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Entries in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (34)

Friday
Apr302010

The Latest from Iran (30 April): The Heaviness of the Atmosphere

2200 GMT: Political Prisoner (Death) Watch. Back from a media break for the British election to find confirmation that death sentences have been handed down to Mohammad Ali Haj-Aghayi and Jafar Kazemi for mohareb (war against God), ties to the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq, and propagating against the regime.

Both men were arrested during the Qods Day demonstrations on 18 September.

NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Green Movement is Growing in Society”
UPDATED Iran: Tehran, Defender of Rights (Don’t Mention Boobquake), Joins UN Commission on Status of Women
NEW Latest Iran Video: Shirin Ebadi on the Human Rights Situation (23 April)
Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations


1825 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student Abolfazl Ghassemi has been sentenced to three years in prison.


1815 GMT: Karroubi's High Profile. Mehdi Karroubi continues the push of opposition initiatives with a declaration to student activists, which we have posted in a separate entry, that the Green Movement is on the rise in Iranian society.

Karroubi has also issued a statement, on the eve of May Day and National Teachers Day, congratulating Iran's workers and teachers.

1450 GMT: Cyber-News (or Lack of It). Khabar Online reports that filtering is now affecting the blogs of "hardliners" and popular writers.

1440 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani wowing the faithful in Tehran today and it's all USA, USA, USA.

Emami Kashani downplayed "the enemy's plots" and said it "will not succeed in its attempt to halt Iran's peaceful nuclear activities through deception and trickery".

The cleric reiterated the remarks of the Supreme Leader that nuclear weapons as "illegal and haram (forbidden)" under Islam. "Despite this," he added, "We are witnessing that the enemy is leveling countless accusations against the country and is threatening us with sanctions....[These] will be rendered useless in the face of the Iranian nation's vigilance."

Despite the firm words against Western immorality, Emami Kashani made no reported reference to women's breasts and earthquakes.


1435 GMT: Labour Watch. After workers of a Bandar Abbas shipbuilder were dismissed, 300 employees protested against assignment to temporary employment agencies.

1400 GMT: Taking Notice. Another sign that the recent Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi initiatives are reviving the interest of "Western" media in the opposition: The New York Times posts an article on yesterday's Mousavi video, "Iran Reformist Tries to Enlist Labor and Teachers".

1355 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International publishes its report, "Iran: Journalists Under Siege". The study, which says more than 70 journalists are detained (see our separate entry for 101 who have been held during the post-election crisis), asserts: "Iranian journalists and bloggers are increasingly under siege in one of the biggest crackdowns on independent voices and dissent in Iran's modern history."

1345 GMT: Back from a lengthy academic break to find a flurry of news. Rah-e-Sabz has summarised Mehdi Karroubi's phone conversations with two prominent detainees, student leader Abdollah Momeni and reformist politician Feizollah Arabsorkhi.

0910 GMT: Teachers' Corner. Following our reports of a crackdown on teachers in advance of National Teachers Day, including the arrest of the head of the Teachers Organization, Alireza Hashemi, RAHANA has an overview of the attacks on the headquarters of the teachers' unions and the homes of the members and the hacking and hijacking of websites.

0905 GMT:Economy Watch. Rah-e-Sabz posts a summary of the position of women workers, claiming that they face discrimination, insults, and dismissals and have no social security under the Ahmadinejad Government.

0800 GMT: Get-Tough Alert. I am wondering if we need to launch a "Mesbah Yazdi Watch". The cleric, as Mr Verde noted yesterday, has been quite vocal in recent days, and it seems he is going moving to the front of the "hardliners": "If we had treated post-election protest mildly like earlier governments, no one knows which catastrophe would have come about the country."

0750 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Saeed Soudmelli, arrested 31 December as he filmed traffic on his cellphone in Tehran, has been sentenced to a year in prison for "acting against national security".

Soudmelli’s relatives said he was interrogated through multiple-choice questions such as, “Which of the following people do you hold responsible for the recent events and your own arrest: A – Mousavi, B – Ahmadinejad, C – Yourself, or D – The Government?”

0745 GMT. Beyond Satire. In the week of Boobquake and Tehran's campaign to ban tanning salons, we've got an update in a separate entry: Iran has been voted onto the UN Commission on the Status of Women.

0705 GMT: What's Mahmoud Doing? Well, yesterday President Ahmadinejad opened a cement factory in Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchistan.


0700 GMT: Economy Watch. Credit to Patrick Barry in Foreign Policy who, picking up on news and signals we've been following for weeks, assesses the fragile state of Iran's economy. He has a stinger of a conclusion:
Based on the regime's track record of incompetence and the consequences of that incompetence for the Iranian economy, the U.S. would be wise to take a step back, allowing Iran to continue on its present course....Congress is searching for the most effective means to weaken the Iranian economy; the best approach may be for it to do nothing at all.

0620 GMT: Influence and Time Magazine. Last December, Time took the controversial decision of striking "the Iranian people",  despite their overwhelming victory in a poll of readers, from their finalists for Person of the Year.

Not sure if this is sufficient consolation, but Mir Hossein Mousavi has been named the most influential person in the world for 2010 in Time's online ballot, with almost twice as many votes as the runner-up, Chinese novelist Han Han.

0615 GMT: The Isolation of Ahmadinejad. Muhammad Sahimi offers his analysis of internal tensions, offering detail on the corruption scandals that challenge the President and looking at Iran's international position and the manoeuvres over its nuclear programme to conclude:
If Ahmadinejad's isolation held no potential for a lasting effect on the nation as a whole, it would not be so important. But the fact is that his isolation -- the consequence of electoral theft, violent crackdowns on peaceful protesters, rampant corruption, and the pursuit of a foreign policy simultaneously aimless and aggressive -- directly threatens Iran's national security and territorial integrity.

0600 GMT: We begin this morning with two features looking at repression and the discussion (or lack of it) inside Iran. With the help of Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now, we have the videos of last week's talk by Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi on the human rights situation. And we post the reportage of Katherine Butler of The Independent of London, who was allowed into Iran to cover the Tehran conference on nuclear disarmament but seized the opportunity to do a few interviews with Iranians about the state of fear and tension.
Friday
Apr302010

Iran First-Hand: Fear and Loathing in Tehran (Butler)

Katharine Butler of The Independent of London, who was given a visa to cover Tehran's nuclear disarmament conference, seized the opportunity to assess the mood of Iranians over the internal situation. Butler is shaky in her understanding of some of the politics, such as the situation and methods of Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi, and I am not wholly in agreement with her reading of events. Still, this is the most vivid snapshot of Tehran I have seen in a "Western" publication in months:

If showing affection in public was the indication of a happy society, then the signs from Iran would be encouraging. At the outdoor tables of a restaurant near the base of the snowy Alborz mountains north-west of Tehran, a young couple is not exactly canoodling, but his arm is stretched behind her shoulders and she's resting her head on his neck. The parks in the centre of the Iranian capital too are full of youthful couples holding hands, the odd pair even kissing with impunity as they stroll in the April sunshine.

Latest Iran Video: Shirin Ebadi on the Human Rights Situation (23 April)
The Latest from Iran (30 April): The Heaviness of the Atmosphere


 A springtime of free love in the Islamic Republic? Hardly. Not, in any case, for the election protesters on death row, or the political prisoners whose lawyers claim they have been dosed with sedative drugs before their trials. The atmosphere has not been as oppressive for years, so a little steam needs to be taken out of the pressure cooker: let the young hold hands, and they'll think less about their stagnant lives or demonstrating in the streets. That, at any rate, is one local interpretation I am given.

 
No visas have been issued to Western media organisations to report from Iran since the disputed June 2009 election and the popular uprising that followed. But with the attention of Iran's Western adversaries fixated on trying to isolate Iran over its supposed nuclear threat, and Barack Obama seeking to drive a fourth round of sanctions through the UN, the government's quixotic-as-ever response is to host an international summit on nuclear disarmament, and invite the Western media in to cover it.

From the moment you slip your headscarf on in preparation for the pre-dawn touchdown at Imam Khomeini Airport you feel literally hemmed in. Getting the stamp on your entry visa is just the start, then you need a laminated press pass, a stamped certificate detailing in which areas you have authorisation to move.

Iranians have a penchant for polite ambiguity. This time there is polite clarity. I can apply for interviews, but it will be a waste of time. More tellingly, I am warned that no amount of paperwork will protect me if I am detained by an "irregular" branch of the security or intelligence services while interviewing members of the public. Is this perhaps an indication of the internal struggles that are said to be raging?

The Laleh International Hotel is where visiting journalists are encouraged to stay because it is run now by the Islamic Guidance Ministry. Before the 1979 revolution it was the American-owned Intercontinental. The blue outdoor swimming pool stands empty, the famous wine cellar is long gone. Most of the guests are either Chinese businessmen or groups of elderly Americans on archaeology tours, the women gamely struggling with tunics and hijabs over breakfast. They are charmed by the legendary Iranian hospitality they've encountered everywhere. If they notice the men from intelligence hanging around the lobby, they don't seem bothered.

It takes me a while to understand why so many people reach silently for their mobile phones, only speaking when they've removed the batteries. "Even among ourselves, we don't talk about the political situation now. You get into a shared taxi and the music is turned up loud immediately," says one who returned from exile to support the 1979 Islamic revolution. "People are scared. We have memories of the Savak."

The last time I was here, in spring 2009, people were fired up about the impending election. They openly attacked the government's mishandling of the economy, the rampant corruption. Even conservative girls in chadors were openly rude about the President. Ahmadinejad was "a joker", "a clown", "a big puppet".

In the 10 months since the poll, the prevailing atmosphere has grown queasy with fear and suspicion. Months of arrests, detentions, harsh sentencing, forced confessions, reports of people being raped or beaten to death in detention, and televised show trials have cast such such fear that some Iranians have begun comparing the atmosphere to the one that prevailed in the Iraq of Saddam and the Baath party.

Under the returned President Ahmadinejad the internal clampdown on "enemies of the regime" has been stepped up. Sons of pillars of the establishment have been arrested. TV economists, blogging clerics, even internationally acclaimed figures like the film maker Jafar Panahi have been jailed. Two of those arrested during the protests have been convicted as "ringleaders" and hanged, nine more are awaiting execution. A purge of liberal academics is believed to be under way in the universities.

The Savak were the Shah's feared secret police. Suspected enemies of the despotic monarch were fried alive on electric plates in their torture chambers. Nobody felt safe, people were terrorised just by the notion that anyone, even their best friend, could be a Savak spy. And anyone could be held and tortured even if they had done nothing wrong, just to spread fear.

Nobody is suggesting yet that things are as bad as in the final days of the despotic Western-backed Shah. And whether Nokia mobile phones can really be used as conversational bugging devices (mobile phone calls and texts are routinely monitored) seems unlikely. But the powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, an elite parallel army, controls the Ministry of Communications. And many believe that the Guards mounted what was in effect a coup during the election. If people fear they are being listened to, the effect could be as chilling as it was in 1978.

The Basij, a volunteer youth militia controlled by the Revolutionary Guards, administered much of the brutality to the street protesters. They number at least a million, and are hated. The wife of a friend went to help her 18-year-old daughter buy a new jacket. "We searched for something that would make her look ugly. The last thing you want is to enrage the Basij by looking attractive." "Attractive" is code for provocative, and these days only the foolhardy would seek to provoke.

The police-state atmosphere sits oddly with the urbanised familiarity. Parts of Tehran could be Germany, or Belgium. The efficient air-conditioned metro puts London's Tube to shame. On the surface, things look normal.

But the political landscape has undergone a transformation since the election. The checks and balances built into the complex architecture of the state, which used to give Iran a plurality of voices and power centres, have it seems, given way to something more sinister.

Since the disputed poll, power has tightened around a radically hard-line troika: the Supreme Leader, the President and the elite parallel army, the Revolutionary Guards. Parliament, parts of the clerical establishment and even the judiciary have, according to insiders, lost ground. Some of the clergy in Iran's holy city of Qom are horrified by the repression they believe is dragging the values of the Islamic revolution into disrepute. But more is at stake than the survival of the Islamic state. The struggle between the regime's elites is also about who will control the spoils of an oil economy worth billions of dollars.

Although a layman, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the victorious President, wears his faith on his sleeve. He is a devotee of a millenarian sect who believe that Imam Mehdi, the Shia saviour, who disappeared down a well 1,000 years ago will return in "a time of chaos", a return that is imminent, and that his followers have a duty to prepare for. He emerges triumphantly onto the stage at the nuclear conference after international delegates have first been warmed up with rousing music, sung Koranic verses, and a black-and-white video showing terrifying images of the aftermath of Hiroshima. He greets a mullah with both arms raised theatrically, and then asks us to join him in a prayer for the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam.

Poetry, it is said, flows in the blood of Iranians. That cut little ice when Abbas, a young poet, went to the Behesht-e Zahra cemetery to pay his respects to those who died in the protests.

"We were beaten like animals," he recalls. "They accused us of tearing up pictures of God. It was lies, all lies. We didn't tear up anything."

Seeing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 71, the Supreme Leader unmasked as a ruthless political operator was the biggest shock of the election. "We thought he was a religious figurehead, a fair man, who stayed above the fray," the young poet says. "But then we realised he, not Ahmadinejad, was the one in charge and he condoned the shooting of unarmed people in the streets."

I meet Abbas in a wooded spot in Laleh park, almost dark with the shade of tall pine trees. The mothers of the detained or disappeared tried to gather here once a week after the upheaval of last summer but were bundled away by police. One of the poet's friends, a brilliant student, was recently sentenced to four years in jail for leading protests.

Iranians like them, are lost to the Islamic Republic; they crossed a threshold last June. They went out on the streets to protest an election and ended up rejecting the entire system. The structural weakness, the poet thinks, is the contradiction in Ayatollah Khomeini's constitution between the doctrine of Velayat-I-Faqhi, the sovereignty of the Supreme Leader, and the sovereignty of the people. "How can Khamenei set himself up as the only one who judges what is good, or moral, or who is deserving or within the law? Where does his authority or mandate come from? And if he is infallible, what is the point of elections? It is nonsense. We cannot progress as a society until we shake off our isolation and the superstitions of the people who rule us."

The West's fixation with the nuclear programme is a distraction from what has happened since the election, the poet says. "We hear nobody speaking out about the torture. Does anybody care about our sorrow?"

The young woman accompanying the poet has brought along her French books, her passport to a life abroad, she hopes. Far from being "rich north Tehranis with sunglasses", the kind derided by George Galloway and Iran's ultra-conservatives during the upheaval, they make their living in low-paid clerical jobs earning about $200 a month. He is originally from a provincial village. His parents are conservative and religious. In some ways, they sum up Iran's tragedy. Educated, intellectual and (like most Iranians) under 30; yet neither sees a future unless they can escape.

Real change will take 10 or maybe 15 years, he predicts. "It will happen, but it won't happen for us."

In the meantime, the poet is a victim of the increasingly intolerant censors. "Some poems come back with just one or two words left in a sentence," he says, with a mix of comedy and despair. He tries to get around them by pleading that the love poems are about the love of God. "You see, the conditions, even for freedom of thought, are deplorable."

As we talk, a man in stonewashed jeans and dark glasses walks a little too slowly past not to arouse suspicion. We lapse into silence. Not until he is well out of earshot do we resume, laughing nervously. "We could just say we are talking about some research. You wouldn't believe how stupid they can be," says the poet, perhaps to reassure himself.

Will they go back onto the streets? "For now, the people have no energy," the poet says sadly. "They are drained by fear, of watching over their shoulders. We don't know who we can trust."

Leaving the park, I stumble on an alter-cation between a bearded man in a uniform carrying a truncheon and a young girl. "If you're hot, Miss, why don't you go home and lie in front of a fan. But don't come to a public place dressed like that." Her scarf is indeed skimpy, pushed back to the crown of her head. Otherwise she's modestly covered. She beats a retreat, fixing the scarf, not chastened, cheeks flushed with anger and humiliation as we look on embarrassed.

Friday prayers remains the longest-running piece of political theatre in the Middle East. It's the stage on which Iran acts out its part as the West's pantomime villain: stern, alarming, forever threatening to lay waste to America and Israel.

In reality, it feels a lot more like a well- organised social gathering, and not a very big one when you consider the population of Tehran. My bag disappears into a mobile van for security screening, and mobile phones have to be surrendered to the friendly usher women in chadors with walkie-talkies. There's a printed programme, like the line-up for a concert at Hyde Park. There's even a press office. Ten o'clock start, political speech slated for 12.25. Today it's the Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, on nuclear power. Regiments of the armed forces process down the surrounding streets and into the prayer enclosure.

Women are segregated into a side area, behind a high screen. Those praying place their handbags in front of them as they kneel in rows on the prayer mats.

It's not easy to keep focused on Mr Mottaki's message because of the constant repetition of denunciations, suspicions, warnings, and exhortations. It's not that Iran does not have many justified grievances against the West, grievances that are shared by Iranians of all leanings, from the British-American backed coup which overthrew its democratically elected government in 1953, to the West's endorsement of Israel's secret nuclear weapons arsenal. It's just that he repeats them ad nauseam in a long-winded fashion.

Suddenly he bellows: "The whole world is shouting, 'Nukes for all!'" To which the reply comes "God is Great!".

Then he summons the crescendo, his voice rising to a high-pitched cry.."The Great God will advocate on our behalf....this great nation [louder]...Iran's good answer to the US is [louder]..."

Then the ritual roar "Down with America!"

Then it's Israel's turn. "The Zionist entity should know they are getting one step closer to their own death. So we say....Death to Israel!"

Mottaki's narrative reflects the sense of victimhood about Iran's place in the world. But I wonder too if it isn't about the imperative to sustain a sense of continuing crisis with an external enemy. The headlines on the front pages of the pro-government newspapers like the ultra-conservative Kayhan, serve a similar function. One day last week Kayhan announced: "Obama admits his role in organising the post-election turmoil in Iran..

Behind the prayer area, under a row of trees, a few women take a break in the shade, chatting quietly on the park benches.

Zahra Vaezi, 64, is covered from head to toe in her black chador. "Of course nuclear power is our right. I'm a housewife myself, so it doesn't really affect me, but our scientists need to have this technology."

But is it a good thing to shriek "Death to America" at a prayer event? She smiles: "Well I hope you're not from America, but yes, definitely! You see, America doesn't want us to exist. It's not just that, but they don't care about our faith. They are our enemies."

Before the revolution, she travelled to the UK and Europe. "I would love you to come to my house, you would be so welcome," she says, writing her phone number in my book.

She asks if I'll excuse her because the white-turbaned Mr Sedighi, the presiding cleric, is next and a favourite. Mr Sedighi sermonises in what sounds like a kind, reassuring drone. God loves you no matter what, he is saying. Then he tells worshippers that immorality, or women who dress immodestly can cause earthquakes.

I approach one of the few young people visible at prayers. Zahra Behnoush, a 21-year-old law student in skinny jeans and black headgear like a balaclava admits she only came to buy books. But her script is similar to that of the older woman. It is Iran's "right" she says, to have nuclear energy. "America wants to stop us because they hate Islam, that's their only problem."

"The protests were wrong. The election was credible. Those who demonstrated made an egregious blunder. They are now at a dead end. I'm sure they are looking for another opportunity, but Iran is a strong country, safe and secure, and free."

The law student seems to speak with conviction. The problem for the regime is that the people who attend Friday prayers are the ones who already believe in the West's evil intentions. For countless Iranians, Friday Prayers is the stage where on June 19 last year, Ayatollah Khamenei sealed his loss of legitimacy, and his slide into disgrace, by demanding an end to the protests.

Just behind the main prayer area, women are distributing free snacks piled on tables. Everyone is entitled to one pineapple juice and a wrapped muffin in a clear plastic box. At the end, the soldiers coming out are all carrying their free boxes, like children coming home from a party.

To most of Iran's Facebook generation, the 30-year-old rhetoric about America seems about as desiccated as the dreary talk-shows between bearded men that seem to dominate state television.

Near the university bookshops (where Barack Obama's autobiography is incidentally on sale) a fashionably turned-out young woman with an extravagant fringe is waiting for a bus. She's 19 and on her way to the cleaning job which she combines with her studies.

She's dismissive of the endless chatter about nuclear rights. "One day we are celebrating Iran joining the nuclear club, another day is in honour of yellow cake [the raw ingredient of uranium]. What I think is that Iran should be stopped from getting nuclear energy. Not for weapons and not even for electricity." Why? "Why do we need these nukes? We need jobs. Besides, they can't be trusted to build a car,"

Is she worried about sanctions? Yes, if they hit us – the ordinary people. But if they really work on the people at the top, then America should do it.

But sanctions, in official circles, are dismissed as a joke. Iran's economy, far from going to rack and ruin, is so resilient and strong, insists the Minister of Commerce Mahdi Ghazanfari, that they will have no impact. Much of this is bluster, and Iran is believed to be already stockpiling imports of refined oil (petrol) because while it has massive reserves of crude it does not have enough of its own refining capacity to keep the pumps going. In Mr Ghazanfari's parallel universe, exports of such Iranian goods as pistachios, cement and carpets soared to $21 billion last year. This will help cancel out the effects of sanctions on the oil sector, he boasts, before asking: "After 30 years of sanctions, have you seen any shortcomings here?"

Projected in front of us are colour slides of the dazzling Iranian pavilion for the imminent Expo 2010 in Shanghai. "We hope it will be an opportunity to destroy the negative propaganda we observe in the Western media," Mr Ghazanfari notes dryly. "Practically all countries are chasing after new markets. The sellers need us," he adds. "It is the buyer who is the king."

His non-oil export figures might be suspect (oil and its products account for more than 80 per cent of Iran's exports), but he has a point. Many European corporations trade with Iran selling everything from household appliances to telecommunications equipment. The US wants sanctions targeted at the Revolutionary Guards, but China and Russia are embedded in the energy and defence sectors and will be mindful to protect their long-term interests.

Neither the vice-like grip of the Revolutionary Guards over the economy, nor the widespread public disgust that this mob-like power provokes, is discussed by the Commerce minister. The Guards are thought to control at least a third of the economy, owning vast conglomerates and banking empires, with front companies abroad which will be an extremely difficult force for the West to topple. Their activities reach into everything, from imports of bootleg vodka to exports of Persian cats.

One Iranian I am introduced to has an uncle who served in the Revolutionary Guards having previously been decorated for his service in the Iran-Iraq war. This uncle is no genius – he never finished High School, the family say with disdain. But now he lives "like a king, a millionaire from exporting stone to Lebanon. The stone quarries and all other mining activities are controlled by the Guards, so the uncle doesn't have to be a great businessman; there's no competition.

From the "roof of Tehran" (Bem e Tehran) there's a spectacularly panoramic view of the vast concrete capital in the valley below. Today, the air is unusually smog-free so you can almost see in the windows of the apartment towers. You can also see satellite dishes everywhere.

There is a strange irony about these illegal links with the outside world. On the one hand they give Iranians access to another reality, a welcome change from the worthy one-note fare on offer from state television. And satellite TV is what many in the West assume will tip Iran into a velvet revolution. Yet the dishes symbolise something that may help explain why, despite the fear and loathing, the sorrow of the poet, the young cleaning lady, the language student and millions like them, Iran is not at the tipping point.

The government accuses channels like BBC Persian, Euronews and Deutsche Welle of encouraging sedition. So why not seize the dishes and prosecute the owners, I ask one householder. "Well sometimes they jam the foreign stations. But the dishes are part of the game," he explains. "They turn a blind eye, allowing us to infringe the law, because then you are compromised, you are drawn into a kind of compact. It makes you less likely to raise a fuss about bigger things because you've been allowed to get away with a transgression. That is the game they play with us." It's like allowing young people to hold hands in public, or subsidising the price of bread: it takes steam out of the pressure cooker.

Inflation might be running at 20 per cent and it is common to have to work two jobs. The average salary for a graduate in an office job with years of experience is $300 to $400 a month. Internet access is filtered and slowed, your mobile phone is probably tapped, you can't travel abroad much, but it's not a failed state, even after 30 years of sanctions.

While life is hard economically for millions of Iranians, for the workers in car or china factories who reportedly have not been paid for weeks, for many of the middle classes, it's not yet bad enough to risk challenging the status quo.

Thanks to generous subsidies paid for out of oil revenue, gas and electricity are almost free. Food staples are still relatively cheap and petrol is subsidised. Education is free and health provisions good. As long as you challenge nothing, you can even negotiate some decent perks and live a reasonably satisfactory life shopping in Tajrish, where the stores sell slinky dresses, hair extensions and a lot of nail varnish.

"The Shah made the mistake of not making allies, he failed to keep people satisfied. That was the lesson the revolutionaries learned," one beneficiary of the largesse admitted.

Tajrish shopping district caters for the richer, more secular types. The stores here sell slinky dresses, fishnet tights, hair extensions, a lot of nail varnish. "Before the revolution, you should have seen Iran," one store owner, a man with staring eyes, tells me. "The women could wear whatever they wanted. Minis, maxis, hotpants, everything. It was so...free." He keeps repeating the word "Free!" He might be glossing over the reign of terror overseen by the Shah.

And what of the Green Movement? He slides the palm of one hand over the other in a gesture that suggests it's finished. "Hitler! Our leader, he is like Hitler."

On the other side of the city, at the Grand Bazaar, the merchants, a powerful force, traditionally allied to the forces of clerical conservatism, lament the high inflation but on the record are wary about offering a political view. "Everything is good, very good," I'm told repeatedly.

Down a side alley, through a maze of shops and souks, the carpet wholesalers can be found. Here "Mr A" unrolls a stunning silk rug depicting Persian gardens that would fetch $3,000 in London he says. It can be mine for $700. I think he knows I am not going to buy the carpet, but he wants me to see the colours and textures.

The big carpet dealers from London used to come to him, not buying in ones or twos but hundreds at a time. Now, there are no dealers and few tourists. "All I have left is these people," he says, gesturing to an elderly pair who don't look like wealthy customers. The man has a weather-beaten face like a farmer. "They are Iranian families buying because carpets are what you must buy for your son or daughter when they get married."

His nephew interjects, telling him in Farsi to be careful what he says. "She can put these things on the internet."

"I'm not saying anything I don't defend", says Mr A. "I just don't know why we can't be a modern country. We have beautiful things to show the world."

You should change taxis twice. Don't ask for the intersection of Khosravi Street and Salehi Street or you'll arouse suspicion," I'm told. "Pretend you're going somewhere else. Half of the taxi drivers are spies." I wanted to see the spot where Neda Agha Soltan was killed by a bullet from the gun of a Basij militiaman as she attended a peaceful demonstration on 20 June last year. The final blood-soaked moments of her life were caught on video and seen around the world within hours. For a while it looked like the outpouring of grief over Neda would change the face of the Middle East.

Of course there is nothing official there to commemorate what sympathisers call "Neda Street". Just the word "Neda" in Farsi scrawled in green paint on one or two of the adjoining alleys. The 27-year-old was buried in Behesht e Zahra cemetery. Her grave has been desecrated twice. A government minister has suggested that she was shot by the CIA and the head of the state broadcaster claimed that the videos of her death were made by the BBC.

Many people's faith in the Islamic Republic died with Neda that day.

In a few weeks' time, the first anniversary of the election comes around – and the anniversary of Neda's death. The elderly cleric Mehdi Karroubi who came last against Ahmadinejad in the election has since emerged as a courageous figure and is calling on supporters to mount a renewed assault in the streets. But anti-government forces are a broad coalition, from women's rights activists to labour unions to students and journalists, to old-style political reformists. Despite all the social networking, the tweeting and YouTube information streams, they appear leaderless and drained of impetus. Their last show of strength was on the anniversary of the revolution in February.

The ongoing ill-treatment of political prisoners (some detainees were, alleges Karroubi, raped or tortured to death in the aftermath of the vote) caused profound shock and disgust. This issue is now turning into a political faultline under the regime. Last week, a group of political prisoners sent an open letter to the Grand Ayatollahs in Qom, claiming they were being subjected to "physical, sexual and psychological torture".

The letter said they were warned that if they hired independent lawyers they would be given heavier sentences. Some former prisoners allege they were given up to 12 anti-depressant drugs a day. More significant even than the allegations, is that the complainants went over the head of the Supreme Leader.

"Don't let some individuals, who call themselves the unknown soldiers of the hidden Imam (the agents and interrogators of Intelligence Ministry), and who have caused us all these sufferings, damage you, your religious teachings and our hope. Is there anyone who would answer to the cry for help of us, the oppressed?!" their letter pleaded.

Ahmadinejad and those hardline elements may have the upper hand for now. But the President may well face an internal challenge from pragmatic conservatives and factions of the clergy. Western hopes that this could usher in regime change would be misplaced. The challenge would come because one branch of the elite believes a competing section has mismanaged things badly and represents a threat to the survival of the revolution.

It is also worth remembering that neither Karroubi nor Mir Hossein Moussavi, both under virtual house arrest (Moussavi uses Facebook pages to disseminate his messages) ran on a ticket of radical reform, let alone dismantling the Islamic Republic. They have recently spoken of toning down the "green slogans" because they go beyond demands for a return to the values of Ayatollah Khomeini.

While I'm in Iran, the reformist former President Mohammed Khatami, who once enjoyed the popularity of a rock star is stopped from travelling abroad. The fear apparently, is he could become a Khomeini-style leader in exile capable of rallying the protest movement and destabilising the regime. But even the travel ban has not, as some supporters hoped, provoked him into an open confrontation with Ahmadinejad.

The secular-minded now look to the West and maybe to the destabilising power of economic isolation. But here too lies a trap. It gives the hardliners and the forces of violence a further reason to point and say, this is a Western plot and you are the agents of foreign powers – and thus a pretext for more repression.

And nobody thinks that those who have divided up the economic spoils, the vast sums of oil money that power gives access to, will give it up easily.

"Just now, they spread rumours against themselves," a source tells me. "They whisper of change, that something is happening soon. Perhaps Rafsanjani [the reformist cleric and former president] has a plan. He is orchestrating something that will challenge the hardliners."

Why would they brief against themselves, I ask. "Because it dampens down activity," she explains. "After all, If you're a life prisoner you dig a tunnel, but if you think you're going to be out in six months, you do nothing, you just wait."
Thursday
Apr292010

Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)

Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement for Iranian workers and teachers: a summary from Radio Zamaneh follows the video.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7--GcBUm6I[/youtube]

Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)
The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations


Mir Hossein Mousavi, the candidate in the June Presidential elections in Iran, announced once more that without “competitive elections”, release of all political prisoners, and freedom of all labour and national organizations, the political problems of Iran cannot be resolved.


The former Prime Minister went on to criticize the government for trying to resolve the country's problems through “handouts, empty promises and a series of advertising efforts”.

In a video message on occasion of International Worker’s Day and National Day of Teachers on May 1 and 2 respectively, the opposition leader said that Iran is suffering from a widespread political, economic, and social crisis which directly affects the lives of workers and teachers of the country.

He also maintained that the banning of newspapers, restrictions on the activities of labour and political groups, and continued arrest of activists are also influential in the fate of workers and teachers.

While thousands of people have been arrested in the past year for protests against the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad which the opposition claims was secured through ballot fraud, security forces have also banned and restricted activities of political and labour organizations.

Mousavi stressed: “It is vital that teachers and workers realize that the problems they face in their day to day life is a direct result of the general and current problems of the country.”

MirHosein Mousavi maintained that the Green Movement will proceed through “a return to the Constitution”. He added: “If there are sections of the Constitution that we feel lack relevancy, we can proceed in changing them through this very Constitution because the Constitution is not absolute.”

He focused the sections of the Constitution regarding people’s rights and maintained: “These forgotten principles will resolve the country’s problems one by one and improve the situation and position of workers and teachers at the same time.”
Thursday
Apr292010

The Latest from Iran (29 April): Preparations

2020 GMT: A Cleric's May Day Message. Grand Ayatollah Mousavi-Ardebili, meeting workers in advance of May Day, has said: “Today the problems are many and to solve them either no actions are taken or [the government] is incapable of taking any actions. The main issue is that solving these problems has been assigned to those who are not experts in these topics.”

Mousavi-Ardebili also touched on the charges of impropriety against the Government: “Our expectations from Parliament is to show more resistance against the unlawful actions [of the administration] because if, in the Parliament that is the house of the people and is where the laws are passed, these issues are ignored the situation would be worse in other places.”

NEW Iran Video and Summary: The Mousavi Statement for May Day/Teachers Day (29 April)
NEW Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader
Iran Document: English Text of Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (26 April)Iran: President Ahmadinejad’s Joke of the Day
The Latest from Iran (28 April): Making a Date


Mousavi-Ardebili added, “These days to solve the problems there is nothing left for us to do but praying, since when we give our inputs about an issue it is being ignored.”


1940 GMT: Political Prisoner News. Days before National Teachers Day and planned demonstrations, it is being reported that Alireza Hashemi, the Secretary General of the Teachers Organization, has been arrested.

1500 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. It's no longer fresh news that Italy's largest oil and gas company, Eni, is pulling out of Iran projects because of the prospect of tougher US sanctions on any firm dealing with Tehran (see Tuesday's updates). It is significant that the news is now being carried by Press TV.

1455 GMT: We've posted today's Mir Hossein Mousavi video, accompanied by a summary from Radio Zamaneh, as a separate entry.

1330 GMT: Writing About the Crisis. Our German Bureau reports that prominent Iranian poets and writers, including Simin Behbahani, Yadollah Royai, Esmail Khoi and Majid Naficy, have contributed to a new anthology,  "Protest of the Pen", published in Persian.

0945 GMT: Investigation or Cover-Up? Shadi Sadr offers her views on the enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses, leading to the death penalty for two police officers and a prisoner:
Gentlemen! Enough magic! We know and you know that the story cannot vanish with the execution of three individuals; indeed, no injury can be cured by more death and execution. The only thing that can satisfy us is knowing the truth about all victims of Kahrizak; the truth about the death of Ramin Pourandarjani, the assigned physician at the facility; and the description of what transpired from the perpetrators of the crimes, on national television.

0940 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has released a video statement for May Day and Iran's Teachers Day (2 May).

0935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has a summary of recent arrests of students and the poor health of some detainees.

0925 GMT: Economy Watch. Voice of America claims that, of an estimated 8200 Iranian companies in Dubai, 400 have closed because of sanctions.

0920 GMT: Clerical Matters. Rah-e-Sabz offers an analysis of the President's relationship with senior clerics in Qom, claiming that there were tensions in Ahmadinejad's first term and that only a few marja are offering greetings for his second term.

0915 GMT: Labour/Political Prisoner Watch. Homayoun Jaberi, a member of the Syndicate of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, has been sentenced by the Revolutionary Court to a year in prison, suspended for three years (effectively a probation).

0835 GMT: Mr Verde is back, offering an analysis of the worries of the Iranian "establishment" over the position of the Supreme Leader.

0820 GMT: Corruption Watch (cont.). Elyas Naderan, the conservative member of Parliament who has been leading the campaign against the Government, has criticised the President for not waging a fight against corruption and for appointing questionable officials (for example, at Iran's Oil Commission), and (at NIOC etc.) because of political motivations.

0745 GMT: Corruption Watch. The drumbeat of criticism from conservative members of Parliament continues. Yesterday we noted Ali Motahari challenging underhanded dealings and nepotism in the judiciary; today we find Ahmad Tavakoli launching an even wider attack:
We have reached a state where political corruption is rampant, with some even trying to influence decision makers through bribes. This kind of corruption is much worse than economic corruption, because in economic corruption individuals pursue base and materialistic interest, but in political corruption it is possible that legal decisions would be made to facilitate certain people’s corrupt pursuits and lead to the interference of some in distributing the enormous oil proceeds.”

Political corruption is the involvement of politicians in economic corruption, whereby they buy and sell laws and regulations. This is a much more important disease that some are afflicted with now by trying to infiltrate the Majlis using bribes, threats or promises. Unfortunately we don’t have comprehensive laws dealing with political corruption.

If this problem is not dealt with today, tomorrow would be very late.

Tavakoli then gets specific, targeting the First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of involvement in a major insurance fraud:"The judiciary is now facing a difficult test, because it has moved forward to investigate two important cases. One deals with an administration official and the other with a relative of a senior regime official. If the judiciary falls short of dealing with either case, in my opinion it would flunk the public opinion test and won’t have any standing left for combating corruption.”

0715 GMT: May Day. Rah-e-Sabz has now published the 15-demand declaration of the coalition of Iranian labour groups.

0645 GMT: So, after a flurry of statements from opposition figures (Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi) and groups (reformist parties, teachers, workers), we see if declaration will lead to action.

My interest is not in President Ahmadinejad's next move. Once more he is trying the foreign distraction, applying for and receiving a visa to attend the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty next Monday. That is matched by a roll-call of statements from Government officials and supportive members of Parliament that it is the US who is the nuclear culprit --- see, for example, the assertion of Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Alathat Washington should apologize for its failure to abide by its obligations under international law and the NPT.

No, time will be better spent looking for ripples, as in public gatherings of workers, teachers, and other activist groups for the week around May Day. And then the question is whether there will indeed be another wave for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

An opening teaser question: will Mousavi, who has repeatedly been kept away by Iranian authorities from mass demonstrations since last June, finally move from statement to open defiance by joining the marchers six weeks from now?
Thursday
Apr292010

Iran: The Establishment Frets Over the Supreme Leader

Mr Verde is back, taking a long look at manoeuvres within the Iranian "establishment":

In recent weeks some members of the establishment (Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati and Ahmad Khatami, the Islamic Coaltion Party's Habibollah Asgaroladi, and recently Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi) have changed tack. The clerics and politicians had been accusing the post-election protestors and their leaders, specifically Iran's reformists, of trying to overthrow the Islamic Republic in collusion with the West.

However, in the last few weeks the talk from the establishment figures is about attacks on the Supreme Leader. There is hardly any mention of “barandazi” (overthrow of regime) these days. Instead, the words are of conspiracies to limit the power of or to remove the Leader. The declarations that Khamenei is the best possible Supreme Leader give the game away --- why make such declarations if no one doubts him?


Recently Mesbah Yazdi, a strong backer of President Ahamdinejad, was the alleged source of some strange comments about the principle of “velayat-e-faqih” (clerical authority). He was quoted as saying that the “velayat-e-faqih” does not need to be the most prominent “marja” (source of emulation). He supported this with the assertation that, at the time of the 1979 Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was not the most prominent “marja”.

Although this might be seen as an indirect attack on Khomeini’s credibility --- it is well known that Khomeini and Mebah had serious disagreements --- the comment may be an attempt to argue in favor of Khamenei as “velayat-e-faqih”. Mesbah Yazdi has some religious credentials that Khamenei lacks, and his comments were reportedly to religious scholars at the Qom Seminary.

Mesbah Yazdi supposedly said that, although the Supreme Leader is chosen by God, if the people do not accept him, he should step aside. If true, this is a reversal of Mesbah Yazdi's previous statements that the “velayat-e-faqih” is chosen by God and the people’s opinion does not matter.

Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi are now referring to Khamenei’s statements with sarcasm and challenging him directly (although they are still not naming him). Earlier this year, Khamenei likened the regime to a rescue ship and said that some insiders are being left behind and the ship is sailing. Karroubi's response was to poke fun in his Nowruz message, likening the regime not to a ship but to a small dinghy full of unsavoury characters. Mousavi later added, "They say we have left the regime’s ship, well we have not left the ship of Islam", implying that the regime is no longer on the Islamic path.

So the question arises: are the recent changes in the speeches by the establishment figures an indication that Khamenei is facing problems from regime insiders and not just Mousavi, Karroubi, and other reformists over his credentials as Supreme Leader?