Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear...All Tehran's Fault

The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

Last Saturday, the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Watan reported the statement of Saudi Arabia’s minister of water and electricity, Abdullah bin Abdul-Rahman al-Husayen, that Riyadh was looking at building its first nuclear power plant. The announcement follows a May 2008 US-Saudi Memorandum of Understanding on civil nuclear energy cooperation.

This all seems fairly straightforward. The Saudis, while sitting on oil reserves, diversify their energy production. The US bolsters a strategic alliance.

Except that, of course, in today's framing of the Middle East, everything has to be connected to Iran. Israeli defense officials immediately said that Saudi interest in nuclear power was connected to Tehran's continued quest for The Bomb: "The Saudis are genuinely scared of what will happen if Iran turns nuclear. This is part of their response."

Now Tel Aviv's defense officials probably know that the civilian nuclear programme of Saudi Arabia has been established jointly with the United States, since a Memorandum of Understanding isn't exactly secret, and has been developed within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency regulations. But why pass up a pretext for showing the Iran-inspired “danger of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East”? After all, you can convert not only Saudi Arabia's interest but that of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Egypt into a fear-induced response to the bad boys in the Iranian capital.

Fun Fact 1: Iran has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has not.

Fun Fact 2: Iran has 0 nuclear weapons. Israel has (estimated) 150.

Israel and Palestine: The Latest Manoeuvres of Hamas and Fatah

After Saudi Arabia rejected the US plan for Arab gestures towards Israel to establish diplomatic ties, Saudi King Abdullah warned that the rift among Palestinians was more damaging to their cause of an independent state than the Israeli "enemy".

In a letter to Palestinians gathering at Fatah’s sixth General Assembly, the King said:

"The arrogant and criminal enemy was not able, during years of continued aggression, to hurt the Palestinian cause as much as the Palestinians hurt their cause themselves in the past few months... I can honestly tell you, brothers, that even if the whole world joins to found a Palestinian independent state, and if we have full support for that, this state would not be established as long as the Palestinians are divided."

Abdullah's message comes as Hamas sends stronger signals that it wishes to sign an agreement with Fatah on August 24 in Cairo. On Wednesday, Hamas’s leader in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, stated that Hamas had informed the Egyptian leadership that it wants a unity deal by the 25th.

It is too simple, however, to see this as a one-way Hamas drive for unity. Instead, it appears that the organisation is also looking to pin any blame for failure on Fatah.

Hamas is still guarding against any appearance of weakness and of a Fatah freed to strike a unilateral deal with Israel. So it did not let Fatah delegates leave the Gaza Strip for the West Bank.

Yet Hamas' fears of Fatah "giving in" to Tel Aviv may be overstated. Although some observers expected a significant shift in strategy, the Fatah leadership is not ruling out the option of struggle through arms, although delegates may agree on replacing a statement of 'armed struggle' to 'resistance'. Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas said, "While we stress that we have endorsed the path of peace and negotiations on the basis of international legitimacy, we also reserve our authentic right to legitimate resistance as guaranteed by international law."

So Fatah is aiming at distancing itself further from a “terrorist” Hamas but, at the same time, it is not permitting any political vacuum that Hamas to fill. And that in turn means that Abbas will reiterate Fatah's positions on the right of Palestinian return and the rejection of Jewish settlement construction both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

If Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, which it leads, can get tangible concessions from Israel and if the Obama Administration can get close to a settlement, then Hamas will be stuck inside the Gaza Strip. However, if the process is drawn out, then Fatah will suffer and, conversely, Hamas will strengthen.

Saudi Arabia to US: It is Israel's Move (However You Report It)

For the Associated Press, Saudi Arabia's rejection of a  US request that it establish ties with Israel was pretty cold-blooded. 
 
Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said "bluntly" that his Government was "not interested" until Israel withdrew to 1967 borders, while SoS Hillary Clinton "looked on" during the joint news conference.

Mina Al Orabi offers a much different framing in the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat. Saud al Faisal "was keen to express Saudi Arabia’s 'thanks and appreciation to President Obama and to Secretary Clinton for their early  and robust focus on trying to bring peace to the Middle East'.... However, he  also indicated that 'Israel must decide if it wants real peace, which is at hand, or if it wants to continue obstructing and, as a result, leading the region towards instability and violence.'"

Saud got to the heart of the preference of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks on specific economic and security matters rather than a broad two-state settlement: “Today, Israel is trying to distract by shifting attention from the core issue – an end to the occupation that began in 1967 and the establishment of a Palestinian state --- towards incidental issues such as academic conferences and civil aviation matters. This is not the way to peace.”

For Saud, “The question is not what the Arab world will offer....The question really is: what will Israel give in exchange for this comprehensive offer?"

Asharq al-Awsat also made clear that Secretary of State Clinton was far from mute. She diplomatically restated that the Obama Administration “is committed to comprehensive peace in the region,” and expressed thanks to “the Prince for the leadership that King Abdullah and his government has shown by championing the Arab Peace Initiative".

The Associated Press may want to portray the Saudis as the intransigent obstacles to peace. After all, more than 200 US Congressmen/women have signed a letter to Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah "calling for precisely the measures that Saud rejected and chastising the country for its stance". 

The fact beyond the framing remains, however, that all movement is suspended without a substantive response from Tel Aviv. And if the rumoured White House spin is true --- President Obama will announce a "Middle East plan" after his meeting with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak on 17 August --- that response better come soon.