10:40 a.m. Watching the World Turn. McClatchy News Services has an illuminating article on how Iran is promoting its aims through "soft power" in Latin America, providing millions of dollars in aid to Bolivia.

10:10 a.m. The Guardian of London, amidst the mix of developments on US-Iran relations, offers what I think is sensible advice:

Instead of concentrating narrowly on preventing Iranian nuclear weapons, the better way would be to proceed incrementally, by way of small concessions and bargains, recognising that the gulf between the Iranian and American understanding of history is a very wide one. More fundamental progress is unlikely unless there is movement toward a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, and an acceptance that the Israeli nuclear monopoly cannot be left out of the equation when urging nuclear restraint on other states. There are no magic wands in the Middle East.

9 a.m. After a bomb killed at least 27 people at a Shi'a mosque in Central Pakistan, hundreds of Shi'a have set fire to a police station.

8 a.m. US-led raid in Zabul province in southern Afghanistan kills 6 people; council member says they are civilians.

Morning Update (6:30 a.m. GMT; 1:30 a.m. Washington): Important clues to President Obama's position in his battle with the US military over strategy in Afghanistan. Speaking to Democratic Congressmen last night, he emphasized the US cannot win the war in Afghanistan by military means alone. The military "needs a clear mission", as there is a danger of "mission creep without clear parameters".

Translation? Obama is not happy with the military's suggestion that the US hand off non-military activities and "nation-building" to European allies and NATO and believes that the proposed buildup of US forces lacks an "exit strategy" with a political as well as military resolution.

You know Kyrgyzstan must be important, even if I still can't pronounce it, because CNN leads with Hillary Clinton's denunciation of the Kyrgyz Government's decision to close the US airbase as "regrettable". Notable, however, that she did not criticise Russia, who helped Kyrgryzstan on its way with promises of financial and economic support.

The Kyrgyz Government is insisting that its decision is final: "The U.S. embassy and the [Kyrgyz] Foreign Ministry are exchanging opinions on this, but there are no discussions on keeping the base." The Kyrgyz Parliament votes on the decision next week.

A suicide bomber killed himself and wounded seven at a checkpoint on Pakistan's Khyber Pass. Security forces suspect he was trying to get to a bigger bridge, which army engineers are repairing after it was damaged by a bomb earlier this week.

Judge Susan Crawford, overseeing the military commissions process at the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, has halted the last ongoing trial. She overruled a judge who ordered the continuation of hearings over a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.

The Latest on (Possible) US-Iran Secret Talks

A blog at The Los Angeles Times updates on the possibility of American and Iranian officials meeting this weekend at the Munich Security Conference.

The Times seems to have gotten the story muddled, if not wrong, however. Its spin is that "Iranians have been falling all over themselves to predict there won’t be any thaw in the diplomatic ice", yet if you read the entry carefully, the evidence is that Tehran may be manoeuvring cautiously for quiet, little-noticed discussions.



Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, one of the key Tehran politicans to watch when it comes to foreign affairs, will be at the Conference. Publicly he is setting out a guarded, wait-and-see line:

Mr. Obama in one of his speeches talked of following a new way regarding the Islamic world, but in some media, some sentences are attributed to him which are not promising, such as talking of big carrots and big stick. This sort of talk is beneath the dignity of the Iranian nation.

Larijani added that, for talks to proceed, there needed to be a step by Washington such as the unfreezing of Iranian assets or the release of Iranians detained in Iraq since 2005. The US would also have to avoid the precondition of a temporary suspension of Iran’s production of nuclear fuel.

OK, so Larijani is setting out red lines before any formal talks begin. But, and this is the key, he is not ruling out off-the-record contacts which could raise the issues of economic sanctions, detentions, and co-operation in areas such as Afghanistan. The Times has the significant line even as it ignores the significance:

[Larijani] told reporters today there was “no plan” to talk with American counterparts, but he didn’t rule out the possibility of informal contacts.

Juan Cole offers an excellent overview of the dynamics within the US Administration and of the reasons why Iran might welcome informal discussions.

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (2 February)

Latest Post: Obama vs. the Generals on Iraq
Latest Post: No More War on Terror
Latest Post: Obama Outsourcing Torture?

Current Obamameter Reading: Cloudy with Signs of Thunder

7:45 p.m. "The Cable" reports that US intelligence analysts from the office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Intelligence Council will hold a closed/Top Secret/Codeword briefing on Iran for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday afternoon.

5:20 p.m. Complications and possibly worse from Sunday's provincial elections in Iraq. Tribal leaders in Anbar Province, upset at the apparent dominance of the Sunni religious Iraqi Islamic Party, have claimed widespread fraud and threatened violence if the results are upheld. The head of the Anbar Tribes List warned:

We will set the streets of Ramadi ablaze if the Islamic Party is declared the winners of the election. We will make Anbar a grave for the Islamic Party and its agents. We will start a tribal war against them and those who cooperate with them.

The turnout in parts of Anbar was as low as 25 percent.

5:15 p.m. More trouble in Somalia, only days after the election of a new President. Reports of 16 to 39 dead after a roadside bomb targeting African Union peacekeepers exploded, and the soldiers opened fire in response.



2:45 p.m. One to Watch This Afternoon. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will brief President Obama on Monday afternoon about the plans to send up to 25,000 US troops to Afghanistan. Almost 4000 have been deployed already, 17,000 are in three brigades to be sent soon, and 5000 are support forces.

2:30 p.m. Following our weekend exclusive secret US-Iran talks, there is a further revelation today. Senior Obama Administration officials have told The Wall Street Journal that California Congressman Howard Berman planned to meet Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani in Bahrain in December. At the last minute, however, Larijani withdrew.

The meeting was brokered by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, which had organised the Manama Dialogue on regional security in Bahrain.

11:40 a.m. Today's Country on Notice for Bad Behaviour: Turkey. We're not the only ones to notice Turkey's shifting foreign policy and the aftermath of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's criticism of Israel at the Davos Economic Forum. The Washington Post features an editorial by Soner Cagaptay which shakes a big finger at the naughtiness in Ankara:

The erosion of Turkey's liberalism under the AKP [Justice and Development Party] is alienating Turkey from the West. If Turkish foreign policy is based on solidarity with Islamist regimes or causes, Ankara cannot hope to be considered a serious NATO ally. Likewise, if the AKP discriminates against women, forgoes normal relations with Israel, curbs media freedoms or loses interest in joining Europe, it will hardly endear itself to the United States. And if Erdogan's AKP keeps serving a menu of illiberalism at home and religion in foreign policy, Turkey will no longer be special -- and that would be unfortunate.

It is purely coincidence that Cagaptay is a senior fellow at the stridently pro-Israeli Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

10:10 a.m. Juan Cole offers an overview of early returns from the Iraqi provincial elections. His interesting evaluation is that parties supporting a strong central government (such as Da'wa and some Sunni parties) have done better than those (Kurdish parties and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) favouring more power for provincial governments.

9:45 a.m. A senior United Nations official has been kidnapped in southwest Pakistan. He is John Solecki, an American who is head of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) office in Quetta.

9:40 a.m. A Taliban suicide bomber has killed 21 people in an attack on a police training centre in Uruzgan province in Afghanistan.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 4 a.m. Washington): The signs of thunder comes in the revelation, first set out by The Los Angeles Times on Saturday and analysed by Canuckistan in Enduring America today, of a complexity in President Obama's rollback of Dubya-era orders permitting unlimited detention and torture.

White House staffers are telling the media that "rendition", the practice in which detainees are transferred by the US to other countries who may or may not carry out the torture that Obama has banned, will continue. The leaks appear to be an assurance to the military and the CIA that they can continue to pick up enemy suspects and not worry about legal issues, provided they get the bad guys into the hands of foreign allies.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (1 February)

Latest Post: "Israel Needs to Invade the Hague"

10:55 p.m. A total of six Israeli airstrikes, one on a Hamas police headquarters and five on tunnels, now reported.

9:30 p.m. Reuters now reports three Israeli airstrikes, one in central Gaza and two on tunnels near Rafah.

9:04 p.m. Israeli aircraft have attacked a target, reported a Hamas security headquarters, in the central Gaza strip. No casualties reported. Witnesses say the area was evacuated after Israeli forces telephoned warnings.

8:55 p.m. Reuters has further detail and analysis of the visit of a Hamas delegation, including political director Khaled Meshaal, to Iran (see 5 p.m.). CNN is reporting the praise of Meshaal for Tehran's support.

7:42 p.m. Tomorrow's discussions in Cairo, with Egypt moving between Hamas and Palestinian Authority/Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, could be interesting but far from productive. Hamas is talking up the idea of a 12-month cease-fire proposal to be presented to Tel Aviv; indeed, a spokesman for Gaza prime Minister Ismail Haniya has indicated that the plan has already been submitted to Israel for its response: events are "moving in a positive direction".

Hamas' initiative can be read not only as a manoeuvre with the Israelis but also an attempt to assert leadership of the Palestinian movement. That is why Abbas, rather than emphasise the cease-fire proposal, responded today with an attack on Hamas. Talks were impossible with them, he said, because they had rejected the Palestinian Liberation Organization: "They... have taken risks with the blood of Palestinians, with their fate, and dreams and aspirations for an independent Palestinian
state."



7:40 p.m. GMT: A series of mortars --- 10 according to the BBC --- have landed in southern Israel, along with the rockets we reported earlier today.

7:30 p.m. GMT: Some more details on the Iran front, this time with attention to the evolving Turkish-Iranian relationship. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani called Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and thanked him on behalf of Iran’s people and Parliament. The former Speaker of the Parliament Gulan Ali Haddad Adil also thanked Erdogan in the Parliament and ended his speech with “long live Erdogan” in Turkish.

Ayatollah Nasir Mekarim Sirazi stated that PM Erdogan prevented a new war and contributed to the peace process: “If the ones who are responsible from Nobel Prize have fairness and courage, they will give it to Erdogan.” He added that Erdogan’s stance gave power and morale to the Palestinian resistance. (entry by Ali Yenidunya)

5 p.m. GMT: This will put the cat amongst the pigeons, both in diplomacy and in public reactions. Hamas political director Khaled Meshaal has met Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini in Tehran, giving a detailed account of "victory" over Israel in the Gaza conflict. Meshaal saw Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad later in the day.

2:20 p.m. GMT: We've covered the Israeli battle with Turkey, or at least Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for the dominant position on the Israel-Palestine issue.

The contest continues today, with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni pushing Ankara to take a tough stance on both Hamas and Iran: "Despite the street demonstrations, despite the difficult images from Gaza ... Hamas is everyone's problem. And most countries in the region, in the Middle East, have understood this more than the Turks." Other countries should "understand that Iran is everyone's problem".

1:05 p.m. GMT: Al Arabiya reports, from Palestinian sources, that Hamas will agree to a one-year cease-fire on Monday, when a delegation visits Cairo. According to the sources, "Palestinian Authority forces [would} manage the crossing,...the Hamas Government would be able to send inspectors there and the two sides would cooperate and coordinate their activities".

The opening of the crossings would not be linked to the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held in Gaza since 2006, although his case would be mentioned in the announcement.

10:40 a.m. GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has vowed a "disproportionate response" after four rockets were fired into southern Israel this morning.

10 a.m. GMT: Peter Beaumont in The Observer:

Gaza's 1.5 million people are facing a food crisis as a result of the destruction of great areas of farmland during the Israeli invasion.

According to the World Food Programme, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation and Palestinian officials, between 35% and 60% of the agriculture industry has been wrecked by the three-week Israeli attack, which followed two years of economic siege.

8 a.m. GMT: Three Qassam rockets have landed in the western Negev in Israel this morning.

Morning Update (7:25 a.m. GMT; 9:25 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The tour of US envoy George Mitchell continues, relatively quietly. He was in Jordan on Saturday and arrived in Saudi Arabia late last night, where he met Foreign Prince Saud al-Faisal and will speak with King Abdullah.Yesterday Abdullah called for Palestinian unity, “The competition between them is a big mistake. It will do them more harm than that done by Zionism. I appeal to them again to stand united in order to strengthen their cause."

No significant signs so far of what Mitchell will take back to Washington, although it is clear that Washington needs --- both for the Israel-Palestine process and for wider regional issues --- to establish a secure footing with the Saudis.

Papers in the Arab world are buzzing with the story, after Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad's meetings with US delegations this week, that Damascus wants "better ties" with Washington.