The Latest on Iran (10 August): Threats and Concessions

NEW Iran: The Karroubi Letter to Rafsanjani on Abuse of Detainees
UPDATED More Iran Drama: Will Rafsanjani Lead This Friday’s Prayers?
Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Battle in Parliament
The Latest from Iran (9 August): Once More on Trial

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1830 GMT. Sinking. Ship. Etc. Further to our news that members of Parliament have criticised President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence, Sadegh Masouli, two MPs have gone public with more revelations of trouble. Javad Arianmanesh, an MP from Mashhad, has stated that the probability of a vote of confidence for Mahsouli, who is the current Minister of Interior, is very weak, and Mehrabian, Aliahmadi and Eskandari (Ministers of Industry, Education, and Agriculture) are also unlikely to go through. Mr. Hosseini, the MP from Gharaveh and member of the Parliamentary Energy Commission, has asserted, "In these conditions more that half of the ministers will not get a vote of confidence".

In these circumstances, Ahmadinejad's selection of Masouli was either very brave or very stupid: the Interior Ministry had difficulty getting confirmation last year amidst a running battle in the background between Ahmadinejad and Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani.

1710 GMT: Aftab News is repeating the assertion that Rafsanjani will not lead the Friday prayers. Still no comment from the former President's website.

1705 GMT: In a new directive the Intelligence Ministry has warned the media to "refrain from publishing information that has been classified as top secret material by this ministry....This includes documents, identity of Intelligence Ministry personnel, information about the hierarchical framework of Intelligence Ministry etc....Ignoring the rules and regulations in this matter would lead to legal prosecution."

I am sure this announcement has nothing to do whatsoever with the revelations of the mass firings by the President of Ministry of Intelligence personnel.

1700 GMT: Etemade Melli, the newspaper affiliated with Mehdi Karroubi, has jumped in on the controversy over Hashemi Rafsanjani, considering the statement from the Friday prayers committee: "It seems that such a decision [Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran] has been made because of concerns that the last blatant display of popular support that greeted Rafsanjani last time will be repeated. The question remains that was this decision made [by the committee] due to governmental pressure or that Rafsanjani himself decided to not lead the prayers".

1635 GMT: The Trouble Begins. Reports are emerging that members of Parliament have rejected President Ahmadinejad's choice for Minister of Defence.

1615 GMT: Larijani and the Investigations Gambit. From the start of the crisis, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has positioned himself against the Government by pressing for inquiries into claimed abuses by the security services.

He is doing so again but with a potentially more significant intervention. Speaking to journalists on Monday, he said that Mehdi Karroubi's graphic claims of mistreatment of detainees, including rapes of women and young men, must be investigated. Larijani's statement is even more significant because Karroubi's claims were initially in a private letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani. The letter was published yesterday (see our updates) in the Karroubi-affiliated newspaper Etemade Melli.

1510 GMT: Now the muddle over the Revolutionary Guard's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi. Our translation of the latest statement from the Guard is "In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues.”

Does that constitute, as we summarised at 1330 GMT, a call that the opposition leaders should be "brought to justice"?

1500 GMT: Confusion. The top two stories today --- Rafsanjani's status for Friday prayers in Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard's statement about opposition leaders --- are now caught up in political muddle and possibly intrigue.

First, Rafsanjani. As we reported at 1335 GMT, the Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that Rafsanjani's office has announced the former President will not lead Friday prayers. BBC Persian is reporting, without referring to ILNA, that Rafsanjavi has stepped aside. CNN is even more blatant (and thus far from completely accurate): “A powerful former president of Iran who has become a critic of the regime will not lead Friday prayers this week, despite earlier reports that he would, his office said Monday.”

However, ILNA's article is curiously close to the line set out by the head of the Friday prayers, Seyed Reza Taghavi (1120 GMT), and there is no statement on Rafsanjani's website. It is also worth remembering that, before Rafsanjani led prayers on 17 July, there were false reports on state media that he had withdrawn.

Interpretation for the moment? Until there is confirmation from Rafsanjani's own people, this should be treated as an attempt either to bump the former President into stepping down or to mislead people that he will not be appearing.

1335 GMT: The Iranian Labor News Agency is claiming that Rafsanjani's office has issued a statement saying the former President will not lead Friday prayers this week. for "the prevention of political conflict."

1330 GMT: Correction --- The Revolutionary Guard Stands Firm? This is being quite a complex, even confusing, but important story. A reader updates that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, while denying that IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari asked for the detention of opposition leaders, has NOT withdrawn the article written for its journal by the head of the political office, Yudollah Javani. Indeed, the article is still prominently displayed on the journal's website.

In other words, the general position is still that the "ringleaders" of the post-election disturbances should be brought to justice, although the head of the IRGC is not asking --- at this point --- for specific arrests.

1120 GMT: Seyed Reza Taghavi, the head of the commitee for Friday prayers committee, has said Hashemi  Rafsanjani will not lead this Friday's service in Tehran "to prevent political manipulation".

0930 GMT: Is Kahrizak Still Open? We had heard a disturbing rumour over the last few days about the Kahrizak prison, where detainees were abused and some killed and whose closure was announced by the Supreme Leader.

Now, less than a day after the head of the prison was arrested for his role in the treatment of detainees (0540 GMT), Mowj-e-sabz, the outlet of the Green movement, carries the story: "Kahrizak Detention Facility Is Still Functioning".

Unconfirmed reports from inside Iran, passed to Enduring America, claim the prison still has 1200 detainees.

0815 GMT: We've just posted a separate EA exclusive on the developing battle between President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian Parliament.

0800 GMT: I won't dare say it yet, but another Enduring America correspondent will, "The denial [of the threats to arrest opposition leaders] may be a signal that parts of the Revolutionary Guard are not supporting Ahmadinejad and Khamenei 100%. Just as there is a rift between the conservative fractions, there are also fractures in the Guard."

0740 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard Retreat. The Public Relations Office of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards has issued a statement denouncing "the efforts of some foreign media to attribute statements to General Mohammad Ali Jafari with regards to trying and sentencing some of the presidential candidates and other individuals". The statement continues, "What these media have said is media deviousness and is completely untrue.....In the holy establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, legal methods have been defined to deal with those who break the law and it is the duty of the judiciary to respond to these issues."

Although the statement does not refer specifically to the Javani article that we analysed below (0540 GMT), that presumably is also now thrown in the bin. So....

Why did the Revolutionary Guard back down on their weekend threats?

0540 GMT: A relatively quiet start to the day, so news coverage is dominated by yesterday's threat to arrest Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. The warning was issued by the head of the political office of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, General Yadollah Javani in an article in the IRGC's weekly journal: “If Mousavi, Khatami, [Ayatollah Mohammad] Mousavi Khoeiniha [Iran's prosecutor general after the Islamic Revolution], and Karroubi are the main suspects believed to have been behind the velvet coup in Iran, which they are, we expect the judiciary ... to go after them, arrest them, put them on trial and punish them according to the law."

Discussion of the Javani statement spread quickly, buttressed by a report in a Dutch newspaper that an arrest warrant had already been issued for Mousavi. According to Afshan Ellian, an Iranian professor now living in the Netherlands, his "reliable sources" said, "It is a carte blanche: [the authorities] are free to decide when and how they want to execute the arrest."

Such stories, while dramatic, should be seen more as political pressure rather than as the signal for the detention of the opposition leaders. Indeed, Javani's article can be read as an admission that the Revolutionary Guard, after two months of protests, is feeling the pressure. Unable to crack the opposition by responding to "illegal" demonstrations with violence and detentions, facing growing resentment of President Ahmadinejad amongst "conservatives", and caught up in a bureaucratic war in areas like the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC is lashing out. In the evolving grand scheme of manoeuvres, the threat is a secondary support for the main public challenge of the Tehran trials.

It is notable that, apart from the IRGC, only a small if vocal Parliamentary group is pressing for the arrests. And it is also notable that one name which is never mentioned as a possible detainee is Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Meanwhile, the other story carrying over to this morning is the Government's concession with its firing and arrest of the head of the Kahrizak detention centre. The sudden move, announced yesterday afternoon, was and still is easy to read. It is both a tactical step to limit pressure --- if the head of Kahrizak is given up, then others like Iran's police chief may not have to go --- and a strategic step to show that the Government is listening to public concerns over detentions.

The carrot-and-stick approach is likely to continue, but its success may rest on the answers to two question. Can the regime hold up, for the Iranian public, both its limited but symbolic admissions that some "good" Iranians suffered from rogue cases in rogue prisons and its line that a minority of its citizens must be punished for the "foreign plot" against Tehran? If so, then Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami don't have to be arrested; they just have to take on the image of internal leaders of the overseas plan.

And can the regime split off Rafsanjani, meeting some of his public concerns and looking for a private compromise on his role (and that of President Ahmadinejad) within the system, from those other opposition leaders?

The Latest from Iran (5 August): The Inauguration

NEW Video: The Inauguration Protests (5 August)
Translation: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Response to Tehran Trials
Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh
The Latest from Iran (4 August): A Day Between Protests

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2300 GMT: Ayatollahs Sanei and Bayat Zanjani have echoed Ayatollah Montazeri's statements denouncing the trials held last Saturday.

2200 GMT: A third journalist working for the Etemade Melli newspaper has been arrested. Mehdi Yazdani Khorram, the editor of the literature and art section, was arrested by plainsclothes officers at 2030 GMT.

2130 GMT: An important clarrification. Although Rafsanjani is scheduled to deliver a sermon at next week's Friday prayers, it is far from clear that he will take up this opportunity. It should be remembered that Rafsanjani turned down several opportunities to speak at Friday prayers before his last appearance on June 17.

1725 GMT: The resumption of the Tehran trials, scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until Saturday. The reason is unclear.

1715 GMT: Even the choice of Ayatollah Emami Kashani, a "conservative" cleric, to lead this Friday's prayers is far from a firm guarantee of support for the President and the regime. In  a sermon at Jamkaran Mosque, the ayatollah admitted, "The brightness of velayat-e-faqih (supreme leadership) has diminished....[Since the supreme leadership can not solve the problems of the country] may you [Mahdi, the 12'th Imam] reemerge and solve the country's problems."

1700 GMT: Friday's prayers will be led by Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani. That, however, is just a preliminary to the big news:  next week's will be led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1450 GMT: A summary of today before we return to our vacation. Riz Khan of Al Jazeera posted a question which, for Riz Khan, is remarkably ill-phrased: "As Mahmoud Ahmadinejad takes his oath, Will Iran again spiral into another cycle of violent demonstrations?"

The issue, as demonstrated again today, is not another ominous spiral into violence. Gatherings today, which persisted despite the state's attempt to close down visible opposition to the inauguration, continue to express clear concerns and demands (and, notably, without violence). Ahmadinejad's speech, which has already faded into a lack of significance, does nothing to check those concerns.

So the inauguration in fact becomes a sideshow, one boycotted by some politicians and attended by others with ill humour. With the Tehran trial resuming tomorrow, and more importantly with opposition politicians and clerics renewing their challenge, we'll get back to serious business.

1448 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a statement on his website declaring:

These hectic trials just reflect the deep problem which exists in our country. It is definitely not a source of pride to publicly expose such personalities in a mass trial. We made a [Islamic revolution in 1979] revolution so that trials were against criminals. We wanted trials with lawyers, trials with rights for the defendants, trials where the judge acts independently and trials which make the people feel justice prevailing.

Mousavi again denied any links between the opposition and foreign countries, asserting that the problem was an attempt to limit political views: "We have to learn to face other standpoints, listen to what they say, elaborate our own viewpoints and pay attention to their elaborations as well."

1445 GMT: The Islamic society of  engineers, of which Ahmadinejad is a former member, has sent a letter to Ayatollah Rafsanjani. The head of the society, Seyyed Hasan Sobhani-nia, commented that "This letter asks about recent events and Ayatollah Rafsanjani's position regarding them. This letter also states the concerns and worries that this society has regarding the future of individuals attached to the revolution who have played a crucial role in its formation. The society has requested Mr. Rafsanjani to clarify his position regarding these recent events."  The society had previously sent a letter to Ahmadinejad, which Enduring America also posted, asking for his own clarrification.

1440 GMT: A Twitter activist has created a Google map showing the locations of protests across the capital today.

1430 GMT: Gooya. com are reporting that "tens of thousands" of security forces were out on Tehran streets today, especially near Parliament building. Shops in the area were closed.

1415 GMT: The lawyer for detained politicians Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi says he will not attend tomorrow's trial because it is illegal.

1355 GMT: Another Arrested Journalist. In addition to last night's seizure of Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh, the head of Ghalam News, Reza Nourbakhsh, the chief editor of the newspaper Farhikhtegan, was arrested. His office was searched, and some material was taken. 

1330 GMT: Reports that women's rights activist Haleh Sahabiwas arrested in Baharestan Square today.

0800 GMT: BBC World is leading with the story of Ahmadinejad's inauguration. The footage is telling: there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm amongst members of Parliament.

The BBC also has some images of protest outside the Parliament building.

The analysis is not as useful. Jon Leyne, expelled from Iran earlier in the crisis, is saying, somewhat bizarrely, that "most" of the President's speech was directed "at the outside world".

0645 GMT: It appears that the pattern of protest will be repeated today. Instead of a mass gathering, which will be disrupted if not prevented by security forces, there will be a number of "flash" gatherings across Tehran. We'll be back later to give a full assessment.

0627 GMT: More on the "boycott" in Parliament (see 0612). Parleman News revises its report: 57 of the 70 members of the Imam Khomeini Line walked out as Ahmadinejad started his speech.

0616 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi, in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais says that he and Mousavi will never work with Ahmadinejad's Cabinet and that protests will continue. Karroubi said:

We do not want to destroy the government; however, we criticise the actions of the government and we have no intention to help this government....The reality is that the majority of the people do not accept the methodologies and language of Mr. Ahmadinejad. We consider this government to be illegitimate.

0615 GMT: Kazem Jalali, the head of the special Parliamentary committee investigating the conditions of detainees, has resigned, and there are reports that other committee members have quit. No official reasons for the resignations have been given, but there is speculation that the lack of cooperation from judiciary and security officals may be a key factor.

0612 GMT: Parleman News reports only 242 of the 290 members of Parliament attended the inauguration. This suggests that all 46 "reformist" MPs stayed away.

0608 GMT: There is heavy Twitter chatter of protesters demonstrating at the main Tehran Bazaar, effectively trying to shut it down. Cellphone service has reportedly been cut off in central Tehran.

0600 GMT: Even as Ahmadinejad was speaking, the text scroll on the screen announced the next battle within the Establishment. The President has two weeks to assemble the names of proposed Cabinet Ministers and put them before Parliament. Given the furour over his recent choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai and his effective takeover of the Ministry of Intelligence, that will not be an easy process.

0555 GMT: Live coverage by Press TV English is available. They are assessing Ahmadinejad's speech, which made claims to "social justice".

0545 GMT: Opposition activists are pointing to images inside the Parliament of empty seats, which would indicate that (as on Monday, when the Supreme Leader confirmed Ahmadinejad) many have stayed away from the ceremony, and of growing demonstrations elsewhere in Tehran.

Morning Update (0535 GMT): Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been inaugurated as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran for a second term, despite a disputed election result almost eight weeks ago.

The President was not deterred by such questions in his acceptance speech, claiming the mandate of 25 million votes (even the suspect official tally gave him "only" 23 million).

Reuters is reporting a demonstration of "hundreds" in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament building.

The Latest from Iran (4 August): A Day Between Protests

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader’s Warning to Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh
Iran Video: The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” (3 August)
Iran Video: The Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and Tehran Trial (2-3 August)
The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

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2000 GMT: Potentially serious development: Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh the person in charge of Ghalamnews during the elections has been arrested and his computer confiscated.

1425 GMT: The Times of London reports on the controversy yesterday sparked by Britain sending its second most senior diplomat in Tehran to yesterday's endorcement ceremony. The attendance of Patrick Davies, the British Embassy’s deputy head of mission, was criticised by opposition politicians. The Foreign Office defended its decision, arguing that it had to keep talking to the regime about its nuclear programme, human rights and other pressing issues, and that “to do this, communication channels have to be open”.

1300 GMT: Just in from our correspondent, Mani. Ayatollah Mohaghegh-Damad ( professor of Islamic law and philosophy) in an open letter to Shahroudi has slammed the legality of the recent televised trials and the performance of the judiciary. Ayatollah Damad characterized these televised trials as "an infamous blot on Islamic Jurisprudence".

1245 GMT: Tangential Editorial of the Day. Initially I thought The Washington Post meant well in its comment on the Iran situation, even if it immediately resorted to Cold War language: "Borrowing a page from Stalin's Russia, Iran's increasingly wobbly regime has embarked on a contemptible spectacle of show trials."

By the end of the editorial, however, I realised the Post didn't care that much about those in the streets and on trial: "These are dangerous days in Tehran, which only underscores the dilemma the Obama administration faces as it clings to a strategy of engaging Iran to contain its nuclear ambitions: Who is there to talk to?"

Leave aside for the moment that the question "who to talk to?" is almost abstract, given the current internal situation (as we noted yesterday). How many Iranians consider Iran's "nuclear ambitions" their pressing priority? And, if the answer is "not many at all", doesn't the Post's Cold War rhetoric say more about a US-centric agenda than any concern with freedoms and rights?

1215 GMT: Rabble-Rousing Headline of the Day. From Bloomberg.com: "Pentagon, Eyeing Iran, Wants To Rush 30,000-Pound Bomb Program".

Afternoon Update (1200 GMT) : Ebrahim Yazdi, former Foreign Minister and Secretary General of the Freedom Movement, has warned that Iran is on its way to becoming like the former Soviet Union: "the strongest totalitarian regime with very efficient but corrupt secret police".

Speaing to the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr Yazdi expressed his fears for the fate of the 30-year-old revolution: "The Soviet Union collapsed because the leaders move to reform the system and respond to people's demands came late, and I believe that Iran is going down the same road." Dr Yazdi added:

The difference is that Iran is not an empire to disintegrate into republics, and the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Marxist ideology. But unlike Marxism, Islam will not disappear;
it is part of our identity and culture and I am not worried about Islam. Islam has God to protect it; but I am worried about the republic and democracy in my country.

Morning Update (0630 GMT): We have a special feature on the American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, detained now for almost a month in the post-election crisis, but The New York Times updates this morning on the three American hikers who have fallen foul of Iran's authorities:

The identities of the three young Americans arrested by Iran last week while hiking near the country’s border with Iraq were confirmed Monday by Kurdish officials, who said they were planning to meet for a second time with their Iranian counterparts to discuss the case.

Swiss diplomats representing American interests in Iran, meanwhile, were trying to confirm the detentions with the Iranian Foreign Ministry and were seeking consular access to the detainees.

The newspaper Etemade Melli, associated with Mehdi Karroubi) has been warned by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, "Due to printing untruths and reports that place serious doubts on the legality of the 10th presidential election...the Ministry has given the newspaper a written warning." Those in charge of the newspaper are admonished to "remember to obey legal frameworks" and consider "what may or may not be to the advantage of the country and establishment" when they prepare their articles.

The deputy prosecutor of Tehran says that, when trials of almost 100 defendants resume after the Presidential inauguration, there will be legal representation: "On Thursday each of the accused will get an individual indictment.... and therefore they can introduce their attorneys to the court."