Wednesday
Aug192009
EA Soundcheck: 7 Points on Afghanistan's Presidential Election
Wednesday, August 19, 2009 at 11:54
Iran: Scott Lucas on “Sea of Green Radio”
Iran: Scott Lucas Audio Interview with Fintan Dunne
Enduring America is pleased to announce the launch of a new project, EA Soundcheck, in cooperation with FintanDunne.com. To provide the best in audio analysis to complement EA's blogs, we'll be working with Fintan to get behind the headlines on major international issues.
Today Scott Lucas and Fintan Dunne set out a guide for Afghanistan's Presidential election on Thursday and for its likely significance:
Listen to broadcast....
1. What's it all about?
41 candidates have put their names forward. The first round of balloting is this Thursday. Unofficial results will be put out within days, but official results will not be announced until 17 September. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent, a second round would be held, possibly on 1 October.
2. Who are the frontrunners?
Make that frontrunner in the singular. Current President Hamid Karzai is almost certain to retain office. There was a flutter two weeks with a poll which showed Karzai with "only" 36 percent (although 20 percent had not made a decision) and closest challenger Dr Abdollah Abdollah with 20 percent. Karzai, however, is up to more than 40 percent in latest polls and is cutting deals and spending money to win the bloc votes of villages and clans.
3. So it's a corrupt process?
It's a machine politics process (for those who grew up in the US, think Chicago not too far in the past). The campaign is based as much on deals between political factions and buying loyalties as it is on one person, one vote.
4. Who else to watch for?
Abdollah Abdollah, the former Foreign Minister, has made an impact and gotten a lot of media play with his fluent campaigning style. His support will struggle to move beyond the north and his Tajik base, however, making it unlikely he can push Karzai close in a second round.
Ramazan Bashardost, the former Planning Minister and an ethnic Hazara, has been the surprise of the campaign with a stunning performance in televised debates. His stance against corruption has won plaudits. It will not mean a surprise victory but it could open up the political discourse in Afghanistan.
And then there is Ashraf Ghani, former Finance Minister. Polls show him in single digits but he does bring the American factor.
5. The American factor?
Up to early 2009, it appeared that the US Government was pushing for Ghani to become President. He was getting heavy publicity in the American press, and there were stories of US financial support. However, his extended stay in America began to work against him in the run-up to the campaign, and he could not establish a broad base of support.
So the story is that US officials would like Ghani to become "chief executive" in a Karzai Government. This would keep an eye and possibly a check on the President, both over alleged corruption and plans that might not be in line with those of the US.
6. What does the US Want to Do with Hamid?
Washington has to accept that Karzai, for better or worse, is likely to mobilise the most support on Election Day. The question will become the battle between Karzai's quest for autonomy, e.g., on issues such as negotiations with the "Taliban", and the American desire to control the pace of political and economic development.
7. Is This Really Democracy?
It's not a "fair" process, as set out in the textbooks. The return from exile of General Rashid Dostum, the "warlord" with blood-stained hands who has significant influence in the north of Afghanistan, in exchange for a Uzbek voting bloc (estimated to be up to 10 percent) for Karzai is a marker of political reality.
However, if this process opens up some space, any space, for political empowerment, then it's better than no process at all. The bigger question will be whether the groups within Afghanistan can find some way forward after the election to a modicum of stability. And that question will be bound up not with abstract "democracy" but with the manoeuvring vis-a-vis the Americans.
Iran: Scott Lucas Audio Interview with Fintan Dunne
Enduring America is pleased to announce the launch of a new project, EA Soundcheck, in cooperation with FintanDunne.com. To provide the best in audio analysis to complement EA's blogs, we'll be working with Fintan to get behind the headlines on major international issues.Today Scott Lucas and Fintan Dunne set out a guide for Afghanistan's Presidential election on Thursday and for its likely significance:
Listen to broadcast....
1. What's it all about?
41 candidates have put their names forward. The first round of balloting is this Thursday. Unofficial results will be put out within days, but official results will not be announced until 17 September. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent, a second round would be held, possibly on 1 October.
2. Who are the frontrunners?
Make that frontrunner in the singular. Current President Hamid Karzai is almost certain to retain office. There was a flutter two weeks with a poll which showed Karzai with "only" 36 percent (although 20 percent had not made a decision) and closest challenger Dr Abdollah Abdollah with 20 percent. Karzai, however, is up to more than 40 percent in latest polls and is cutting deals and spending money to win the bloc votes of villages and clans.
3. So it's a corrupt process?
It's a machine politics process (for those who grew up in the US, think Chicago not too far in the past). The campaign is based as much on deals between political factions and buying loyalties as it is on one person, one vote.
4. Who else to watch for?
Abdollah Abdollah, the former Foreign Minister, has made an impact and gotten a lot of media play with his fluent campaigning style. His support will struggle to move beyond the north and his Tajik base, however, making it unlikely he can push Karzai close in a second round.
Ramazan Bashardost, the former Planning Minister and an ethnic Hazara, has been the surprise of the campaign with a stunning performance in televised debates. His stance against corruption has won plaudits. It will not mean a surprise victory but it could open up the political discourse in Afghanistan.
And then there is Ashraf Ghani, former Finance Minister. Polls show him in single digits but he does bring the American factor.
5. The American factor?
Up to early 2009, it appeared that the US Government was pushing for Ghani to become President. He was getting heavy publicity in the American press, and there were stories of US financial support. However, his extended stay in America began to work against him in the run-up to the campaign, and he could not establish a broad base of support.
So the story is that US officials would like Ghani to become "chief executive" in a Karzai Government. This would keep an eye and possibly a check on the President, both over alleged corruption and plans that might not be in line with those of the US.
6. What does the US Want to Do with Hamid?
Washington has to accept that Karzai, for better or worse, is likely to mobilise the most support on Election Day. The question will become the battle between Karzai's quest for autonomy, e.g., on issues such as negotiations with the "Taliban", and the American desire to control the pace of political and economic development.
7. Is This Really Democracy?
It's not a "fair" process, as set out in the textbooks. The return from exile of General Rashid Dostum, the "warlord" with blood-stained hands who has significant influence in the north of Afghanistan, in exchange for a Uzbek voting bloc (estimated to be up to 10 percent) for Karzai is a marker of political reality.
However, if this process opens up some space, any space, for political empowerment, then it's better than no process at all. The bigger question will be whether the groups within Afghanistan can find some way forward after the election to a modicum of stability. And that question will be bound up not with abstract "democracy" but with the manoeuvring vis-a-vis the Americans.
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