Iraq Video & Analysis: Odierno Sets Up the Long Haul Non-Withdrawal

A big US military public-relations push today, with General Raymond Odierno, the commander in Iraq, appearing on CNN's State of the Union (transcript) and CBS's Face the Nation as well as holding a press conference in Baghdad.

The set-up? American commanders are already looking beyond the nominal drawdown to 50,000 troops on 31 August --- the ostensible reason for the press coverage --- and even beyond the 2011 deadline for the removal of all combat troops. So Odierno is spinning a long-term "strategic partnership" with the Iraqis as the pretext for the continuing military commitment.

Iraq Special: When a War is Not Over (Bacevich)
Iraq Special: Obama Declares Victory. Sort Of. Depends How You Look at It. (The Onion)
Iraq Special: When a Withdrawal Is Not a Withdrawal (Alaaldin)

If all goes well, with an Iraqi government --- a "trustworthy" Iraqi government in Washington's eyes --- formed after months of stalemate, a downturn in violence, and a "reliable" Iraqi army and security forces, then perhaps the US can meet the nominal 2011 target of no combat troops. (Of course, numerous US support forces, trainers, and logistical personnel, as well as "private" American operators, will remain.)

And if all does not go well? Well, Odierno is ready for that, with promises that the US can re-introduce forces. In fact, he was quite happy to set out how that scenario might unfold. There was not only the possibility that the lack of security might draw back in US forces. There was also the prospect of an unacceptable external power grabbing influence.

Who might that be? As Voice of America summarises:

Iran is fueling instability in neighboring Iraq by funding and training Shi'ite extremist groups in the country.

General Ray Odierno told CNN on Sunday that Iran does not want Iraq to become a strong democratic country. He said Iran would rather see Iraq become a "weak governmental institution".