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Entries in Osama bin Laden (1)

Sunday
Dec072008

War on Terror Strategy: Let's Make Stuff Up

In today's Washington Post, Richard Clarke, formerly Counter-terrorism Coordinator under Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush, takes on the War on Terror in a different way: instead of considering the present, he projects the future.

Clarke, who left the Bush Administration in 2002, later said --- in publication and before the 9-11 Commission --- that Bush and advisors paid little attention to the terrorist threat before September 2001 because they were focused on a showdown with Iraq. After 11 September, they got that showdown in part by creating a fantasy alliance between Iraq and Al-Qa'eda.

So it is hyper-ironic that Clarke, to advise the US where to strike next, creates a fantasy alliance between Al-Qa'eda, the Taliban, other Pakistani insurgent groups, and elements of the Pakistani Government:



Perhaps the leaders of al-Qaeda, the Taliban movement that is again on the march in Afghanistan and some Pakistani terrorist groups obsessed with Kashmir [will] also come together...in a safe house owned by a sympathetic retired Pakistani leader of the country's powerful and shadowy military intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI).

Clarke the Clairvoyant then creates a conversation led by Osama bin Laden and joined by Taliban leader Mullah Omar, "Hakimullah Mehsud, a leader of a Pakistani group also known as the Taliban" (which, to say the least, is a bit confusing for the reader), "the red-bearded Sayeed" of the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Al Qa'eda Number Two Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The climax of the discussion?

Bin Laden raises his head, and a wry smile passes briefly over his face. "[Obama's] economy is badly ill. If it gets much worse, he will have to bring all of his troops home. So . . . we may have to increase their pain level. We have done that before."

While I love a good story, I wouldn't have recommended, say, Tom Clancy as a guide for dealing with the Soviets in the Cold War or J.K. Rowling as a blueprint for my children to make it through school. And so Clarke's made-up intelligence of "reports that al-Qaeda has created joint fighting units with the Taliban, which are attacking U.S. bases in Afghanistan from their sanctuary inside Pakistan" --- and the judgement of the editorial staff of The Washington Post --- should be shelved under Fantasy.

Why? Because such imaginary wanderings disregard the complexities of the local and regional situation. One could make the argument that Al Qa'eda --- as strategist, as planner, and even as ideological leader --- is now peripheral. Other groups, drawing their inspiration from conflicts closer to home --- the de facto civil wars in Afghanistan and possibly in Pakistan, the unresolved and still destabilising "grey areas" such as Kashmir --- are waging their battles.

Why? Because Clarke's response to those battles is the snap recommendation that drops a bomb on any consideration of those issues:

We must now eliminate the new terrorist safe haven in Pakistan. But that will require effective action from a weak and riven Pakistani government.

Since unilateral US actions against the "safe haven" are likely to weaken and possibly fragment the "weak and riven" Pakistani government, it's a self-fulfilling fantasy. No one will be safer, but Mr Clarke can return with a sequel to his fantastic tale next year, offering us more "terrorists" in lieu of any thought of how to deal with the causes behind that terrorism.