US Politics & Religion: A Way Forward on and beyond the Islamic Cultural Centre (Ezell)

Darrell Ezell, who recently completed his Ph.D. on US foreign policy and inter-faith dialogue, writes for EA:

Over the summer, protestors listing a series of emotional grievances have attempted to halt the building of Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf’s 13-story complex, The Cordoba House at Park 51, 2 1/2 blocks from the site of the World Trade Center. These grievances include the timing of theCordoba Initiative, coming almost nine years after the attacks of 11 September 2001, the site of the cultural centre, and claims of forced assimilation with Islam and Muslims in Lower Manhattan.

If you are watching this debate from abroad, you may ask: is America really ready to move forward in peacemaking and reconciliation with the religion of Islam? In this case, doing so will require firm public support from Washington and moderate Islamic voices within America.

New York’s Proposed Islamic Cultural Center: Information & Comment (Olbermann)
New York’s Proposed Islamic Cultural Center: The Daily Show’s Investigation

Speaking last Friday at the White House’s annual Iftar dinner to commemorate the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, President Barack Obama cited religious freedom and the need to support moderate conceptions of Islam within America. He affirmed:

As a citizen, and as President, I believe that Muslims have the same right to practice their religion as everyone else in this country. And that includes the right to build a place of worship and a community center on private property in Lower Manhattan, in accordance with local laws and ordinances.  This is America.  And our commitment to religious freedom must be unshakeable.  The principle that people of all faiths are welcome in this country and that they will not be treated differently by their government is essential to who we are.  The writ of the Founders must endure.

Anchoring this argument in the US Establishment Clause in his short address, the President set a new tone in the chaotic debate. The 1st Amendment to the Constitution, crafted by James Madison and Thomas Jefferson, reads, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof….” To prohibit Muslims from gathering within the public sphere or on private property would be akin to setting the nation back a half-century or more to an era marked by Jim Crow and legal segregation.

However, moving in this unjust direction is being lauded by anti-Islamic organisations such as Stop Islamization of America (SIOA) and Pam Geller and Robert Spencer’s Freedom Defense Initiative (FDI).  With emotions boiling over throughout America, a sensible conversation as to why exactly the Cordoba House is pertinent to peacemaking is being shrouded by misinformation and xenophobic rhetoric.

Take, for instance, the recent interview with New York gubernatorial candidate, Carl Paladino, and the director for the Center of Islamic Pluralism, Stephen Schwartz, with MSNBC’s Chris Jansing. Neither Paladino nor Schwartz were able to articulate a logical position for their opposition to Park 51. Schwartz admitted the current furour is insensitive to some Muslims, as well as the victims of 9/11. But what he failed to realise is that reconciliation is --- or should be --- a part of America’s post-9/11 healing-process and that the time is always right to explore it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89sodnhctSk&feature=related[/youtube]

Currently, a xenophobic strand in American society is making headway by capitalising on an opportunity to promote subtle forms of religious and racial difference, scoring political points with some voters before the autumn elections. FDI and SIOA have begun planning  a joint  protest on 11 September outside Park 51.  Headlining the rally will be conservative blogger, Andrew Brietbart,  former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Dutch  parliamentarian Geert Wilders.

With an anti-Islamic movement gaining ground, led by ambivalence,  cheap shots, and even slander of Muslim audiences,  it is vital that Washington steps out front to present continued, firm public support for moderate Islamic organisations in America which are sincere about preventing the spread of radicalism.

Fareed Zakaria writes, “Ever since 9/11, liberals and conservatives have agreed that the lasting solution to the problem of Islamic terror is to prevail in the battle of ideas and to discredit radical Islam, the ideology that motivates young men to kill and be killed. Victory in the war on terror will be won when a moderate, mainstream version of Islam—one that is compatible with modernity—fully triumphs over the world view of Osama bin Laden.”  To assure that this radical Islam is discredited within a context that does not offend the world’s 1.5 billion Muslims, US officials must take seriously inter-religious cooperation and socio-political discourse to engage moderates. Washington should consider the following:

• Establishing a national bi-partisan interfaith commission (comprised of religious and political leadership) to address domestic issues related to religious freedom;


• Allowing this commission to pursue a peacemaking and reconciliation agenda aimed at supporting moderate organizations and voices in America;


• Ensuring that feed-back loops are created to garner community-wide support and trusted relations with moderates; and


• Engaging moderate Muslims from the centre, rather than relying on indirect methods as public diplomacy to reach them.

As Washington considers its next move, its imperative that concerned liberals and progressive conservatives consider the value of applying post-secular approaches to combat both radical Islamic and xenophobic extremism in America. "Post-secular" acknowledges that America has entered an era where widespread religious issues are presenting new challenges to US domestic and foreign relations. The approaches includes interfaith dialogue, sensitivity training, religious-political analysis, and sacred-secular engagement to handle America’s new set of concerns.

The Latest from Iran (18 August): A Letter and A Call for Bombing

2055 GMT: Sports Section. Football star Ali Karimi, who was released by his club Steel Azin this week, apparently for drinking water during training and thus breaking the daylight fast of Ramadan, was in the stadium tonight for Steel Azin's match with Kerman Copper. He was applauded by the crowd.

2035 GMT: Speech Round-Up (Opposition Edition). Rah-e-Sabz has more on Mir Hossein Mousavi's latest statement that 30 years of the Islamic Republic are being challenged to "save the cobwebs of tyrants". And the website summarises Mehdi Karroubi's on-line chat with readers: he will participate in a Qods Day rally in September, for which planning is under way. He said that the current Government is not religious nor a republic, and the Iranian people will have decide about a a religious or secular government in the future.

The Facebook page supporting Mousavi has an English translation of his statement.

NEW Iran Document: Nourizad’s Last Letter to Supreme Leader “The 10 Grievances”
NEW Iran Feature: Sanctions, Iranians, and YouTube’s “Life in a Day” (Esfandiary)
UPDATED Iran Special: Have Fars (& Revolutionary Guard) Faked a Reformist “Confession” on Election?
Iran Video: “His Excellency” Ahmadinejad Interviewed by George Galloway (15 August)
UPDATED Iran Analysis: What Has Green Movement Achieved? (Sahimi)
The Latest from Iran (17 August): The Green Movement, Ahmadinejad, and a “Confession”

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Revolutionary Court has confiscated the house belonging to the parents of student activist Abed Tavanche.

2025 GMT: Speech Round-Up (Khamenei Edition). The Supreme Leader's focus --- despite all the tensions within the Iranian system, including the challenges to the President --- was beyond Tehran today. It was all about the US and Iran's nuclear programme: "What they say, our president and others are saying, that we will negotiate -- yes we will, but not with America because America is not negotiating honestly and like a normal negotiator. Put away the threats and put away the sanctions."

So the line is drawn: unless Washington pulls back both unilateral and United Nations sanctions (or gives private assurances to Tehran that they will be withdrawn if progress is made on an uranium enrichment deal), there will be no post-Ramadan negotiations: "On one hand they threaten us and impose sanctions and show an iron hand, and on the other hand they want us at the negotiating table. We do not consider this as negotiations. Experience has shown that when they cannot answer logic, they bully... we will not budge under pressures and we will respond to these pressures in our own way."

2005 GMT: Controlling the Net. Global Voices Advocacy documents the Iranian regime's crackdown on bloggers and social media.

2000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour, a postgraduate student at Oxford University, has been released from detention after 60 days in solitary confinement.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Almost as soon as his latest letter to the Supreme Leader --- published in EA today --- appeared, journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has been summoned back to Evin Prison.

Nourizad was on temporary leave from his 3 1/2-year sentence for the letters to Ayatollah Khamenei and the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Karami has been released on $50,000 bail.

1805 GMT: Khamenei Speaks. The Supreme Leader is currently setting out Iran's foreign policy in a speech. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic News Agency has summarised his line --- denouncing the "stupidity" of the "military threat" to Iran --- in a meeting earlier today with the heads of Iran's three branches of Government.

More later....

1745 GMT: US-Iran Front. Has the Supreme Leader just thrown cold water on discussions over Tehran's uranium enrichment? This just in from his office's Twitter feed: "Iran's Leader emphasized that negotiation with USA under threat and pressure is not possible. We won't negotiate with anybody in this way."

1735 GMT: Nokia Siemens and Iran. An interesting twist on the claim, highlighted in a lawsuit by detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz (see 0830 GMT), that Nokia Siemens sold and provided to Iran "surveillance technology and equipment for monitoring of wireless networks and the internet".

Fars News claims that the malicious Stuxnet worm has been introduced onto Iranian computer systems via Siemens software.

1715 GMT: Parliament v. President. MP Heshmatollah Fallahatpisheh, a member of the Majlis National Security Commission, has linked the 1953 coup --- whose anniversary is tomorrow --- to today's events. Fallahatpisheh claims Iran's main problem is mismanagement and that the overthrow of the Mossadegh Government almost 60 years ago "shows that the biggest harms were inflicted upon the country when Parliament was weak". The Majlis, he asserted, must be at the head of affairs.

From the reformist side, Nasrullah Torabi has stated, "A sand fog of sedition and flattering prevents the truth from being revealed," and maintained, "Patience and victory are old friends."

But Ahmadinejad's camp has struck back. MP Hamidreza Taraghi of the Motalefeh party has criticised "some conservatives want to pass over the President and many senior officials". And the President's spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr declared, "During the 9th Presidential elections [of 2005], people didn't vote for conservatives, but for Ahmadinejad." (An EA correspondent asks, "But what about the 10th elections of 2009?")

1710 GMT: Women's Rights and the Green Movement. A challenge to leading activist Zahra Rahnavard from a blogger, who claims that Rahnavard has distorted "feminism" by saying that hijab can be imposed by the system like traffic laws, but women should accept it "with love" and not by force.

1705 GMT: Economy Watch. Deutsche Welle follows up the latest news from Iranian media on unemployment by noting that the jobless rate has doubled since President Ahmadinejad took office in 2005.

1635 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Daneshjoo News claims that intelligence officials are behind the transfer of student activist Majid Tavakoli from Evin Prison, where he was seen as the leader of the "riot" of the 17 hunger strikers, to Rajai Shahr Prison.

1620 GMT: Breaking (and Significant?) News. Fars News is reporting that the heads of the three branches of Government --- President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- have met with the Supreme Leader. And it appears that Hashemi Rafsanjani, as head of the Expediency Council, was also there.

No details of the discussion are posted.

1505 GMT: Opposition Remarks. Green Correspondents features comments by Mehdi Karroubi in an on-line conversation with readers, and Kalemeh carries a statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi --- with a clear eye on the furour surrounding Ahmadinejad top aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai --- on Iran and Islam.

1445 GMT: War Chatter. The US talking-shop on a possible Israel attack on Tehran continues, though --- apart from the Bomb Iran editorial in The Washington Times (see 0700 GMT) --- the fever seems to have lessened today.

Gary Sick makes an incisive intervention on the Command Central set up at The Atlantic magazine --- "[This] is so transparently pushing the 'threat' of an Israeli attack in order to get the US to do something utterly foolish, that I have a very hard time even writing about it" --- before handing over to Joshua Pollack's commentary, "Some Straight Talk About Iran".

1300 GMT: Iran's Ramadan Music Ban. For days, we have been following the story that an Islamic prayer called "Rabbana,” sung by musical legend Mohammad Reza Shajarian and traditionally aired on Iranian state television and radio during the holy month, has yet to be broadcast during Ramadan.

This year, another version of the prayer, sung by a different singer, is reportedly being aired, leading to speculation that Shajarian has been "blacked out" because of his post-election criticism of the Government.

Now a twist: an Iranian state television official in charge of religious programming, Parviz Farsijani, said Shajarian's version has not been banned and that it could be aired in the coming days. However, Fars News is devoting its headling story to a lengthy denunciation of Shajarian's views on politics and religion and his association with the "Great Satan".

1255 GMT: Economy Watch. The Iranian Labor News Agency reports that unemployment of workers aged 15 to 29 has reached 26.1%.

1245 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Switzerland has imposed new economic restrictions against Iran.

1225 GMT: Parliament v. President. Key member of Parliament Ali Motahari says that the initiative by some conservative MPs to summon the President to the Majlis, to answer questions on his refusal to implement laws and on other subjects, is proceeding.

At least 1/4 of the Parliament --- 73 members --- have to join the initiative for Ahmadinejad to be compelled to appear.

According to MP Vali Esmaili, a protest letter against Presdiential chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, written by the reformist Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution party and signed by 183 MPs, will be sent to Ahmadinejad's office tomorrow. The letter was written and circulated after a discussion between 20 MPs and the President failed to find a resolution.

1220 GMT: The University Crisis. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, after a meeting with the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has said --- contrary to reports in outlets like Fars News --- the status of Islamic Azad University has not been decided and must be resolved by the Supreme Leader.

Control of the University system, which has 1.2 million students, is between disputed between Rafsanjani, the Parliament, and President Ahmadinejad.

1214 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kayvan Samimi, Abdollah Momeni, and Bahman Ahmadi Amoui --- three of the 17 political prisoners who were on hunger strike --- have been moved out of solitary confinement. Thirteen other detainees (one was recently released) were put back into the ward for political prisoners a few days ago.

1210 GMT: Tough Talk This Week. The head of the operations department of Iran’s armed forces, Ali Shadmani, says Tehran has three contingency plans to confront “any possible aggression”, “undoubtedly” bringing an enemy to its knees: 1) closing the Strait of Hormuz and controlling it; 2) dealing with US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan; 3) "Israel is the U.S.A.'s backyard. Therefore, we will destroy the peace at that backyard."

1205 GMT: Bank Squeeze? Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of what it claims is a crisis in Iran's banking sector.

1155 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the latest session in the trial of journalist Emad Baghi was held yesterday.

0920 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Press TV, from Iranian Students News Agency, reports on an address by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to academics and students at Tehran University on Tuesday: “People, parties and statesmen should be prudent in maintaining unity against foreign meddling and mischief so as to disappoint enemies in fulfilling their vicious objectives....Unity and trust prevents the arrogant powers from taking advantage of their psychological warfare and safeguards the Islamic Republic ensuring the future of the country."

0830 GMT: Lawsuit. Radio Zamaneh has further information on the lawsuit filed in a US federal court by detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi against Nokia Siemens and its subsidiaries for the “sale and provision of surveillance technology and equipment for monitoring of wireless networks and the internet to Iran”.

0730 GMT: "Blogfather" on Trial. The sister of Hossein Derakhshan, journalist and one of the first prominent Iranian bloggers, writes that the third session of his trial was held in late July.

Derakhshan was arrested in November 2008 after he returned to Iran from Canada, where he had been living for eight years.

Some Iranian media have stoked up pressure for a heavy sentence on Derakhshan by claiming he is part of a UK intelligence network. An article in Mashreq, quoted by outlets such as the Revolutionary Guard-linked Javan, claims that the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London trains British diplomats and intelligence operatives, with funding from UK intelligence agencies. The report alleges 13 "escaped" Iranian journalists have applied for scholarships to take courses in the SOAS Centre for Media Studies --- Derakhshan is listed as one of the alumni of the programme.

0715 GMT: Iran MediaWatch. Asia newspaper has been banned and Sepidar and Parastou have lost their licences to publish.

0700 GMT: We begin this morning with two features. We have posted the "sixth and last" letter from Mohammad Nourizad, the journalist and filmmaker detained and now sentenced to 3 1/2 years in prison, to the Supreme Leader. And we have a story by Negar Esfandiary on Iranians, YouTube, and US sanctions.

Meanwhile....

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran

The statement of John Bolton, former Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador to the UN, about the start-up of Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor (see yesterday's updates) may have been wildly inaccurate --- it has nothing to do with any pursuit of a military nuclear programme --- but his call for an Israeli airstrike on Iran by 21 August has had an effect.

This morning, the editors of The Washington Times pronounce, "Bombs Away in Three Days: It's Time to Strike Iran's Nuclear Program", concluding, "The time has come to demonstrate resolve in face of an imminent threat from Iran. The Free World depends on Israeli power."

The Latest from Iran (17 August): The Green Movement, Ahmadinejad, and a "Confession"

2040 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another possible front in the escalating battle between the Majlis and the Government: Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Majlis Energy Commission has said that, after the Government failed to offer a charter for the National Iranian Oil Company, Parliament will vote on its own charter next week.

2030 GMT: The Cleric's Challenge. Green Voice of Freedom summarises the Ramadan speech of Ayatollah Dastgheib: "The Supreme Leader is part of the Constitution, not above it."

1845 GMT: The Battle Within. Two more articles picking up on the growing challenge to President Ahmadinejad: Abbas Djavadi for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Mahan Abedin for Asia Times Online.

1440 GMT: We have posted a separate feature, following up our earlier updates, on what appears to be a Fars News effort (possibly instigated by the Revolutionary Guard) to discredit leading reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, detained in Evin Prison, through a supposed "confession" that Mir Hossein Mousavi lost the 2009 election.

NEW Iran Special: Have Fars (& Revolutionary Guard) Faked a Reformist “Confession” on Election?
NEW Iran Video: “His Excellency” Ahmadinejad Interviewed by George Galloway (15 August)
NEW Iran Analysis: What Has Green Movement Achieved? (Sahimi)
Iran Document: Mohammad Khatami on Religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic (15 August)
Iran’s Battle Within: Ahmadinejad Appeals to Supreme Leader (Rafiee)

1335 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting a group of young reformists, has declared, that the opposition "movement is not limited to one person, medi,a or group". Criticising the deceitful and fraudulent remarks and actions of the government and the repression of the people, he advised his listeners to see beyond partisan lines and always stay loyal to their fundamental beliefs and values.

Karroubi concluded that victory would inevitably be achieved with patience and perseverance.

1105 GMT: Reports indicate that an Iranian F4 fighter jet has crashed in the south of the country near the nuclear power plant being established at Bushehr.

1055 GMT: The University Crisis. Fars News is claiming that Abdollah Jasbi, the head of Islamic Azad University, will soon be stepping down.

If true, the development would be a setback for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is trying to maintain influence over Iran's largest university system, with 1.3 million students, as President Ahmadinejad tries to take control of it.

1020 GMT: The Tajzadeh Election "Confession". An EA source says that the claimed video on Fars News of a detained reformist "confessing", "We lost the elections", is not from Evin Prison and could be in connection to a previous Presidential election. The source also says the audio may have been manipulated, thus the need for subtitles to give the "correct" interpretation.

1005 GMT: Fars News Special "Mostafa Tajzadeh: "We lost the elections". Fars News is pushing a video that it claims is the secretly-filmed confession of senior reformist and former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, speaking to fellow detainees Abdullah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani.

Tajzadeh allegedly says, "I have experience in handling elections, so I know what happened. It is possible than one or two million votes have been displaced,we would have gotten 14-15 million votes. Not 25. We have lost the elections."

We cannot guarantee authenticity of the video. We are carrying out checks and also monitoring any reaction.

0950 GMT: War Chatter. An EA correspondent notes a discussion on Voice of America of the provocative "analysis" by Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic --- which we considered last week on EA --- projecting a likely Israeli airstrike on Iranian facilities.

0940 GMT: How to Handle the US Government and the Stoning Issue. Keyhan responds to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent statement criticising the death sentences of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned for adultery, and three other prisoners:

Hillary Clinton, the wife of former US President Bill Clinton, still has to use her husband's name despite becoming Secretary of State. Taking advantage of the exploitative and perverse principle of freedom of choice which Hillary Clinton speaks about, Bill Clinton betrayed her and had a lengthy illicit relationship with his secretary Monica Lewinski which even in the promiscuous US society became a major scandal. Furthermore, Condoleezza Rice was notorious in the media for being promiscuous in her relationships.

0920 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An EA correspondent reports that the memoirs of former Hashemi Rafsanjani have been withdrawn from bookstands in Iran only a few weeks after they went on sale. (Could that be because of possible comparisons between the Iranian Government of the 1980s and the Iranian Government of today?)

In his introduction, Rafsanjani writes that his "hard-working staff" have copied all his diaries to CD ROM and stored them in a safe location. That's a message for Iran's security forces: if you raid the former President's offices, you won't get the original of his memoirs.

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that the officials of Ward 350 of Evin Prison have cancelled the mosque privileges of prisoners during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

0845 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Advar News reports that three of the 17 political prisoners who have recently ended their hunger strike --- Abdollah Momeni, Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, and Keyvan Samimi --- are still in solitary confinement.

0825 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Following President Ahmadinejad's assurance that cases of death sentences by stoning were "insignificant" (see 0745 GMT), the Iranian Foreign Ministry has told other countries to stay out of the discussion over Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman whose scheduled execution has received international attention: "Independent nations do not allow other countries to interfere in their judicial affairs....Western nations must not pressurise and hype it (the case) up....Judicial cases have precise procedures, especially when it concerns murder."

0745 GMT: We have just posted the video of the interview of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, addressed as "His Excellency", by former British MP and current Press TV host George Galloway. The two men share their agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Palestine/Gaza before Galloway offers this hard-hitting challenge on "internal Iranian questions":

GALLOWAY: I have police protection in London from the Iranian opposition because of my support for your election campaign. (Galloway is referring to an incident this winter when he was heckled at a post-election meeting in the Houses of Parliament.) I mention this so you know where I'm coming from....

The events after the election were a kind of mini-political earthquake, a section of the population rejecting the results and a section of them openly attacking the Islamic system itself. Can I ask you, "What does the Green Movement mean to you?"

AHMADINEJAD: ....There are people in the Islamic Republic of Iran who continue to criticise and attack the President, and they are sure that nobody is going to harass them. They have peace of mind and they are comfortable. We really have free and democratic elections in this country, and people are the main element of elections, and people are also the executors of elections....

The other point is the conspiracy and plans of the United States and its allies. Before the elections, they had announced they would do everything possible to prevent the Government of Ahmadinejad to be re-elected....

At the end of the day, we see 14 million people have not voted for me. So it will be quite natural if you see number of demonstrators reach 14 million, but the number of the protestors was very insignificant. The people of Iran are very much united....

[The President then speaks of the opposition "within the system", describing Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami but not naming them.]

GALLOWAY: Are they still inside the system?

AHMADINEJAD: Almost in the system. Of course, the people don't want them any longer. People have not voted for them. They have been successively defeated [during the Government's] two terms....

The post-election events was on the basis of a project made in the country and it was implemented inside the country among a limited number of people. The Islamic Republic of Iran did not intend to take a harsh attitude toward them....We have managed the situation with minimum cost....

GALLOWAY: Every so often an issue comes along which is seized upon by the enemies of Iran and magnified and it becomes a heavy problem. One such is the punishment scheduled originally against a woman convicted of adultery [Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani], the so-called stoning case.

I see that President Lula from Brazil has asked Iran if he can take this woman into exile there to solve this problem. Can Iran agree to this?

AHMADINEJAD: The number of such people [sentenced to death by stoning] is very, very insignficant. I talked to a judge at the end of the day, and judges are independent. But I talked to the head of the judiciary and the judiciary does not also agree with such a thing....I think there is no need to create some trouble for President Lula to take her to Brazil. We are keen to export our technology to Brazil....I think the problem is so limited.

0655 GMT: We begin this morning with Muhammad Sahimi's analysis, "What Has the Green Movement Achieved?"

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

Majid Pashai, a student activist, has been given a two-year prison sentence.

War Talk

Neither the Green Movement nor political prisoners is getting a look in, however, with most US-based analysts. The Atlantic magazine --- motives to be considered in 25 words or less --- has re-made itself as Command Central for discussion of an Israeli strike on Tehran.

How far can one run with such chatter? Well, former Bush Administration official John Bolton used the news that Russia will supply uranium fuel rods to Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr to claim that Israel has until 21 August to attack Iran's nuclear facilities: "Once the rods are in the reactor an attack on the reactor risks spreading radiation in the air, and perhaps into the water of the Persian Gulf."

Bolton made the claim even though Bushehr has no connnection to uranium enrichment, let alone any Iranian military nuclear programme.

US-Iran: Strikes, Sanctions and Scapegoats (Sick)

Gary Sick, a former official in the Carter and Reagan Administrations and a leading analyst of contemporary US-Iran relations, assesses the current state of play:

For the pundits, there are only two questions about U.S.-Iran relations that are of any importance: (1) Will Israel and/or the United States attack Iran? and (2) will the new sanctions have enough bite to persuade Iran to change its nuclear policy? Despite all the printers ink spilled on these two issues, the answers are an easy no and no.

Neither the United States nor Israel will take the military option off the table, thereby giving the pundits (and the crowd that is dying to repeat Iraq) latitude to keep the distant prospect of military action on the front pages, where it has been for years. As a lede, it sells columns and newspapers, so it will not go away. But as analysis it is either blinded by the momentary hype or else is simple wish fulfillment.

Uber-neocon John Bolton had it right. If any such attack were to occur, it would have been at the end of the Bush administration when there was nothing left to lose. Bolton thought it was so inevitable that he predicted it unequivocally in a Wall Street Journal column in 2008. Dick Cheney apparently agreed, judging from his subsequent statements of regret. So it is fair to say that George W. Bush, after looking the potential consequences, resisted the advice of his neocon advisers, his previously dominant vice president, and the reported direct request from the government of Israel — and rejected a strike. What is the likelihood that Barack Obama, with the same catastrophic scenario before him, will approve? Forget it.

Sanctions do not persuade dictatorial regimes to abandon projects that they think are central to their security and survival or even their self-image. Just look at Saddam Hussein. The international sanctions imposed on Iraq in the 1980s make the current Iran sanctions appear anemic in comparison. Every item that went in and out of Iraq was subject to approval by a UN committee dominated by a vindictive United States. Yet, although Iraq had abandoned its nuclear weapons program years earlier, Saddam could not bring himself to let his own people and his enemies know that. Instead he was prepared to gamble that the United States would not attack him.

One of the reasons for this bad bet was that he and his cronies were doing so well under the sanctions that there was no immediate necessity to come clean. They, after all, controlled the smuggling routes. And their henchmen managed the thriving and enormously lucrative black market. As for concern with their own people, a rotund Tariq Aziz, sitting with a fine Scotch and a Cuban cigar, informed a worried UN representative that it would be good for the Iraqi people to lose some weight. An Iraqi friend of mine told me at the time that the sanctions had made criminals of the entire Iraqi middle class, which had to resort to illegal behavior in order to survive. The biggest – and most successful – of this new criminal class was the privileged group immediately around Saddam Hussein.

Which brings us to Iran. The sanctions are more effective than many anticipated. They have built a web of financial restrictions and limitations around the already weak Iranian economy that is certain to cause significant problems for the leadership. Iran’s critical energy sector is particularly vulnerable. It is in a pincer. Because of cheap energy prices inside the country, artificially propped up by massive subsidies, energy demand is soaring. This siphons off a lot of Iran’s oil production, which would otherwise be sold on the world market for hard currency.

At the same time, because Iran’s oil fields are old and complex, they require modern technology to maintain production. That technology – and the capital investment that can only be provided by the major international oil companies – has been absent for many years. It was driven away partly by the sanctions, ironically assisted by Iran’s own short-sighted negotiating tactics that offered only the most meager profit margins to outside investors. As a result, Iran’s oil production is in decline at the same time that more and more of it is being soaked up by domestic consumption. In a period of relatively low oil prices, this means that Iran’s hard currency earnings are drying up at an alarming rate.

This unenviable economic situation is compounded by what has to be described as perhaps the least competent economic management team of any major country in the world. Ayatollah Khamene`i, the Supreme Leader, seems totally preoccupied with bolstering his own shaky political legitimacy by pandering to the Revolutionary Guards who surround and protect him. The result is corruption on a scale beyond anything the shah’s regime could have imagined.

President Ahmadinejad, also a creature of the Revolutionary Guards, is free to indulge his taste for outlandish and irresponsible rhetoric. His words keep the international and domestic spotlight glued to him; but the effect drives away prospective investors and facilitates the U.S. drive to enlist international support for sanctions against Iran. An American Jewish leader once joked with me that he suspected Ahmadinejad was a Mossad agent: no one, he observed, had been more helpful in promoting donations to Israel and Israeli causes. At the same time, under his leadership Iran has inflation and unemployment that are both in double digits.

But to be fair, Ahmadinejad is the first politician in modern Iranian history willing to address the “third rail” of Iranian politics – the immensely costly subsidies on food and energy. His initial efforts to reduce the amount of subsidized gasoline that Iranians could use met with outbursts of indignation, including torching filling stations. But these rules now seem to be grudgingly accepted and have eased slightly Iran’s energy dilemma. He is now addressing the low tax rates assessed against merchants. This has also resulted in outrage, including closing the bazaars in Iran and other major cities. But his campaign seems to be making progress.

These are needed reforms that would be recommended by any responsible economic overseer, including the International Monetary Fund. Ahmadinejad attempts to balance his daring assaults on the entrenched economic interests by his belligerent rhetoric, always casting himself as the champion of the little guy. In that he resembles his populist predecessors, from Juan Peron to Huey Long to Hugo Chavez. Ahmadinejad takes on America and Israel the way Governor Long took on Standard Oil. But like other populists, Ahmadinejad is the prisoner of his own eccentric view of the world and his loyalty to lieutenants who may or may not be worthy of his faith in them.

The key question about Iran today is not whether it will be attacked or collapse under sanctions. It is whether Iran is capable under its present leadership to take a sober decision about how to deal with the outside world. The Revolutionary Guards have established a dominant position in Iran’s military, its economy, and its politics. Iran increasingly comes to resemble the corporatist states of southern and eastern Europe in the 1920s and ‘30s that we call fascist. Iran is conducting an interior battle with its own demons, from the millenarians on the far right who choose to believe that Khamene`i is the personal representative of God on earth, to the pragmatic conservatives who simply want a more responsible leadership, to the reformists of the Green movement whose objective is to put the “republic” back into the Islamic Republic by giving the people a greater voice.

This is a yeasty and unpredictable mix. No one knows what is going to happen next.

And this is the reality that the Obama administration must deal with. The danger is not that the administration will back the wrong horse in Iran. The real danger is that the Obama administration will be so preoccupied with domestic American politics and its constant demand to look tough when dealing with Iran that it will inadvertently rescue this cruel but hapless regime from its own ineptitude by providing a convenient scapegoat for everything that goes wrong in Iran.