Iran Analysis: The Regime's Sword Wavers

Enduring America, 14 December: "What can the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard do with a Sword which, for all the detentions and all the propaganda, dangles not as a sign of its threat but of (for now) its impotence?"

Even by the standards of this post-election conflict, the last 48 hours have been extraordinary for their rhetoric. At one point, there were no less than five regime officials (head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani, Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, Supreme Leader representative Mojtaba Zolnour, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamedon) throwing around threats of arrests. Yet the opposition was even more spirited and even more high-profile: both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi met the threats with defiance and more than a little humour (both were quite concerned about Yazdi's health, physical and mental), MPs offered public support, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Alireza Beheshti challenged the regime's continuous "lies about imperialism", and Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, held up the Green Movement as the representative of the ideals of Imam Khomeini.

The Latest from Iran (17 December): An Uncertain Regime

And the outcome today, on the eve of the holy month of Moharram? A regime, nervous and possibly a bit frightened, which can neither swing its Sword of Damocles nor keep it steady.



Yesterday afternoon EA correspondent Mr Azadi began putting the pieces together. On Tuesday, Yazdi had put out his scathing ridicule of the "joke" of Karroubi and threatened Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, with arrest if he stepped foot in Iran, Tamedon had talked both of security forces on alert for troublemakers on Friday and of Rafsanjani, and Zolnour apparently said all the opposition leaders should be rounded up. Then yesterday, it emerged that both Larijani and Moslehi were telling important groups of officials and clerics that the evidence was in place to hold trials; the Minister of Intelligence was now spinning a conspiracy tale in which representatives of Hashemi Rafsanjani had planned the post-election conflict in Britain with foreign agents.

The speeches were not necessarily co-ordinated. Indeed, because they probably weren't, they were far short of successful. Larijani's statement, which should have been the most significant given his official position, was a bit lost in crowded airspace, while Moslehi's speech --- at least to my outside eyes --- comes across as extreme. Is the regime really saying that Mehdi Hashemi and Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi (who is in Iran), go on trial as part of the inner circle of the "velvet revolution"?

Instead of cowing the opposition into submission, the volley of regime shots were met by a furious counter-attack. Karroubi was careful, in a well-crafted response, to focus on Yazdi rather than swinging at officials such as Larijani and Moslehi, but Rafsanjani, durig the course of the day, took on not only Yazdi ("Get Help", "Get Cured") but the regime in general. Perhaps the former President was planning, after months of relative silence and uncertain manoeuvres, to surface but it appears that the attacks on him and his family helped make up his mind.

The irony is that, if the regime had kept its mouth shut or at least been more measured in its attacks, it could have left the opposition, rather than itself, in wobbling confusion. The Green movement seemed to be undecided, or even split, over tactics for the first day of Moharram. Should it join the Government-authorised marches, behind the message of "The Ideals of Khomeini are Our Ideals", or should it stand aside and let the regime have the field of demonstrations to itself for the first time in six months?

Supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi put out a letter, with a picture of Mousavi, favouring a public appearance but other activists balked: 1) some feared this would lead to violent clashes; 2) some did not want to associated with any march in honour of Khomeini, even if it had the symbols of resistance of Imam Hossein, whose death is marked by Moharram; 3) some argued that staying away would embarrass the regime when the outcome of a relatively small demonstration showed the lack of support for the Government. This morning, the argument is still unresolved.

Yet this debate in the opposition camp is secondary to the image of the regime's fist-shaking being met by a smack from Karroubi, who had been muted in recent weeks, Rafsanjani, and others. So why did it make such an inept move?

The more I look at events, the more I think that in part the answer is a fear of Rafsanjani. It was notable, for example, that Moslehi's attack did not name any other leader apart from the former President: Mousavi, Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami were all absent from the speech. And it may be equally notable that Tehran Government Tamedon specifically referred to Rafsanjani's 6 December speech in Mashhad as an unacceptable challenge to the regime.

At the time of the speech, we published not only an extract from the speech but an analysis pointing to discussions between senior clerics and Rafsanjani as part of a renewed effort for a "National Unity Plan" or similar political compromise between the regime and the Green opposition. This prospect was challenged by others as an illusory hope but we still maintained this: what mattered was whether the regime thought the initiative was serious, causing it discomfort and prompting a response.

The last 48 hours mark that response: the Government is worried about Rafsanjani, possibly even more than the protests on the streets or the Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami alliance. My hunch --- and it is only a hunch --- is that regime officials think Rafsanjani might have planned a high-profile appearance, if not tomorrow than at some point leading up to or on  the special day of Ashura (27 December), to mark his defiance of the Ahmadinejad Government. For the first time since his Friday Prayer of mid-July, the trumpet (or alarm, in the ears of the regime) would be sounded: Hashemi's Back, Hashemi's Here.

If true, that's a pretty significant development in the ongoing battle. But I think the threats also come from a second fear, and this one may be more important.

The regime is worried about its own supporters. Uncertainty and fright comes from the prospect that the large numbers won't show up tomorrow. The Friday Prayer congregation at Tehran University will be full, but how many will then go on the streets? And, if they are on the streets, how loud will they be for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad rather than Imam Hossein?

For six months, from the day-after-election "they are all dust" victory speech of Ahmadinejad to the 19 June Friday Prayer speech of the Supreme Leader to this Sunday's reprise of Ayatollah Khamenei --- not to mention the actions beyond the speeches from detentions to security presence to the steady propaganda brumbeat --- the regime has relied on attack.

But a swinging sword does not necessarily find its target. And it does not necessarily bring legitimacy (irrespective of the words of Machiavelli). So tomorrow's test is not of how many come for the opposition but, arguably for the first time since 12 June, how many come out for the Supreme Leader, for the President, and for current regime and its actions.

Comments

[Artanian]

I have to disagree with you on your last point. I'm sure the government could make large number of people turn out in support, lets not forget that the basij and their family members do make a large number of supporters and they do ask government workers to turn up as well.

I think their fears is that even tho they most likely will have the much larger protest their supporters still wont make as much noise as the opposition protesters and as a result they wont change the public perception about the weakening government.

[whereismyvote]

The Khomeini issue is the Achilles heel of Mousavi. The government has found the one point on which the will of he people and the will of Mousavi differentiate. Mousavi's love of Khomeini is hoped will blind him into a passionate and irrational behavior here.

Mousavi needs to learn this lesson that we the people are above him, and that our support of him is not unconditional, but rather there so long as he is supporting our goals and aspirations too. Khomeini, his era and his time is long gone. We think he was half wrong and half right, and are not willing to march under his banner. Lets leave him to rest in his half finished mausoleum. We need to deal with today.

I suspect that the confusion will be settled however and that the government rallies will be just that a thin line of government supporters that are bused in and paid to appear. There will be some thin line of hardcore green supporters also behind then and the whole thing will look thin but mixed up. I personally will not participate in any protests during the Moharam, as its not mine to take back. Personally I feel many many Iranian's hate the government and their religious holidays so much that we will not be convinced to march. I will go out next on the 22 of Bahman in force to protest my vote being raped away from me....

[Scott Lucas]

Artanian,

You've put the point excellently. Consider my last point amended.

S.

[ange paris]

Whereismyvote
Where are the waves, that one day , will destroy the bases of this regime ?? few times ago you talked about them , that day after day, thanks to demonstrations, we could destabilize and win , and now you say you wont share the popular gatherings; I will, and yet as they have said I am taghouti !! not for tomorrow's demonstration because I don't want to walk under the banner of this mister but the other ones, waving the green flags and asking for the rights of iranians; this month is an occasion to hassel and harrass them ,if not ,do you think with only 22 bahman they will disappear??

[Somebody]

I tend to agree with ange paris here. Moharram seems like the perfect opportunity to hoist the regime upon its own Islamic petard. You don't have to accept Khomeini's power-hungriness and murderous wiping out of dissent in Iran in order to recognize that the opposition to Yazid is a powerful symbol that fits the opposition to Khamenei like a glove. I think this is why the regime's been trembling this past week. They know that having the symbolism they've been propagating for the past thirty years used against themselves will hurt. A lot.

[ange paris]

My dear fellow WIMV
Come on ! don't give up ! we'll have the monsters !

[ange paris]

I am sure that Moussavi dosen't care of Khomeyni; as has said Sazegara he belongs to the past ! they have asked a permission to demonstrate but they are sure that they won't be allowed , it's a trick, a game; Sazegara has said that the demonstrations of ashura tassua are as a referendum to show how high is the angry and hatred of the people, how much they are against the regime; he has also said that we have different kind of thoughts, it's iranian people who will decide, if they want an islamic republic or only an iranian one; " Iranian People" will decide for the future of the country, don't forget !

[Megan]

WMV, Ange,

Heshmatolah Tabarzadi, who lives in Iran, was a guest speaker on epersian radio political program on December 16. He echoed sentiments similar to those expressed by VMW.

Tabarzadi was alarmed with Mousavi’s illusion of Khomeini and Khomeini era. He said people did not agree with reformist leadership, Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami, on the Khomeini matter and in particular with their stance on torn/burned picture. He, however, was not sure if reformists attempt in sticking with Khomeini was a political ploy or their genuine beliefs. He added if it was their genuine beliefs then reformist leaders would lose people support. He felt people had sacrificed much too much over the past thirty years and would not settle with tweaking the same system so that they could chose between, Khamenei and Khomeini hardcore supporters. Tabarzadi said recent developments stemming from burning Khomeini picture and public declaration by reformists, has made him and other activists worried that democracy in Iran would be in a whole lot of trouble if any member of reformists came to power. He said people have long passed the point reformists seems to be stuck in. He stressed in very clear terms that people were seeking a system of government free from religion, separation of state and religion, and if reformists did not recognize that they would not have majority of people in their camps

Tabarzadi said the Green Democracy Movement has reached a critical point and he would like to see someone who was in-line with people's will came forward and spoke for people and lead the movement. He added, all those inside Iran who could play such a role were either in prison or would be arrested the minute they surfaced. He was hoping that political activists and members of democracy seeking groups outside the country came forward and lead the movement for now and gave a voice to people. He did not offer any name or any party or any political organization.

I frankly do not know if his last suggestion is even practical. I certainly do not know much about political activists outside Iran or if they are known or respected by Iranians living in Iran because at the end of the day people in Iran are the ultimate boss.

Listening to Tabarzadi, I also came away thinking about the lack of preparation and planning by activists groups. In the face of brutality of this regime, one would think the Aces, the key leaders, would have relocated to places outside the country and in position to lead when the time was ripe. I hope I am wrong and there are such leaders outside the country but if I am not I think our culture of coping with adversity (kaj daro mariz) may have gotten the best of us.

epersianradio.com used to keep an archive of political programs. Recently, however, archive is either under construction or out of order because I tried to include a link to Tabarzadi remarks and I could not. I, however, am sure if those who are interested call the radio station and request a copy of Tabarzadi December 16 audio file staff would oblige (I have heard them doing that). The phone number for the epersianradio is on their website.

[Somebody]

I'd be careful about the proclamations of commentators outside of Iran about what the people in Iran want. Personally, I think the best indicator for the mood of the protest movement is in the evolution of the chants we hear in the videos.

In the past week since the Khomeini incident I've seen students in these videos out holding pictures of Khomeini and chanting "oonee ke taghalob kardeh, aksharo pare kardeh"="he who cheated [in the election] is the one who tore the pictures [of Khomeini]". I doubt these students are really followers of all of Khomeini's message, but at the very least they see the political expedient (at the moment) of calling their movement the true torch-bearer of "Imam's" message. In this way, they can fight Khomeiniism on the issues (democracy and human rights) without risking the alienation of others in the movement (or risk justifying further government repression). Given that the students are generally considered to be on the more radical edge of the movement, I can't be convinced that the people are so ready for an all out attack on a figure like Khomeini.

Yes, there is the danger of a split in the movement on this issue but personally I think the danger is in pushing the anti-Khomeini line at the moment and given the propaganda out of IRIB lately, I think this is what the government wants. Anyway, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what Moharram brings.

[ange paris]

I am so sad , AN & Co have reached their aim and split the opposition !
1-they have known that people have hated islamic republic
2-they have known that Moussavi has loved Khomeyni, as has said WIMV (Achill heel)
In Iran we say : "sange bozorg alamate nazadan ast", meaning "if you take a big stone it means you won't beat somebody with" and the outcome of the act is negatif;
The foreign media are right to say iranian opposition is not clear !
I have always said we have to go step by step to reach our target; it's easier to overthrow AN & Co than the complete change of the regime, it will last too long and perhaps we will be obliged to wait for the end of AN 's term of office ( we are lucky because we will be able to demonstrate 3 times , three "22 bahman" !!);
In the other hand, the leaders of opposition have said themselves that "the will" of iranian people has changed compared to the begining of the turmoil, it's not only "where is my vote", but more :
1-separation of religion-state meaning " veleyate faghih"'s abolition
2-justice has to be done to relief iranian people
I think it's not fair to let opposition's leaders down ! and very dangerous to reach our aim.
Our poor Shah was faster than music, in a muslim country he wanted to settle down a western systeme, and it was just impossible ! a "democratic" republic, even if it's "islamic", I don"t understand what's the matter !
Regards