Iran: A Point of No Return?

We will be working throughout the day to analyse yesterday's events, asking, "What does it all mean?" Initially, I had hoped to have the piece on-line this morning but the politics as well as the emotion and images of confrontation are so significant --- beyond any occurrence since the marches of 15 June but even more important, because Sunday showed a regime in retreat --- that I think it requires more than the five-minute, five-point assessment we put out late last night.

For now, I'll note the assessment of Massoumeh Torfeh, just shown by the BBC, that Iran "has reached a point of no return. Ayatollah Khamenei could have changed this with one little speech [Friday Prayers on 19 June], but that time has passed."

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Of course, that does not mean that the Government will give up the attempt to restore "normality". Normal in the sense that Iran's National Security Council has just announced eight people died in the protests (it was very late on Sunday before the Government's outlets would even confess to four deaths).
Normal in the sense that Iran's state media has gone farther to acknowledge the killing of 15 - but then given the proper framing for this: 10 were members of "anti-revolutionary terrorist" groups (I presume this includes the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi), and five were security personnel killed by those terrorists.

Normal in the sense that detentions have occurred overnight. Hossein Mousavi Tabrizi, the head of Assembly of the Teachers and Researchers of Qom, has reportedly been arrested with other clerics; Ebrahim Yazdi, the head of the Freedom Movement of Iran who was detained soon after the Presidential election but released after a few days, has again been taken by Iranian authorities.

How "normal"? Well, even in the short-term, the confirmation of that may depend not on the regime, but on those opposing it. Mehdi Karroubi last night indicated that there is no longer any return to a pre-June 2009 legitimacy for this Government and possibly this regime, as he effectively said that Iran's leaders were now worse than the Shah. There are reports this morning that many Iranians have decided not to go to work --- the hint here is that a general strike may be coming --- although it is far from clear that this is an expression of support for the Green movement as much as a desire to stay home until trouble passes.

So today we not only analyse. We wait and watch.