Middle East Inside Line: Jordan's Warning; Lieberman's Threat; Gaza's Unity; Turkey's Israel Tension

King Abdullah's Warning to Israel: In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Jordan’s King Abdullah warned on Tuesday that “Israel’s long-term future is in jeopardy unless there is permanent solution to the Middle East conflict”. He continued:

Over the Israeli-Lebanese border, if you spoke [to some Lebanese] today they feel there is going to be a war any second. [It] looks like there is an attempt by certain groups to promote a third intifada, which would be disastrous. Jerusalem as you are well aware is a tinderbox that could go off at any time, and then there is the overriding concern about military action between Israel and Iran.

So with all these things in the background, the status quo is not acceptable; what will happen is that we will continue to go around in circles until the conflict erupts, and there will be suffering by peoples because there will be a war.



The job of Jordan and the other countries in the international community is to keep common sense and keep hope alive until America can bring its full weight on the Israelis and the Palestinians to get their act together and move the process forward.

Lieberman's Threat over Ramallah's Plan: With no concrete steps towards the confidence-building measures demanded by the Netanyahu government, the Palestinian Authority’s chief negotiator Saeb Erekat told Voice of Palestine radio on Tuesday that Washington has reached a dead end in its attempts to revive Middle East peace talks. Erekat pointed to Israel’s failure to give guarantees, demanded by the US, that it not issue any more tenders to build on land where the Palestinians aim to establish a state, including East Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, referring to Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad’s statement that there would be a Palestinian state by 2011, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman warned the PA against plans to declare independence unilaterally, saying such a move could prompt Israel to annex parts of the West Bank and annul past peace agreements.

The Gaza Factions Meet: The four Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip --- Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular and Democratic Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine --- met on Sunday, as a senior Egyptian official said that Cairo is concerned that the recent escalation of tensions on the Gaza border could lead to another Israeli invasion. On the same day, all factions said that they will cease firing Qassam rockets at Israel.

Israel-Turkey War of Words Continues: At a ceremony to mark the opening of an Arab-language television and radio company,  Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey will come to the defense of Muslims around the world:

We cannot be indifferent to the problems of the Islamic world of Jerusalem.

Our task is the integration with the Western world but we did not turn our back to the East. Arabs and Turks are brothers and we share the same values.

We cannot watch the murder of children in Gaza with indifference. We worry about the Gaza children but our hearts are also for the children of Haiti and Chile.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry’s response was immediate.  A statement issued in West Jerusalem said:

Israel is not interested in confrontation with any country, including Turkey. The impression that is being created is that the Turkish prime minister is seeking to integrate with the Muslim world at Israel's expense.

We suggest he find a more creative way, and to try to integrate with both the Muslim and Western worlds without turning into an extremist leader in the style of Hugo Chavez.

The Israelis also advised Erdogan to “be equally concerned for the killing of innocent civilians in Pakistan and Iraq at the hands of terrorist groups.”

Ankara's Search for "Balance of Power": In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro, Erdogan repeatedly called Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his “dear friend”, as he sent two messages to two different fronts. On the one hand, Erdogan reminded his “dear friend” that there should be no arms race in the region. On the other hand, he criticized countries pushing for another round of sanctions in the United Nations Security Council:

We consider that this question should be resolved diplomatically. Sure, sanctions are an issue at the moment, but I don't think that the ones being discussed can bring results.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Welcoming a 3rd Intifada?

Is a Third Intifada On Way?: Haaretz's Zvi Bar'el considers the possibility of a third Intifada. He states that there is no one on the "other" side to take reins of such an uprising, since the Palestinian Authority is looking forward to "progress" from the Obama Administration and Hamas is locked inside the Gaza Strip, yet he says that an uprising cannot be predicted in advance and may surprise everyone.

Middle East Inside Line: Washington Reverses on Settlements?; US & Ahmadinejad on Gaza

Bar'el then makes a critical point, "An outbreak of violence will certainly do wonders for Israeli interests". He continues:

There's nothing like a murderous terror attack to give Israel back its image of being the victim; it would give us an excellent excuse to stop the fake freeze on settlement construction and show Barack Obama who the real culprit is. Enough with playing games, bring it on. Save us with an intifada.

Is the international community ready for those Israeli pretexts to shelve any talks or negotiations with Palestinians? If Israeli's politicians believe so, is their optimal course to sustain tension with Palestinian "radicals"?

Meanwhile, that tension played out in a statement by Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal that all options against Israel remain open, including war: "We will do everything to obtain the rights stolen from us, including confrontation with the enemy."

Israel's Army Radio reports that Hamas also called for Palestinian Authority President Salam Fayyad to be put on trial for comments  in an interview with Haaretzr. Fayyad had stated that, by 2011, there would be a Palestinian state by which refugees would be absorbed. Hamas officials responded:

Fayyad is a person without legitimacy, who has stolen control in the West Bank and whose hands are contaminated with the suffering of thousands of martyrs in the West Bank.

And on another front,  a report submitted to French President Nicholas Sarkozy by his two top diplomats supposedly gives no chance to renewed peace talks between Israel and Syria.

Patrice Paoli, director of the North Africa and Middle East desk at the French Foreign Ministry, and Nicolas Gallas, a special adviser to Sarkozy on Middle East affairs, had been in Israel and talked to top officials. Their report concludes that Israel is not ready to fully withdraw from the Golan Heights, while Syria is not prepared to cut ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

Middle East Inside Line: Washington Reverses on Settlements?; US & Ahmadinejad on Gaza

Washington Calms Down US Jewish Community, Reverses Position on Settlements?: On Friday, the top National Security Council official for the Middle East, Dan Shapiro issued a message to U.S. Jewish community leaders: Barack Obama is a friend of Israel and there is no disagreement between Israel and the US.

Shapiro called recent tension a result of "bad timing" and said that the US did not intend to insist that Israel halt settlement construction in East Jerusalem. He said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent meeting with Obama in Washington was open and honest, during which they reached agreements on the building in East Jerusalem, negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, and Iran's nuclear program.

MENA House: Arab League Weakness; Egypt Cultural Corner; Fun Football Facts
Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel’s Hebron Show

Response to Gaza Tension: The US State Department released a statement Friday night that there is no “military solution” to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Spokesman P.J. Crowley said:

The Israelis have a right to self-defense. At the same, as we've said many times, we don't ultimately think there is a military solution to this.

Our message remains to the Israelis and Palestinians that we need to get the proximity talks going, focus on the substance, move to direct negotiations and ultimately arrive at a settlement that ends the conflict once and for all.

We are always concerned that steps taken by either side, legitimate or otherwise, can be misconstrued, can be twisted and end up causing turbulence that can be an impediment to progress.

Iran's Ahmadinejad Warns Israel: On Saturday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Israel and world leaders that attacks on Gaza would cost "too much":

One more time I warn the leaders of arrogant powers and the supporters of Zionist regime to not make a new mistake in the Middle East -- attacking Gaza will cost you too much.

MENA House: Arab League Weakness; Egypt Cultural Corner; Fun Football Facts

Christina Baghdady is in the MENA House:

Arab League Extraordinaire: Yet again, the Arab leaders have failed to agree. The question on this occasion is, "What have they failed to agree on?"

Well, it's whether the Palestinians should resume their peace talks with Israel. The hot-blooded Arab League has once again lived up to its reputation of talking too much, flexing their muscles against superpowers, but not achieving very much.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

The 22nd Arab summit was held in the Libyan city of Sirte on 27-28 March. Moussa Kossa, Secretary to Libya’s People’s Committee of Foreign Liaison and International Coorporation, urged Arab states in his opening statement to "take action to lift the siege imposed on the Palestinian people and to salvage Jerusalem”, in a reference to ongoing efforts by Israel to "Judaize" the city.



Some analysts, however, downplayed the Arab threat to end support of negotiations with Israel. “The Arab leaders might introduce rhetorical changes in their resolutions, but the substance will remain the same,” said Tarek Fahmy, an expert in regional affairs at the Cairo-based Middle East Research Institute. He added that the Arab "moderate" camp --- which includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority --- does not want to jeopardize what it sees as a readiness on the part of US President Barack Obama to exert pressure on the Cabinet of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It will be interesting to see how this may play out regarding the expansion of Israeli settlements and any further pressure on Israel.

On that note, today Egypt and Israel commemorated the 31st anniversary of the signing of the 1979 Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty, which came on the heels of the 1978 Camp David Accords. In 1994, Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel.

Cultural Moment: This week is the anniversary of the death of the cultural icon of the Middle East and North Africa; Abdel Halim Hafez, otherwise known as Al-Andaleeb. If you ever consider a holiday to Egypt and you reach for local tips and advice, there will always be information in the music section on Al Andaleeb. He was born on 21 June 1929 and completed 15 movies and more than 206 songs before he died in 1977. His first musical hit came in 1951 when he stepped in for singer Kareem Mahmoud on Egyptian National Radio. To this day his music and films live on.

Andaleeb’s music has gone beyond borders. The background music for the Chemical Brothers, "Galvanize" is originally from Abdel Halim’s song "Zay il Hawa" (Like the Air) and Jay-Z’s song "Big Pimpin’" draws from "Khosara".

Did You Know? King Farouk I (the father of the last King of Egypt, King Farouk II) had his own football team. Founded in 1911 as "Kasr il Nil" (The Palace of the Nile), the team was renamed in 1940 to, "Farouk Al-Awal" after Farouk I. Following the Revolution in 1952, the name was changed to "Zamalek" after the area where the club is located.

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel's Hebron Show

Gazan-Israeli Tension Continues: The exchange of rockets between Gaza and Israel continues. In response to a Palestinian short-range rocket fired across the border on Thursday, Israel Air Force launched seven rockets on Friday, killing no one but wounding two children and destroying two caravans, a cheese factory, and a metal foundry. An Israel Defense Forces spokesman confirmed the attacks, saying they had targeted two weapons-manufacturing plants and two arms caches.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

On Thursday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on the international community to intervene to avoid escalation.

Militants in the strip responded to Friday's Israeli attack by firing a Qassam rocket into southern Israel.


Palestinian State around 2011? In an exclusive interview with Haaretz, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad stated that "the birth of a Palestinian state will be celebrated as a day of joy by the entire community of nations":

The time for this baby to be born will come and we estimate it will come around 2011. That is our vision, and a reflection of our will to exercise our right to live in freedom and dignity in the country [where] we are born, alongside the State of Israel in complete harmony.

If for one reason or another, by August 2011 [the plan] will have failed... I believe we will have amassed such credit, in form of positive facts on the ground, that the reality is bound to force itself on the political process to produce the outcome.

It is the right of an oppressed nation to say 'enough.' No one should be expected to stand for injustice, not least the Palestinians, who have endured long decades of occupation. Is it not what Gandhi stood for, what Martin Luther King stood for?

Thousands of Israelis Gather in West Bank: On Thursday, thousands came to the Cave of the Patriarchs in the West Bank city of Hebron to celebrate its addition to Israel's list of national heritage sites. Member of Knesset Ayoob Kara (Likud) said that "not even Hussein Obama will remove us from Hebron":

The masses that have come here, including the 40 members of the Land of Israel caucus, are a guarantee and proof that no one will move us from the Cave of the Patriarchs, not even Hussein Obama.

The Prime minister needs to say 'no' to Barack Hussein Obama, and 'yes' to the people of Israel, who have come here in their multitudes today. He needs to grant permits to start building in settlements and in all of Israel.