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Entries in Iran (97)

Sunday
Aug232009

Iran: Assessing the Challenge to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

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AHMADINEJAD KHAMENEISince the start of the post-election crisis, our assessment at Enduring America has been that the primary challenge within the Iranian system is to President Ahmadinejad's authority; we've gone so far as to argue that he is a "lame duck" even before his second term is underway. Despite flutters over the last week that the Green opposition is spent and that Hashemi Rafsanjani has caved in, we stand by that analysis.

Maryam at Keeping the Change has her own critique of this issue:

The "Freedom to Challenge:" Public Criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamanei


For more than two months, the world has watched as Iran's Reformists have battled with Establishment figures over the June 12th election results. In recent weeks, the friction within Iran's Establishment has received comparable attention, becoming headline grabbing news for media outlets across the globe. Whether it's conservative-camp criticism against Ahmadinejad or statements attacking the Supreme Leader by former MPs and religious figures, the international press has been up in arms, "probing," "examining," and "demystifying" what it has understood as " significant challenges" from inside and outside the Establishment to Ahmadinejad and Khamanei's continued power.

This response to the public outpourings of approbation, while unsurprising, is to a certain extent an exaggeration of the situation. Admittedly, Iran is hardly a bastion of individual liberty, with freedom of speech, much like the right to vote, being a much circumscribed right within the Islamic Republic. Nonetheless, whatever its quality, political criticism in Iran does exist in a limited form. To whit, "freedom of speech" bubbles over, as long as the denounced subject is relatively powerless and, therefore, a non-controversial target.

In this spirit, criticism of Ahmadinejad is alive and well in the country -- even prior to the June 12th elections, robust challenges to Ahmadinejad and his policies came in all shapes and sizes, from the highest-echelons of the government to the man on the street. Public censure of the Supreme Leader is, however, another matter entirely. As many have noted by now, instances of open criticism against the Leader are unheard of and overt critics of Khamanei few and far between (the government is widely-believed to be responsible for the 1995 death of Ahmad Khomeini, son of the Islamic Republic's founding father and a vocal critic of Khamanei). The current outpouring of sentiment critical of the Leader should, therefore, rightly cause the world to stand up and take notice. At the same time, however, interpreting these public statements as representing a political threat to the Leader's continued rule is another matter entirely.

Read rest of article....
Sunday
Aug232009

Iran: Government Says, "Overweight? Try Prison"

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

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ABTAHI PRESS 1From Press TV, "Ahmadinejad aide says jail improves health condition":

Amid concerns over health conditions and treatment of Iran's post-vote detainees, an aide to the Iranian president moves to defuse the controversy by saying that serving time in prison helps you understand the importance of keeping your weight under control.

Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, addressed concerns over health conditions of jailed Reformist figure Mohammed-Ali Abtahi.

Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a Reformist cleric, appeared in one of Iran's mass post-election trials saying that the three opposition leaders - Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani formed an alliance in which they "promised to always back each other up" in their efforts to rob the presidency from its 'legitimate winner.'

Following the televised trial, photos of Abtahi circulated the media with human rights activists and opposition figures questioning the credibility of the confessions made by Abtahi who had lost visible weight.

In an interview on Saturday, President Ahmadinejad's advisor explained why the Reformist figure looked so frail during his appearance at court in Tehran.

"It is only natural for a person who has gained an excessive amount of weight to come to his senses in prison that being overweight is not good for your mental of physical health," Javanfekr reasoned.

"Maybe Mr. Abtahi has seized this opportunity and made an effort to lose weight," he was quoted as saying by Tabnak.

The jailed cleric was an advisor to defeated presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi and is accused of provoking and taking part in protests in the capital, Tehran.
Sunday
Aug232009

Latest Iran Video: Protests from Prisons to Football Stadiums (21-22 August)

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

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In Front of Evin Prison, 22 August

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkWm4-CbwyQ[/youtube]

Azadi Stadium, Tehran, "Ya Hossein! Mir Hossein!", 21 August

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kaQOAg86tw[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkWm4-CbwyQ[/youtube]
Saturday
Aug222009

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles
Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)

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IRAN GREEN

2150 GMT: Before shutting down for the night, one more foreshadowing of our analysis tomorrow on "The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise". An EA correspondent offers further evidence. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in a meeting at the house of Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi (who has subsequently been arrested) with the families of some of the detainee, said, "Principalists that have a conscience are separating themselves from the power-hungry fraction."

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani - We Told You So. A few hours after declaring that Rafsanjani was "closing ranks" with the Supreme Leader, the National Iranian American Council has discovered what we knew all along: Rafsanjani and his party are maintaining their flexibility, especially with their challenge to President Ahmadinejad. The NIAC reveals from the Iranian site Javan-e Farda that Rafsanjani's party is backing Mehdi Karroubi's position on detainees (which we picked up from Rafsanjani's speech today --- see 1715 GMT):
The Executives of Construction has released a statement announcing full support of Mehdi Karroubi’s position on the harassment issue. “Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system.’ These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.”

1715 GMT: The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise. After an unexpectedly lively Saturday afternoon, tomorrow's analysis (which in fact is what we've been projecting for weeks) is shaping up: there is a convergence of disparate forces agreeing on the need to curb the President's authority. In part, that comes from a closer consideration of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement (which, apart from its declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader, is actually pretty close to the recent statements of Mehdi Karroubi). In part, it comes from news such as this....

The "conservative" newspaper Jomhori Eslami has declared, "The abuse of  prisoners is undeniable," citing the Supreme Leader's closure of Kahrizak detention center. Furthermore, "bringing up issues such as velvet revolution" are "fanciful fairy
tales" that must not be repeated, since "these claims have no effect other than providing a service to Iran's enemies by implying that the USA is very strong and has a very strong influence upon Iranian internal affairs".

The newspaper suggests that both "reformist" and "conservative" blocs "must accept mistakes they have made before and after the election, as accepting these realities is a step towards solving the existing problems".

1650 GMT: Just In Case You Were Wondering What the Revolutionary Guard Would Say (Because You Had Been Asleep for Weeks). Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, talking to Basij forces, "revealed" that foreign elements were behind the post-election unrest.

1645 GMT: And yet another reason. Parleman News has posted a summary of Rafsanjani's statement: the support for the Supreme Leader is in conjunction with a call for all to uphold the Constitution and follow guidelines in areas such as detentions. Violators should be punished.

1630 GMT: Another reason why Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council today should not be seen as a surrender (1530 and 1600 GMT): President Ahmadinejad was not at the meeting.

1620 GMT: The Regime Piles on Pressure? Our concern at a possible step-up in detentions of "reformists" (1245 and 1310 GMT) appears to be borne out. Mohammad Maleki, the 76-year-old former Dean of Tehran University, has been arrested.

1610 GMT: Oh, Please. Not even Press TV is buying this Government line, which comes out after reports noting that the nominee for Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires (see separate story). Note the scare quotes in this opening paragraph:
Iran says the international reaction to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for defense minister is a “Zionist plot” to undermine the new Iranian administration.

“[Ahmad] Vahidi was a deputy defense minister and this is a very senior political position,” Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, told AFP [Agence France Presse]. "Therefore it seems that this is a new trick being planned and is basically a Zionist plot."

1600 GMT: In case you're wondering after our previous entry, Rafsanjani's website offers no mention, let alone commentary, on the former President's statement at the Expediency Council.

1530 GMT: Hashemi's Surrender to Khamenei? Not quite.

The National Iranian American Council is making a big deal of Rafsanjani's opening statement at the Expediency Council today, claiming, "it now appears that he is closing ranks with supreme leader Ali Khamenei". It based the analysis on an Agence France Presse reports, quoting from Iranian news agencies, "Powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged Iran’s warring political groups on Saturday to follow the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ending the present political turmoil."

Hmm....The actual statement from Rafsanjani, according to the story, was “the current situation needs everyone to observe the leader’s decrees and advice". That's both very general and far from out-of-line with his stance since 12 June. The former Rafsanjani has never come out in direct opposition to Khamenei; any fight he has is with President Ahmadinejad.

Especially given the setting, a gathering of one of Iran's most powerful bodies, Rafsanjani's statement is simply that he is not taking apart the system of ultimate clerical authority. It remains to be seen where he takes his next step against the political leaders in that system. One could just as easily say, "Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him."

1325 GMT: Another Symbol for the Movement? We are getting a lot of correspondence from readers today about the testimony of a 15-year-old boy, summarised in The Times of London today, who claims he was raped in detention "in a large provincial city".

As journalism, there has to be some caution about the story as it is offered anonymously --- The Times uses a pseudonym for the teenager --- and cannot be verified. As politics (and, more importantly, as a story of humanity and inhumanity), it has to be recognised. In the words of The Times, "Reza is living proof of the charges levelled by Mehdi Karoubi."

1310 GMT: Very Disturbing Signals. Reports are coming in via Twitter of political activists, including Mehdi Karroubi's son, being arrested and summoned to the Government workers' court. We are seeking confirmation.1300 GMT: Be Our Friend. If I were a cynic (which I am not), I would say the Ahmadinejad Government had motives beyond economic co-operation in this development:
Iran plans to offer the majority of stake in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production project to European companies, says a top Iranian energy official.

Three European companies have voiced interest in buying 80 percent of Iran LNG project, Mehr news agency quoted Ali Kheirandish, the head of Iran LNG Company, as saying on Saturday.

I presume none of these companies are from "foreign countries" accused by other Iranian officials of fomenting velvet revolution.

1250 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has extended Mousavi's recent comments about Election Day and its immediate aftermath. He claims that Mousavi’s campaign had meetings with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the judiciary to resolve the issues from the Presidential vote, but there were no will to do so. According to Beheshti, the campaign had reports that Mousavi was ahead in the vote but had signals that there might be manipulation of the ballots as early as 2 p.m. on Election Day.

Beheshti also told Etemaad that he and his family are ready to be arrested.

1245 GMT: A reliable Twitter source says Ebrahim Mehtari of the Mojahedin-Enghelab political party and Campaign 88 has been arrested.

1010 GMT: Take Your Book and Go Home. Authorities have responded to Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing video criticism of the regime by barring his religious monograph from the 17th Koran Exhibition in Tehran.

1000 GMT: Judicial Manoeuvres. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is still looking for a replacement for Tehran's Chief Prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi.

0900 GMT: Battle of the Clerics. Parleman News follows up the story of the contrasting Friday prayer sermons in Tehran and Qom (see yesterday's updates and 0530 GMT), comparing the hard-line address of Ayatollah Jannati and the criticism of the regime by Ayatollah Amini.

0530 GMT: The holy month of Ramadan, in which Muslims abstain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk, has begun. The Supreme Leader's Office announced the start, based on expert sightings of the new month's moon. So have a quartet of Ayatollahs who have challenged the Government: Montazeri, Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Sistani.

Unsurprisingly, the day has begun quietly. Interestingly, the ripples of political challenge are on Press TV's website. It reports that "principlist" MP Ali Motahari, whose public criticism of the Ahmadinjead Administration emerged last month, has called the President's proposed Cabinet "feeble and not proportional to the country's capacities". His far-from-subtle attack claimed Ahmadinejad had picked Ministers for loyalty, not expertise: "Dependent cabinet members would deprive the government of reflective and clear-sighted staff....The President wants to control and rule sensitive ministries like the Intelligence, Interior, Oil, (Islamic) Guidance, and Foreign Affairs, therefore he has chosen dependent nominees to the posts."

The other story that continues to resonate on the website is the post from last night, "In Iran, arrest of opposition leaders is hot topic". The analysis is far from a condemnation of the regime: it features Ayatollah Jannati's call in Friday prayers for the detention of "ringleaders" of post-election demonstrations". At the same time, it frames those protests as legitimate, effectively questioning if not undermining Jannati's demand:
The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president on June 12 sparked an outpouring of anger and contempt among Iranians and massive demonstrations were staged by supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who claim the vote was "fraudulent".
Saturday
Aug222009

Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

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There has been a lot of Internet chatter, now out in the mainstream media such as The New York Times CNN, about President Ahmadinejad's nomination of Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense. The discussion is not as much about Vahidi's command of the Qods Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a background we think is of significance in the evolving battle within Iran's establishment (see Thursday's updates), but about specific allegations of his involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Argentina.

A lot of the chatter has been unsupported, so an EA correspondent offers the visual proof that the proposed Defense Minister is indeed the suspect sought by Interpol. In the group photo of the proposed Iran Cabinet, Vahidi is in the second row, fourth from right:

VAHIDI1

And here's the photo accompanying the Interpol warrant for "Ahmad Vahidi" for "CRIMES AGAINST LIFE AND HEALTH, HOOLIGANISM/VANDALISM/DAMAGE":

VAHIDI2

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