Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?

It is striking that, after six weeks in the high-profile US media of scepticism and even hostility towards the Iranian opposition, there appears to be another honeymoon of American sentiment for the Green Wave(s). While the protests of 13 Aban (4 November) were largely put aside by the US press, the smaller demonstrations of 16 Azar have been embraced as the valiant defiance of Government oppression.

The Christian Science Monitor saw the resurrection of "the country's Green Movement , [which] has found new ways of organizing and keeping its message alive", and Los Angeles Times published a lengthy editorial, "Help Iran's Student Protestors":

The students, for their part, seem to be girding for a long fight, and the West should follow their lead. Western governments should offer the reform movement moral support, as President Obama did in his Nobel Peace Prize speech, promising to be a voice for the aspirations of reformers such as the "hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran." But the West also must be careful not to undermine the reformists with too close an embrace. This is a national movement, and the Iranians who are questioning the legitimacy of their own government are diligent students of their revolutionary forefathers.

The Latest from Iran (11 December): Ripples and then Ruptures?

Meanwhile, CNN has converted a general statement from Assistant Secretary of State John Limbert, ""We believe as we have always believed that the Iranian people deserve decent treatment from their government," into a portrayal of Washington's renewed backing of the opposition with the headline, "Official: U.S. Will Not Ignore Iran Protests".

President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech offered a high-profile stage for a display of Washington's sentiments. Masoud at The Newest Deal came away with hope:

One of the two times Obama explicitly singled out Iran was on the nuclear issue, if only to stress the importance of countries to not only follow international law – in this instance, the Non-Proliferation Treaty – but to also ensure that such international agreements are followed and respected by all nations. Obama continued:

"The same principle applies to those who violate international laws by brutalizing their own people. When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo, repression in Burma -- there must be consequences. Yes, there will be engagement; yes, there will be diplomacy -- but there must be consequences when those things fail. And the closer we stand together, the less likely we will be faced with the choice between armed intervention and complicity in oppression."

What is interesting to note is that while Obama did not mention Iran in his litany of countries that “brutalize their own people,” he used the word "engagement" in his very next sentence. The term “engagement,” of course, has been used almost exclusively vis-à-vis Iranian diplomacy during the first eleven months of the Obama administration. It appears that this was subtle (if not coy) way of putting the Iranian regime on notice.

On closer examination, however, it appears that the Obama Administration is still driven by a nuclear-first attitude on Iran. The substantial statements on Thursday and today have all been about sanctions on Tehran: US, British, and French ambassadors at the United Nations warned of Iran's violations of arms embargoes. The French ambassador asserted:

If Iran continues to do everything it can to violate five Security Council resolutions, if it continues to refuse the slightest confidence measures, to refuse dialogue, transparency after the major revelations that have just been made, we must draw all of the necessary conclusions and that means we must move on to a new resolution involving sanctions.

US Ambassador Susan Rice echoed, "Should Iran continue to fail to meet its obligations, the international community will have to consider further actions," and this morning Secretary of Defense Robert Gates piled on the rhetorical pressure, "I think you're going to see some significant additional sanctions imposed by the international community, assuming that the Iranians don't change course and agree to do the things they signed up to do at the beginning of October."

So, however warm the renewed affection for the Iranian opposition, it stills appears that "plucky student protestors" translates into no more than pawns in the Obama Administration's nuclear chess match with Tehran.

Today on EA

Iran: It's the day before the important protests of 16 Azar. In addition to our LiveBlog, we have Enduring America's analysis of the significance of the demonstrations and an opinion from Iran News Now, "Why the Green Movement Will Prevail". The routes and information for 16 Azar are posted, and we've got tonight's rooftop "Allahu Akhbar" chants.

The notable political developments today are statements from former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- thanks to an EA reader, we have an English summary --- and from Mir Hossein Mousavi for 16 Azar, which we have posted in an abridged translation.

And don't forget that our 1st Enduring America Photo Caption Contest, featuring a Mr M. Ahmadinejad, is still open.

Afghanistan/Pakistan: It's super-spin day for the Obama Administration, as it sells the President's escalation plan on Sunday talk shows. (There's also puffery in the "inside reports" in The New York Times and The Washington Post on how Obama reached his decision.)

We've got transcripts, with snap analysis, of the interviews of Secretary of State Clinton and Secretary of Defense Gates on ABC News and on NBC News. Meanwhile, here's the top-quality, hard-hitting questioning you can expect from CNN's John King: "We'll use the Magic Wall for help during our interview w/ National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones." (He has even put up a picture of the magical Magic Wall.)

Middle East Inside Line: We have the latest on possible Israel-Syria peace talks, with Turkey as a mediator, and the response of Israeli settlers to their government's 10-freeze on construction in the West Bank.

The Switzerland Minaret Ban: Continuing our coverage of the incident, we note the intervention of the Iranian Foreign Minister.

Sunday Funnies: To lighten the mood, we have the latest in our series "Why We Know Barack Obama is a Muslim".

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation

2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.