Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context

EA correspondent Mr Smith explores the meaning behind yesterday's protests, and looks ahead to the next wave of demonstrations:

In Iran's never ending calendar of public events and commemorations, 16 Azar, or National Student's Day, could hardly have passed without a serious confrontation erupting between the Ahmadinejad regime and the student population of Iran. Protests against Ahmadinejad on 7 December preceded by almost three years the electoral drama of June. In 2006, the president made an ill-fated trip to the Polytechnic, only to be shouted down by students chanting one of the symbolic slogans of today - Marg bar Diktator, or "Death to the Dictator".

The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

The students were therefore motivated and cohesive in their turn-out yesterday. Brazenly defying the heightened security atmosphere, which led to yet another round of arrests amongst activists in the past few weeks and the presence of heavy-handed security forces over all central Tehran yesterday, tens of thousands of students took control of prestigious campuses such as the Polytechnic, University of Tehran, Sharif and Ahmadinejad's own alma mater, Science and Technology University. Indeed, their presence was so overwhelming that the security forces tactfully remained on the sidelines, conducting arrests just outside university perimeters and harrassing ordinary people who attempted to join the protestors within campuses. It was therefore a manifestation of the character and resilience of the opposition, which is now capable of organising spontaneous large scale demonstration through the mobilisation of only part of its forces (students in this case), and does not even consult with the leadership nor require them to be on the streets. In this sense, the potential of the Green wave of today is higher than the gigantic crowds that drove the Shah from power at the end of 1978, which crucially relied upon a highly organised and effectively clerical-secular leadership.

Despite refinements in the repressive tactics of security forces, which have essentially managed to contain killings in streets past June 20 and deployed taser guns rather than live bullets yesterday, the continuation of large-scale protests inevitably will force the top leadership to accept that the legitimacy of its rule now hangs on a threads and dismissing the protesters as dirt, dust or small-fry is simply a blatant lie. This could in turn lead the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei regime to increasing equip itself with the hallmarks of a veritable police state like Baathist Syria and do away with the limited pluralism that has not entirely disappeared after the elections.

Yesterday also witnessed, however, the rise to prominence of more radical elements of the Green wave. Footage and anecdotal evidence of strong sentiment against Ayatollah Khamenei and the principles of the Islamic Republic were circulated widely on the Internet. This is a potentially worrying development for Mousavi and the reformist leadership, which is attempting to ward off accusations that it intends to get rid of the Islamic Republic altogether. The broadcasting of the footage can hence be embarassing for Mousavi and Karroubi and, seperately, reveals the disparate nature of the forces that are grouped, within the country, in what is known as the Green wave. This in turn raises compelling questions for Mousavi and Karroubi. Six months on, their repeated appeals for a negotiated political situation to the crisis, occasionally backed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, have fallen on deaf ears. Their gradualism is producing discontent, and could be the reason for the need to revise strategy by Mousavi and Karroubi.
The horizon, however, does not bode well for the regime. Moharram starts in 10 days time, and Ashoura and Tasua beckon. The two days saw 4 million people in the streets at the end of 1978, undermining the Shah's regime's legitimacy once and for all. This is a historic event the current Tehran leadership won't fondly remember.

Comments

[Barry]

"Moharram starts in 10 days time, and Ashoura and Tasua beckon."

I basically understand what these are (probably as well as any western Non-Shia would) - but I am wondering why these days would be of "dangerous" significance to the Regime. I am thinking that highly religious days such as these (as opposed to "politically" inspired days that the opposition has taken advantage of over the past 6 months eg this past Monday) would be of much lesser concern to the Regime.

Any thoughts please?

Barry

[whereismyvote]

The more significant the political and symbolic presentation of the day in question, the more important it is for the green wave to make a presence and protest on it.
As a government proclaiming itself to be Shia Islam, and its guiding light and its manifestation on earth these two dates (Ashura and Tasua) are highly significant. It is the ability of the greens to stage mass protests on these two days, show their ability to take back Shiaizm and Islam from the government that is significant. It is no other reason. If on this most religious of days, the greens show a 1 million marching army, chanting Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein, then it essentially means that another major pillar of the regime's cultural war has been lost.
We had:
Friday Preys (Taking back of the religious moral superiority of the government)
Qods day (Taking back of the so called support for the oppressed and deposed from the government)
13 Aban (Taking back the foreign policy adventurism and the anti Americanism)
16 Azar (Taking back of the universities)

We shall continue to have every 5 to 6 weeks a major event. If during the Ashura / Tasua events the pattern is broken and protests happen more often than the current pattern, then it is a major victory for the greens. Else even if the next protests are 6 weeks from now, then the trend that we have settled into will continue. Stalemate is a victory for the greens. We have the 22 Bahman thereafter, and the 29 Esfand and off course soon enough the anniversary of the stolen elections again.
In the battle where neither side can claim a major victory, the last side standing is the victor. As the weaker of the two sides, every day that the greens stand and survive, it’s a major victory. As the weak player here (us greens) , I see no other strategy but to continue with our current pattern. Come out once every 6 weeks, stay on the stage, and hope and expect a major screw up from the enemy. For all the talk of the Greens changing their strategy, it is impossibly hard, to first think of what else we could as common people do, and second what other strategy to follow, when we have no media, no internet, no cell phone, no support from any level of government, even no support from the global world out there, or even the USA. Even to be able to have survived this long is a major victory for us, and it would have been unthinkable a year ago. Today we are in the sixth month of this crisis and we are talking of the next move of the greens. I am surprised that Mousavi and Karoubi have not been jailed or assassinated already.

[Barry]

Thank you for that -- good on you!

Barry

[Hamid]

Time is on our side. People's love of freedom will outlast these thugs' love of power.

V

[shangool]

WIMV

"I am surprised that Mousavi and Karoubi have not been jailed or assassinated already."

The regime is not that dumb, that would be pouring gasoline on fire. The regime might do that as a last resort. But then its over. The regime is slowly diggin their own grave.