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Entries by Scott Lucas (137)

Tuesday
Aug242010

The Latest from Iran (24 August): Keeping the News Alive

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. A high-level South Korean delegation is in Washington to discuss sanctions against Iran.

2025 GMT: Bad Dog. The Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has banned Iranian media from publishing any advertisements about pets or pet-related products. The order was issued after a fatwa from Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem Shirazi.

NEW Iran: Is President’s Chief of Staff Rahim-Mashai Taking On Foreign Policy?
NEW Iran, Political Prisoners, & New Media: Discovering The Case of Zahra Bahrami
NEW Iran Feature: Why "Normal" is Not Bad (Pedestrian)
Iran Document: Interview with Detained Filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad
Iran Special: Have Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani Kissed and Made Up?
The Latest from Iran (23 August): Political Cease-fire?


2015 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporter Ohne Grenzen has launched a German-language petition for the freeing of human rights activist and journalist Shiva Nazar Ahari, detained since July 2009 and facing a charge of "mohareb" (war against God).

2000 GMT: We've posted an evening feature, mulling over the possibility that the President's office, including controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, is trying to take over Iran's foreign policy.

1630 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Kalemeh has picked up the Sunday statement of Mehdi Karroubi, made as he visited released detainee Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour (see 0715 GMT). Their take-away line is Karroubi's challenge to the regime to release political prisoners for Ramadan.

Saham News has also posted a Karroubi statement on women's rights.

1620 GMT: Truce Over (cont. --- see 0955 GMT)? So much for smooth sailing for the Government after last week's Supreme Leader intervention....

An impeachment bid has been lodged against Minister of Agriculture Sadegh Khalilian for excessive import of agricultural products, incompetence, and disregard for the insurance fund of agricultural crops. About 25 MPs have signed a letter to impeach Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo, on grounds of failure to implement plans and appointment of inexperienced personnel, and MP Mousa al-Reza Servati said some legislators are seeking to impeach Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar.

1420 GMT: Mousavi Watch. In his latest statement, made to children of veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, has declared that "the Green Movement has laid the foundation of achieving national reconciliation": “The continuation of the Green Human Chain that was formed [during the Presidential campaign] from Tajrish Square (in north of Tehran) to Rah-Ahan square (in south of Tehran) is being pursued on the national stage and all of us, despite our polarity of votes, different ideas, cultures and ethnicity, will gradually overcome our stammers and will be able to talk to each other more easily.” He added:
The political organizations that had been separated due to wring policies, are gradually coming closer together, talking to each other and sitting at one table. What that is their point of connection is the effort for achieving freedom, justice and understanding to guard people’s rights. The borders of “insiders” and “outsiders” are gradually fading and instead compromise and dialogue are becoming dominant. Today, more than ever, the blessings of the Green Movement of the people have laid the foundation of national reconciliation, friendship and unity among the various cultures, ethnicities, Shia and Sunni and all the layers [of the society].

Mousavi warned, however, "Some who see their interests in creating division and shattering people’s unity are continuing to spread hatred through fabricating false charges and other extensive measures in the name of fighting soft war'....They want to infect the cyber-space that emerged from the Green Movement with their viruses just as they turned the national media to a divisive and biased media with their meddling, so that our Muslim nation loses its trust in this beautiful window that has been opened."

1400 GMT: Reaching Out to the Opposition? Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau posts a lengthy article, "Hardliners Seek Peace with the Green Movement". I can't quite see how Sahimi's narrative supports that dramatic headline, but this extract is intriguing, especially in light of the Supreme Leader's effort last Wednesday to resolve in-fighting amongst conservatives and the Government:
249 Majles deputies -- almost all of the parliament aside from its Reformist wing -- issued a statement supporting him, and asking for vahdat-e ommat (union of the masses). The most important aspect of the statement was the recognition of the effect of the sanctions and the threat of war. For example, Mohammad Hossein Farhangi, a member of the Majles leadership, said, "Given that the enemies of the people and the nezaam [political system] will do their best to harm them, it is imperative that a united front becomes the top priority of the officials, and those who committed mistakes correct them and come back."

On Saturday, August 21, Reza Akrami, a spokesman for the Society of Combatant Clerics (SCC) of Tehran, the leading right-wing clerical group, said that that the SCC wants mediation between the ruling establishment and the opposition. He said that he had made the same suggestion last year to Majles Speaker Ali Larijani, Mahdavi Kani, and former Majles Speaker Ali Akbar Nategh Nouri, a relatively moderate cleric [presumably during the time when there was talk of a "National Unity Plan" being circulated and even presented to the Supreme Leader], but that they had turned him down. Another leading member of the SCC, Majles deputy Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghaddam, said that the mediation should not be done by the officials, but by those "whose words are influential". The opposition "must become convinced" that the reconciliation gesture is sincere, he said, "otherwise they will not return" to the ruling elite. Jafar Shajooni, a radical SCC member, attacked Akrami for speaking of mediation between the hardliners and the Green leaders. He declared that Akrami does not speak on behalf of the SCC and misunderstands what Khamenei has said.

1200 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Nokia Siemens Edition). The Guardian of London has now noted the lawsuit brought by detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi against Nokia Siemens Networks for selling and providing technology used for surveillance by Iranian authorities.

1115 GMT: Opposition Watch. In her latest statement, Zahra Rahnavard declares, "The people are the ones who have the hand of God behind them", in contrast to a "government that claims to be religious, suppresses millions of people on the streets, tortures and executes the children of the people, and, with a thoughtless bill called the Family Protection Act, launches the destruction of the families in this nation."

0955 GMT: Truce Over? So what is happening less than 48 hours after President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani supposedly reconciled with their joint press conference and declarations of co-operation?

Why, it looks like Alef, the publication close to Ahmad Tavakoli, high-profile conservative MP and cousin of Ali Larijani, claims that the President has a 10-point plan to curb the power of clerics through invocation of the "hidden" 12th Imam.

Power game back on?

0745 GMT: Academic Walkout. Shafaf claims that about 50 professors walked out on a speech by Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, at Sharif University.

0735 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Borzou Daragahi and Ramin Mostaghim write for the Los Angeles Times:
Businesspeople, officials and analysts inside and outside the Islamic Republic describe the sanctions as taking a toll on the economy and ordinary citizens, increasing the cost of everything from the production of medicine to the manufacture of baguettes.

But they also say key businesses and government operations controlled by the Revolutionary Guard have found ways to skirt the sanctions, which ban trade with state-run firms connected to the nuclear program, by enlisting private-sector firms as fronts.

The reporters cite Kamran Vakil, an official at the private-sector Iranian Union of Mineral Products Manufacturers and Exporters, who says the 2,500-member Iran-China Chamber of Commerce and Industries has become more important than Iran's Central Bank. They describe, from "merchants", how the Revolutionary Guard circumvents sanctions, for example, selling old machinery and buying new equipment from Venezuela through Iranian companies.

Daragahi and Mostaghim also describe how some companies are charging others to move funds in and out of Iran.

With prices for both businesses and consumers rising sharply, an elevator manufacturer says, "To break the sanctions through middlemen costs so much. The private sector loses to the military and Revolutionary Guard-affiliated companies. Now the private sector must import items via governmental companies."

0725 GMT: Cartoon of the Day. Nikahang Kowsar portrays the disposal of Presidential aide and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, suspended on Sunday with two judges for their alleged role in the post-election Kahrizak Prison abuses.



0715 GMT: A Sledgehammer for a Hazelnut. Mehdi Karroubi has said that he "never imagined" the political situation in which Iran finds itself.

In a visit to Mohammad Reza Jalaeipour, the student activist recently freed from prison, Karroubi discussed how Iranian authorities had used a sledgehammer to crack a hazelnut, spreading fear among the people.

0655 GMT: We open today with two features. Pedestrian reflects on the tensions between hopes for political change and hopes for a "normal" life for Iranians, while --- with a huge debt of gratitude to EA readers --- we write how new media helped "discover" the case of Iranian-Dutch national Zahra Bahrami, detained since December.

Meanwhile....

Iran MediaWatch

In the continuing tale of how Iranian authorities are trying to shut down news, The Guardian of London follows up yesterday's revelations that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has issued an order to newspapers to avoid all mention and images of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami:
Keeping the society and the public opinion calm is the main responsibility of the media. Security officials have considerations about publishing news, photos and speeches of Mr Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. Therefore, according to Clause 2 of Article 5 of the Press Code, publishing news, photos and reports about the these people are prohibited.

As EA noted, the Ministry has also declared that media should avoid any mention of the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy.

Academic Protest

We opened Monday by noting that students at Zanjan University had protested the dismissal of Professor Yousef Sobouti. An Iranian blog follows up with news and pictures of the "farewell" to the academic, including claims that the students were beaten by security forces.

Tuesday
Aug242010

Pakistan: Floods, Bombings, & A Drone Strike (Cole)

An item that caught our eye this morning: there have been 53 US drone strikes in Pakistan during 2010. That is equal to the total for all of 2009.

Juan Cole rounds up the latest news:

As Pakistan’s army and political elite focused on the catastrophic floods that have put a fifth of the country under water and displaced millions, militants in the mountainous northwest of the country struck on Monday with bombings that killed 32 persons and wounded 42.

Afghanistan Tangled: How Pakistan Used the US & an Arrest to Block Peace Talks with Taliban (Filkins)
Pakistan and the Floods: America’s Broken Response (Mull)


The violence targeted figures involved in mediation between local authorities and the Taliban, and were probably intended by extremists to end such negotiations. In Wana, South Waziristan, a suicide bomber attacked the seminary of Maulana Nur Muhammad, a former member of the Pakistani parliament from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas who ran on the ticket of the Party of the Association of Muslim Clerics (Jami’at Ulama-i Islam (Fazl)). This group is alleged to have helped produce the Taliban back in the 1990s so they are not exactly bleeding heart liberals and it is a little odd that the militants should have killed 22 persons at Nur Muhammad’s seminary. Dawn hints that the clergyman’s opposition to the Uzbek expatriates among the Pakistani Taliban may have led to the Uzbeks targeting him.

Also, as elders of Khurram in FATA met to settle a dispute over who owned a local school, they were blown up by a bomb on a delayed timer, with 7 killed and 6 wounded.

As if to add injury to insult, the United States fired a drone missile at a compound owned by the shadowy Haqqani network in North Waziristan, killing 13 militants and 7 civilians, including women and children.

Given the state of Pakistan, you would think that the US could afford to call a Ramadan ceasefire in its constant bombing of Pakistanis. The deaths of women and children and innocent men in these raids makes for bad feeling toward the US, but especially during the fasting month of Ramadan and in the midst of a major humanitarian crisis? That’s the headline you want, ’7 innocents killed by US drone’? Me, I don’t think that policy is appropriate to the moment.

The Washington Post explores the reasons for which the billions in US aid given since 2001 have not purchased for the US much good will in Pakistan. Washington has avoided iconic projects for fear they would be blown up by militants, and most aid is funneled through branches of the Pakistani government.

Back in Islamabad, President Asaf Ali Zardari said that it would take at least 3 years for Pakistan to recover from the deluge, though he admitted that in some ways the country might never be the same....

Read full article....
Tuesday
Aug242010

Iraq: Requiem for A US Mission (Los Angeles Times)

As the US Government declares today that the official number of American troops in Iraq has fallen below 50,000, the Los Angeles Times offers an evaluation of the seven-year intervention:

Those who have lived through the Iraq war have never been certain whether they were at the beginning, middle or end of hostilities. Preparations for the U.S.-led invasion began well before the March 2003 launch of "shock and awe." American forces toppled Saddam Hussein within weeks, but rather than bringing an end to the combat as expected, the collapse of the regime and subsequent dismantling of the Iraqi army gave rise to an insurgency and brutal sectarian conflict. Now, as the United States formally concludes its combat role on Aug. 31, it is time once again to ask: What was the U.S. mission in Iraq, and what was accomplished?

Iraq Video & Analysis: Odierno Sets Up the Long Haul Non-Withdrawal


Hussein was a ruthless dictator whose henchmen tortured the political opponents they didn't execute. He invaded Iran in 1980 and Kuwait in 1990. He tried to build nuclear weapons, and he used chemical weapons against Iran as well as against his own citizens, killing at least 5,000 Kurds in Halabja alone in March 1988. All told, more than 180,000 Kurdish men, women and children were slaughtered in his Anfal campaign in the north. Meanwhile, the regime drained marshes and starved hundreds of thousands of Shiite Arabs out of the south. These were horrible crimes committed over decades, many of them long before President George W. Bush decided to seek a "regime change." But did they warrant a U.S. invasion?

The Bush administration made the decision to go to war in Iraq in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks that were plotted by Al Qaeda from Afghanistan and carried out by Saudis, not by Iraqis. It offered many reasons for turning its sights on Iraq. First, Bush made the radical case that the attacks in the United States justified preemptive strikes against potential threats to Americans. He said it was necessary to disarm Hussein, who allegedly was hiding a program to develop weapons of mass destruction in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. The administration claimed a connection between Hussein and Al Qaeda and warned that Hussein could provide the terrorists with WMD. Neoconservative ideologues added that removing Hussein would open the way for a democratic government in Iraq and have a ripple effect throughout the Middle East — domino democracy — that would stabilize the region.

Opponents of the war ascribed other motives to Bush: He sought to "finish the job" for his father, who stopped short after driving Hussein out of Kuwait in the Persian Gulf War, or, as many Iraqis believed, he wanted to get his hands on Iraqi oil.

At least 4,415 American troops died in combat, and tens of thousands were wounded. Iraqi casualties have been harder to count. The Iraq Body Count's website puts the civilian death toll between 97,000 and 106,000; hundreds of thousands were wounded, and many others displaced, forced into exile. The Bush administration initially calculated that the war would run $50 billion. Seven years later, the bill is tallied at about $750 billion, and nearly as much likely will be needed to tend to the physically and psychologically wounded service members who have returned. By any measure, the price has been high in blood and treasure, and in the damage to American moral authority.

From the beginning, this page argued against the war, saying the administration had failed to prove that Hussein had WMD or a connection to the 9/11 perpetrators. Then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld famously responded to skeptics by asserting that "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." The administration pointed to suspect aluminum tubes and alleged mobile bio-laboratories, and went to war despite the opposition of most of its allies and without United Nations approval.

After the fall of Hussein, it quickly became clear that the administration had been seeing things it wanted to find rather than finding the truth. There were no WMD; no 9/11 plotters in Iraq. Bush had taken the country to war on false pretenses. The United States was not safer after the war, because there had been no imminent threat before it. Arguably, Americans were more at risk. Al Qaeda exploited Iraqi resentment of U.S. troops, who were viewed as occupiers rather than liberators by much of the Muslim world. Abuses committed by U.S. soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison fanned anger and anti-Americanism. Though Al Qaeda was not a force in Iraq before the war, it was after. And rather than stabilizing the region, the war shook a strategic balance. Hussein's Sunni regime had served as a useful if unsavory counterweight to the Shiite government of Iran.

Read the full editorial....
Tuesday
Aug242010

Iran, Political Prisoners, & New Media: Discovering The Case of Zahra Bahrami

This is a story of an Iranian-Dutch woman who may be facing death in Tehran. It is not a nice story. It is not a story with a happy ending (thank goodness that it has no "ending", given the possibilities, so far).

But at least it is now a public story.

Last year Zahra Bahrami travelled from the Netherlands to visit one of her children in Iran. On 27 December, the day of the Ashura demonstrations, she was accused of taking part in the protests and arrested.

Then Zahra Bahrami effectively disappeared amongst the thousands who have gone through the Iranian prisons since last June's election. She had changed her name slightly to Sahra Baahrami on her Netherlands passport, so no one --- if they knew of her plight --- apparently made the connection between the woman was now in prison and the Dutch citizen.

In April, Reporters and Human Rights Activists in Iran (RAHANA) wrote:
45-year old Zahra Bahrami was brutally arrested and taken to Ward 209 of Evin on December 27, 2009 during the Ashura protests. She has been held in solitary confinement in Ward 209 since her arrest more than 3 months ago. Bahrami has been interrogated numerous times during her detention. The sessions last several hours and are comprised of physical and psychological torture, as well as incessant vulgar insults.

And there was more: some Iran-watchers spoke of the charge of "mohareb" (war against God). If true, that meant Bahrami faced the death penalty if she was convicted.

There was no indication of Bahrami's dual citizenship --- RAHANA said, "Due to her unknown status, Bahrami has been subjected to the harshest physical and mental torture techniques" --- however, when we noted, "Activists are playing close attention to her case," we had learned from EA readers that Bahrami was an Iranian-Dutch national. One of them pointed us to a website which provided further information and urged people to write letters to the Dutch Foreign Minister, Maxine Verhagen, to highlight Bahrami's plight.

This past week, those campaigns culminated in a joint expression of concern by Amnesty International and the Dutch Government. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs at The Hague said, amidst the growing chatter on the Internet, that it had "attempted to obtain an explanation from Iranian authorities, but none [had] been provided". However, with the family confirming to the Ministry on 23 June that Bahrami had been detained and with clarification a month later over the change of name on her passport, Dutch authorities were now convinced of the seriousness of the case.

So now Zahra Bahrami's story is no longer confined to "hot spots" in the new media. EA readers in The Netherlands continued to spread information, and they now report that the political prisoner's situation has moved from dozens of websites to national news and Radio Netherlands Worldwide.

Tuesday
Aug242010

Iran Feature: Why "Normal" Is Not Bad (Pedestrian)

Pedestrian writes:

These days, when I talk to my friends in Iran, hardly anyone, even the most politically active, talks about politics anymore.

I’m certainly not claiming that my friends are a representative of the entire Iranian population – they certainly are not. But it was at first somehow disappointing to hear them disregard the latest political news the way when, just months ago, they were the ones filling me in on things I might have missed. Now, even when I bring up things like “Did you read Mousavi’s latest letter?” or “Did you hear about so-and-so’s outrageous prison sentence?”, they are quick to change the subject.

When I ask them about their schools, they tell me that most students are back to trying to catch up on their school work, admissions, master’s entrance exam, etc., etc. There is very little talk of politics.

And yet you hear daily of new arrests, new prison sentences, new letters from prison. Many of those on hunger strike are students. These direct threats and hurdles are also a daily reality for a part of Iranian society that has continued the fight. As Mohammad Nourizad said in his interview: “These are realities we are living amidst.”

It is not that my friends are indifferent towards these realities. But it was somehow disappointing for me that they do not pursue them with the same vigor they did just a few months ago. My own unease about this made me uneasy, so I had to ponder it a little more.

These feelings are exasperated when I meet seemingly reasonable Iranians who insist that life shouldn’t go back to normal in Tehran, that things are still in a state of chaos and people are organizing against the establishment 24/7 ”until the regime is toppled”, “Khamenei stands trial”, and “Freedom is achieved”. “We can’t take anymore of this,” they insist, “The youth of Iran will get us freedom soon.”

Maybe they mean well, but as someone who was one of those “youth” not long ago, I feel these words are said self-servingly. I am more certain of this when I tell them about my observation --- that most of my friends have indeed gone back to their usual lives --- and it angers them.

I realize that following the news on Iran for many on the outside, is a break from a life of daily calm, and a step into chaos. For my friends, this chaos is everyday reality. The latest policy change, change of university chancellor, ban, sanction, etc., etc. is what they live with. For many outside Iran, finding out about these things, no matter how painful or difficult, has little connection to the physical, tangible reality of their everyday lives (although it has extreme repercussions for our mental, spiritual and psychological lives, but that’s another story). I want to be up-to-date with news in Iran, but my immediate life – work, school, bills, etc – would be no different whether I did or didn’t.

My friends don’t have that luxury.

In essence, maybe things have gone back to the way they always were: our people don’t forget. But rather, they’ve become experts at carrying on this heavy baggage while simultaneously getting on with their lives. It is a painful art form that maybe only an Iranian would truly understand.

And maybe as someone on the outside, a part of me wants to see them still leave their lives on the back burner, as they did last June, and only show concern for certain political aspirations? In a very selfish way, am I trying to feel better thinking that this would guarantee a “quicker” result? As if my friends are trained soldiers who should be fighting on my behalf, and if ever they stop fighting, or at least not enough, it ticks me off?

This is a question I have always come back to when following the student movement, both as an insider, and as someone watching from the outside.

On one level, their activism seems necessary for the greater democratic movement in Iran. On another, I think it is in the best interests of the students themselves to focus on their school work, and not have to pay such a hefty price. Having worked closely with the Muslim Students Association at my school, I know that the students themselves and their families faced this dilemma every single day even when the environment was less lethal: do we become more politically active and risk everything? Or mind our own business and just get on with our lives? Do we organize Mohsen Kadivar’s visit to our school (as we did) or is it too much of a risk? Do we design a poster for Ghods Day or no?

I think that’s a nuance that’s often missing in analysis that comes from the outside, however, as we just like the students to be active, to applaud them for pushing both the democratic aspirations of the country and their own generation. From afar, they are more like a band of warriors than real kids with fears and aspirations whose dreams are often jeopardized or shattered by political activity, and who may be better off personally had they not been active politically. These contradictions and complexities are so real when you deal with them on a day-to-day basis.

It seems to me that for now, life has gone back to “normal” --- the painful chaotic normal we are used to --- in Tehran. And that is a good thing. People need to live their lives; they need to take trips and go to work and eat at jolly family dinners. For those who know Iran, they know that the events of last June did not come out of thin air. They were a continuum of what had come before. And this story is anything but finished. It is simply somewhere else – somewhere other than it was a year ago.

Life goes on in Tehran…but it seems to me that some ill-wishers would rather that it never could.
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