Iran: A 5-Minute, 5-Point Reaction to The Events of Ashura

This evening an Italian journalist asked me to give him four points for an article considering today's developments in Iran. He was on a tight deadline, so I gave him five points in five minutes:

1) This is a big victory for the opposition --- they rallied in mass and, for the first time, pushed back security forces across Tehran (we are still lacking information on how much of an impact they had in other cities). The scenes of takeover of police stations, raiding of vans, fighting with (and "arresting") Basiji, and control of streets by demonstrators are striking and without precedent in this crisis.

2) And they did it without a major "leader" (Mousavi, Karroubi) coming out --- there is a video of Khatami in crowd but no real reference to him in a leading position --- or with an intervention by Rafsanjani or even a guiding voice from the senior clerics turning against the Government.

Iran: A Point of No Return?
The Latest from Iran (27 December): The Day of Ashura

3) Regime is on back foot --- confused as to whether to try and hit harder and risk mobilising opposition further or to back away. No sign of Supreme Leader or President today.

4) For first time, I can see Government (not just President) falling and Supreme Leader having to compromise to save position.

5) A lot depends on whether opposition can link up their show of defiance to a political agenda in next days/weeks in lead-up to anniversary of 1979 Revolution.