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Entries in Iran (79)

Monday
Apr262010

Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"

Radio Zamaneh adds more English translations of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to war veterans on Sunday. The themes, put forth in a series of Mousavi declarations over the last week, are now well-established:

1. The Government is not the defender of Islam and the Islamic Republic.

“Islam does not beat people up; it does not arrest people; it does not slander people; it does not lock people up and create restrictions.”

The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View


2. The Iranian opposition is the defender of Islam and the Islamic Republic.

“We have not left the vessel of Islam. And as Muslims, we want to act in ways that will not disappoint our younger generation.”

3. Use of all possible media by as many people as possible -- "We Are the Media" --- is necessary to get out points 1 and 2.

"We must update our methods. Now that we do not have newspapers, we must find new ways. While we still pursue the possibility of newspapers, we must persist in informing the public through virtual media, gatherings, the family and the word of mouth.”

4. This message should address all of Iran's people --- villagers, farmers, tradespeople, workers and teachers --- and all their concerns.

“We must tell them that this kind of life [in Iran today] is below their dignity.”
Sunday
Apr252010

The Latest from Iran (25 April): Build-Up

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that detainees in the women’s ward of Evin Prison staged a sit-in and asked the head of the ward to respect the Regulations Law which requires the separation of prisoners.

According to RAHANA, the head of the ward threatened the prisoners and claimed she needs prosecutor’s orders before separating the inmates. The political prisoners have stated that they will continue their sit-in until they achieve their goal.

NEW Iran Special: Tehran, Defender of Women’s Rights (P.S. Don’t Mention Boobquake
NEW Iran: The Green Movement and the Labour Movement (Assadi)
NEW Iran: Hyping the Threat from Tehran (Walt)
Iran: The List of 101 Journalists Who Have Been Jailed
Iran Document: Mousavi on the Green Movement’s Strategy and Goals (22 April)
The Latest from Iran (24 April): Speaking of Rights


1555 GMT:Corruption Watch. Reihaneh Mazaheri, writing for Tehran Bureau, sets out a detailed summary of the corruption allegations against the Ahmadinejad Government.


1550 GMT: Morality Will Be Observed. Tehran Police Chief Ahmad Reza Radan has assured that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance's moral police will soon restart controls for better security.

1535 GMT: Media Corner. Journalist Zaynab Kazemkhah, arrested on 7 February, was fired by Iranian Students News Agency upon her release from Evin Prison. Her boss allegedly told her that she was "a traitor to the country".

1525 GMT: Mousavi Speaks Again. No doubt about it: both Mehdi Karroubi (see 0600 GMT) and Mir Hossein Mousavi are making a renewed push against the Government. Mousavi told a group of war veterans today, "The only way for Iran to get out of the crisis would be for you (the rulers) to change your approach. May God end the crisis in favor of the nation."

Mousavi again declared that the Government is working against the values of the Islamic Republic, "Islam would not beat anyone, would not take anyone into incarceration ... and would not keep anyone in prison....We can not accept closure of newspapers and jailing those who talk of freedom and people's right. This is against Islam."

The Presidential candidate assured the audience that the opposition has not been vanquished despite the Government crackdown on dissent, "Do not think that the reform movement does not exist anymore. Such measures can not block the reform path."

1520 GMT: Rumour of Day (2). Rah-e-Sabz claims that staged television confessions of reformist prisoners are planned for the eve of the anniversary of the election, 12 June.

1310 GMT: Culture and Political Prisoners. Ten prominent Iranian writers and poets, including Simin Behbahani, Ali Ashraf Darvishian, Shams Langroodi, and Moniro Ravanipour, have published an open letter demanding the release of journalist Masoud Bastani and other political prisoners.

1230 GMT: Boobquake Watch. Protecting Iran from earthquakes by pursuing immorality, Tehran police have reportedly banned tanning salons.

1210 GMT: Another Larijani Warning. Speaker of ParliamentAli Larijani has told President Ahmadinejad that the Majlis' laws should be implemented. The Khabar Online article supplements the warning has lots of detail on the government's alleged mismanagement, especially missing reports on the budget and on state broadcaster IRIB.

1205 GMT: Rumour of Day. The Sunday Telegraph of London claims, "Iran has struck a secret deal with Zimbabwe to mine its untapped uranium reserves in a move to secure raw material for its steadily expanding nuclear programme."

It was this agreement that underlay President Ahmadinejad's visit to Harare this week.

Caution is needed here: the Sunday Telegraph has been known to peddle exclusives based on suspect sources and/or speculation. This story rests on a "government source" and, rather unusually, "a senior official in the Iranian embassy" in Zimbabwe.

1200 GMT: All is Well Update. Minister of Interior Mustafa Mohammad Najar has declared, ''During nine months' efforts (since the 12 June Presidential election), police forces across the country slapped the enemy's conspiracy."
He said, ''Due to proper instruction, police forces used proper contact with people and the forces used less amount of shooting (than in the past).''

1035 GMT: Nuclear Breakthrough? Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has met the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, to discuss the uranium swap proposal. Mottaki told Iranian state television that he expected the discussions to be "decisive and detailed".

1030 GMT: We have posted a very special analysis linking Iran's suddenly-announced candidacy for the International Commission for Protection of Women’s Rights to the "Boobquake" episode.

(Just a thought, however. The Supreme Leader has his own Facebook page and has recently pronounced on Iran's defense of women's rights, so shouldn't he be informed of the Boobquake movement?)

0740 GMT: We have posted two features: an analysis of the Green Movement and labour movement by Jamshid Assadi and an assessment of the international "threat" from Iran by Stephen Walt.

0735 GMT: The Parliament Front. Another intervention by the Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani in the contest with the Ahmadinejad Government: he has criticized administration officials who have reacted angrily to reports released by the Supreme Audit Court (SAC).

The Supreme Audit Court, overseen by Parliament, is mandated to control the financial operations and activities of all ministries, institutions, state companies, and other organizations which receive Government funding.

0650 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Milad Fadayi has been sentenced to a year in prison for “propaganda against the system”. Fadayi was detained on 2 December in his home by plainclothes agents.

Mohammad Hossein Agassi, the lawyer for Amir Reza Arefi, has said that Arefi's death sentence for "mohareb" (war against God) has been reduced to a 15-year prison term. Arefi was condemned to death in February.

However, RAHANA reports that Habibollah Golparipour has been sentenced to death by a Revolutionary Court in Iranian Kurdistan.



0600 GMT: We are watching the signs that the opposition, inside and outside Iran, is seeking a renewed challenge leading up to the anniversary of the Presidential election. According to his website, Mehdi Karroubi has told the German magazine Der Spiegel, "Although tranquillity has been restored, society is awaiting a spark....People should know that we will continue the campaign. The campaign is not against the [Islamic] republic. On the contrary, it is aimed at observing the constitution in which freedom of conscience and democracy has been clarified."

Some other bits and pieces to start the day....

Clerical Downgrade

A second cleric in Qom has been stripped of his status by a court. Hojatoleslam Mir Ahmadi was sentenced to forced exile from the city for ten years and banned from clerical activities.

Ahmadi was arrested by security forces days after a memorial service in February for the 40th day of the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Ahmadi had debated a student who criticised Montazeri and post-election turmoil in the country. The next day, he was arrested and later released.

Seyed Ahmad Reza Ahmadpour, who recently began a one-year prison sentence, also faces a ban on wearing the traditional clerical robe.

No Foreign Talk, Please

The Islamic Republic News Agency claims that the Deputy Minister for Cinema Affairs has directed that no foreign words be used in Iranian movie titles. According to the agency, a letter to officials declared, “Based on an approval by the cabinet to ban foreign words in banners, advertisements, etc…from now on, Iranian movies are not permitted to use foreign words in titles. This ban applies to films currently in production as well.”

International Rumour of Day

Ayoub Kara, Israel's deputy minister for development in the Negev and Galilee, has told a public meeting that an academic with ties to Iran's nuclear programme recently asked for asylum in Israel after it helped him to defect.

"It is too soon to provide further details," Kara said, adding only that the unidentified academic was "now in a friendly country."

The claim follows the resettlement of Iranian physicist Shahram Amiri in the US in March.
Sunday
Apr252010

Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter

Today is journalist Emaduddin Baghi's 48th birthday. He will spend it in Evin Prison, having been detained for almost four months. Specific charges have not been announced, but his family have been told that Baghi is considered a criminal because, amongst other misdeeds, of an interview with the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and a book written 21 years ago.

Last Thursday Baghi's family visited him. They reported that "he is still extremely strong but his physical situation is painful because his backache, his respiratory problems, and his heart attacks are problematic for him".

The following is the birthday letter for Baghi from his eldest daughter, Maryam, passed to EA from a valued source. "Mohammad" is her husband:

The Latest from Iran (25 April): Build-Up


My dearest father, salaam.

Greetings to your sublime spirit, greetings to your dignified and love-filled existence, greetings to your strong morale, and greetings to your ailing body. My heart beats strongly for your health, of which you became deprived in a difficult and unsuitable cell in your last period of incarceration.


The Iranian year 1388 ended while you were not with us and today is the 4th day of the second month of spring, 118 days after your arrest. Until the turning of the year we were so hopeful the doorbell would ring and you would enter. But we heard later that you were a guest at the hospital....

They had accepted your bail and had said that you would come. The Wednesday night before New Year we stared at the prison door until midnight and we were hoping that at the moment of the year turning we would be praying together….But they didn’t let us. It was the same for Mohammad. You stood with us until the middle of the night in front of Evin Prison, and he was not released that night either.

But we continue to rely on the Creator who is aware of all hidden secrets. On the first night of the New Year, when after three weeks we heard your voice, although briefly, on the phone you recited this Hafez couplet: Don’t lose hope as you are not aware of the invisible/Behind curtains there are hidden games, don’t grieve.

This is the fifth spring that for us there is a feel of prison and you are detained. Dear father, I am sorry that because of unwanted self-censorship, I am forced to leave some of the stories of the days without you for another time. Perhaps it will have to wait until you come and I can recite in your ears what has happened and what they have done to us.

This is the third time that imprisonment --– the approach used in undeveloped and Third World countries in order to limit thinkers and as a punishment for speaking –-- has become your share. It was less than a year after your last release that the 12 June elections occurred and our house was emptied from Mohammad’s presence. Not much had passed from his release that the demise of that great  Faqih (the late Ayatollah Montazeri) left cold sweat on our foreheads and it was the seventh day after the demise of that departed dear and on the occasion of Hussein’s Ashura [27 December] that they took you in black mourning shirt from our home.

In the past years that you were imprisoned, I wrote you repeatedly about my grievances about the world and my heavy-heartedness. In those days our fatigue and pain was less understood, and it was not like these days when prison has become more encompassing. We had learned to keep our loneliness inside.I tried to not let mother, sister and others know the great sadness that had formed a home inside my heart, taking its toll.

I thought Mohammad should not be bothered so his pen could be free. They thought the same as well. Even Mina who was younger than everyone and was in elementary school had learned to cover well. Paper and pen was my friend and companion. But during the days Mohammad was not with us, I abandoned covering up in front of you more than anyone else. And you as always kindly asked me to remain hopeful and calm. But in the days you were not with us I again pour my heart out with pen and pencil more than anything else.

On the fortieth day, sixtieth day, seventieth day, eightieth day….I have kept them all. Although I am tired of writing, tired of penning letters that all can read, whether they are letters that because of thousand reasons are archived in my memory or unanswered letters to the case judge as well as the ultimate judge or poems registered in my heart because of separation. But the blood in my veins, keeping faith in your compassionate thoughts, cries for resistance. I have written to God as well and know he is the only one who hears me and I calm down only when I remember his verses. “I know what you know not.” (The Baghare: 30); “It is possible that you dislike a thing which is good for you.” (The Baghare: 216). And following you who read the patience verse – “Seek ((Allah)'s help with patient perseverance and prayer” (The Baghare: 45) –-- we patiently wait and fatigue is not an obstacle to perseverance, since you were always for me and us a beacon of that perseverance.

What strange days Fridays have become. Anticipation is grafted with anticipation: “Moments of Descent”. It is the day of anxiety at sunset. The end of two months of incarceration, the day that we expected the end of this stage of imprisonment for the crime of expression of ideas, was a Friday. The fortieth day that the prison bars had surrounded you was also a Friday; the fortieth of the martyr of freedom in the Karbala of resistance and perseverance and fortieth day of being away from you.

Father, what convergences have these days. When they took away Mohammad in front my eyes at midnight on 30th of Khordad, it was a Friday. And when God released him it was a Friday morning, the eight day of the eight month of year 1388, on the birthday of the eighth Imam. The last day of 1388 was again a Friday and this time with the promise they had given us about your release we were full of hope. I don’t know when will be our last Friday of anticipation leading to anticipation.

This is the fate of our many years: anxiety, inspection, court, interrogation, and imprisonment. Before, you had experienced 1500 days of prison. This means you were absent during Mina’s childhood, adolescence of Monireh and my youth and even at my marriage. Then years ago Mohammad, who was sent to prison after you, was released after a short while. We had not yet exchanged vows, and you were sentenced to several years of prison. With the promise that you could attend our wedding, we were set to exchange vows. The ceremony began while we were still waiting for you. They had said you had to come with prison clothes with tied hands and guards.

You sent a telephone message through a cellmate: "Tell my wife Fatemeh that I will celebrate the wedding of my daughter Maryam here. I know they don’t want me to be present in their happiness this way.” I cried inside throughout the ceremony and when in the last moments, through the efforts of the then Majlis Speaker and others, they brought you the cries inside of me turned into wailing.

During the ninth government [of 2005-2009] you again tasted prison which was more difficult than before and this year –-- this cursed year –-- it was first Mohammad who was sent to prison and then again you. The tall wall of the narrow cells of Ward 240 again became your host and now they are the only image in front of your eyes for days. I wish I could become a guest in your small cell, cover your sturdy shoulders with kisses, and tell you Happy New Year, Father, and that as always I am proud of you and know that your great spirit is not limited by this small cell, a spirit full of honesty, sincerity, and candour.

Although they had not allowed you even a Quran for 50 days, I know that you recited the verses and God’s light shines over you in the cell in which you are closer to Him. There is nothing in that cell but spirituality. Your sin is that you demand tolerance and patience, peace and friendship, respect for human generosity, the right to life and not imprisoning even opponents. You insist that the standard and criteria for good and bad is conduct; the same God considers a measure and tests and distinguishes humans on that basis. “Save those who believe and do righteous good deeds (Tin: 6 – Inshighagh: 25)

These days perhaps away from our eyes watching, it is perhaps easier for you to mourn your teacher’s departure [referring to Grand Ayatollah Montazeri]. You are not here to witness things that always pained you. I can guess if you were here the angst you would feel for each execution order. Whenever a noose was someone’s fate, even if he was guilty, you would make every effort to replace it with another punishment. If the decision was based on retribution, you would try until the last minute before execution to gain the acceptance of the victim’s family, and if execution was awaiting a guilty person, you would do everything from writing letters to authorities to writing articles.

Your book The Right to Life was written in two volumes but ended like many of your other books, which never received a publication permit or were banned, never reaching readers in Iran although they reached readers in Lebanon and Egypt. How wonderful it would be if they could be read in Iran. How much you wanted the culture of peace and toleration to be institutionalized in Iran.

But what happened? Why is the path to freedom, serenity and peace so rocky, dark and narrow? Don’t be saddened, father. This shall pass too….

Now in this cell perhaps you witness the sorrow of others less. I know that other people’s sorrow made you even more hurt. These days you were not here to comfort us for the banning of newspapers. The number of banned newspapers is so high that we have lost count and this lack of employment apparently is supposed to longer than other times.

Father, if in the past the sound of only few seekers of freedom and rights was heard, now the voices have increased. With the imprisonment of one voice, thousands of voices of freedom rise from everywhere. One of your ward mates was recently freed. He was separated from you by a couple of cells and said that he could hear your voice occasionally. A guard told you not to raise your voice and you said: “We are imprisoned; our voices are not.” Your voice from inside the high cement walls of Evin Prison traverses all of Tehran’s streets and now many other voices accompany yours. Your voice is the beacon of freedom and Justice. Then why do they consider you an enemy?

Now the number of people considered enemy is increasing day by day. Many members of families of martyrs (shahid), people who still have sorrow in their hearts, are unbelievably accused of opposing the ideals of the revolution when in fact they are trying to preserve them. The families of Shahid Behehsti, Shahid Rajai, even Shahid Motahhari, Shahid Qadusi, Shahid Bakeri, Shahid Hemmat, the family of Imam, and many revolutionaries are judged this way.

I do not know what they imagine that at times they accuse you and them of cooperating with outsiders in order to harm a revolution that you yourselves created or they call you a hypocrite. What do they mean? I haven’t seen any discord between pen and heart, inside and outside, between thoughts and expression, words and your behaviour. I do not know why expressions are becoming fearless, accusations sharp and baseless and for threatening and limiting critics. Is it not that the reformists only want reform and are loyal to the revolutionary ideals that are the result of hundred years of struggle to get rid of monarchy and dictatorship? Wasn’t freedom along with republicanism and Islam the main slogans of the Iranian Revolution? Didn’t you shout the slogans of independence, freedom, and Islamic Republic in the despot-ridden streets?

When many of your friends were in prison and Mohammad was there too, you could not sit still. It was as though, if you could not find a solution,you had to be in fetters too. Of course even when you were free, it was as though you were in prison. Neither was there the possibility of work nor the possibility of any activities. More than 20 times they had stopped your work and prevented publications of books and newspapers as well as your teaching and research. In the past year locks were placed on the doors of the Association for Defending the Rights of Prisoners, even though you had stepped aside from its leadership, so that your presence would not lead to the prevention of the work of that association. You were left in the corner of the house with an old computer and a pen from which blood was dripping.

They could not even tolerate this. You were a critic and not an enemy, but they harassed you out of enmity every once in a while. Still you taught us, who are stunned and in awe, the slogan of long live my opponent and gave us hope for peace and serenity. Is it not that God swears to olive, that expression of peace and friendship, and to the hometown of the honest one Mecca?

But Father, your ideal city has become a dream in this country. And that friend of yours Qeysar, who is not longer with us, is no longer with us to write long poems in these bitter times. He said it rightly that “poets created an ideal city that they did not even dream in their dreams”. I have only read about the ideal city in poems and stories but this does not mean that your words should be in sheath because we have been created to seek the truth, express reality, try to rid the world of oppression and cruelty, and push society towards happiness. If this is not the case, then what is the difference between us and four-legged animals?

In the past 118 days I have seen you three times for a short period. Minutes became important and I wish those twenty minutes could be tied to your freedom. Father I have not become used to hearing your dignified voice on the phone. I have not become used to meeting in rooms that in previous years I had also walked in, each time praying to be the last time. I have not become used to your embrace that had to be divided in a short period of time among my sisters, my mother, and I; to Mina’s hands that at the time of saying goodbye would resist loosening their embrace around your neck; to Monireh’s eyes which would follow you until the last second  before the door closed. I have not gotten used to any of this.

Everyone says that our experience with your imprisonments has made everything normal for us but it has never become normal; only our previous injury has become deeper and our wound has become older and now we are more afflicted than ever.

How can I become used to my mother’s face, full of tolerance and patience, giving us an artificial smile? No, Father, I have not become used to the anxiety and heartsickness of my sisters hidden behind the mask of being carefree. I have not even become used to seeing the people who everyday run in the streets like machines in search of a livelihood to fill the empty stomach of their children; children who are being raised with slogans of justice and getting rid of poverty and discrimination and whose parents say nothing because they are afraid of the consequences for themselves and the same children..

Perhaps this is your legacy that has remained everlasting in me since your big sin is that you do not become used to seeing the sorrow of others and abnormal behaviour. I also do not become used to the imprisonment of you and others like you. Every second I do not forget that, behind the tall walls of a prison in the most northwest part of the city and in other prisons, there are people whose only sin is criticism for the sake of reform, the same approach taught to us by prophets and Imams. I say to you, dear Father, who with tied wings but a heart full of faith and steadfast thoughts is sitting in the cage of those who cannot accept criticism, that you are the one truly free of fetters.

Although I wish freedom for you and others, I know that wherever you are Emad’s God is with you. Whenever that great faqih [Montazeri], for whose interview you are now in prison, would see you he would recite from the Joshan Kabir prayer “Emad, who does not have support”. Yes, it is only He who is support for someone who has nothing to rely upon, and I leave that to you whose name is a combination of divine names to the support for existence.

Still every bell that rings, our heart drops, thinking that it might be you. I hope that the curse in the past year stays there and this spring becomes the spring of your freedom from prison. We await you.

In the past when you were in prison one of your friends, Mojtaba Kashani, wrote a poem for you. These days I recite it to myself:

Whoever has Messiah on his essence,
His place is in the midst of a cage.

Wherever there is good-natured chick,
It is afflicted, enslaved and imprisoned.

The fish’s charming dance
Makes the tank its own.

Whoever has goodness in his destiny,
There are days he will hurt
With black voice and crow’s face,
Will fly free to the garden’s middle.

Every canary that crows
Will take himself out of the cage.

As soon as black cloth is worn,
Safe haven is given in the garden

Either crow and freedom
Or canary and being cage-ridden:
Still being in the constriction of the cage
Is better than being bad and ugly in essence.

Being in prison with angel’s luster
Is better than being a raven in a feast.
Sunday
Apr252010

Iran: The Green Movement and the Labour Movement (Assadi)

An interview by Gozaar journalist Mohammad Tavahori in Paris with Professor Jamshid Assadi, an analyst of political economy and member of the opposition group United Republicans of Iran:

Tahavori: In assessing the breadth and depth of the Green movement over the past ten months, many political analysts and observers have pointed to the lackluster role of the labor movement. Mir Hussein Mousavi, in a recent meeting with members of the Sazman-e Mojahedin-e Enqelab-e Eslami (Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution), stressed the need for the Green Movement to band together with the labor movement and to voice the demands of workers, teachers and other social classes. In your view, why has the labor movement failed to have a strong presence in the Green Movement so far?

Iran: A View from the Labour Front (Rahnema)


Assadi: That depends on how you define the Green Movement. If we look at it as a civil-social movement that is rooted in the public’s soaring, long-rooted discontent, but which flared up in a violent reaction to the blatant rigging of the June 12, 2009 elections and spread from there, then we’d conclude that the Green Movement is at core a wide-ranging movement encompassing diverse social groups, such as youth, women, workers, teachers, journalists, Muslims, atheists–in other words, a majority of society’s citizens.



With this definition in mind, the labor movement has never been excluded or disjointed from the Green Movement. There’s no need to wait for workers to be invited to “join” the Greens; the labor movement has always been an active component of the Green Movement.

But allow me to pose a question on the apparent lack of presence of workers among the Greens: Has Mr. Mousavi presented any strategy and roadmap going forward for his supporters whom he believes constitute the main active body of the movement, for him to voice concern about the absence of the labor class? In my view, the labor movement’s inclusion in the Green Movement is less a cause for concern than the performance of prominent Green figures in roles of leadership and providing guidance for the road ahead.

Tahavori: The question, though, is why the role and presence of workers is not visible [in the Green Movement] despite their long record [of social activism]?

Assadi: How is it not visible? Have workers at Haft Tapeh sugar factory and members of the Vahed Bus Company Union not been active in recent years? Has Mansour Osanlou, the president of Vahed Bus Company Union’s executive committee and one of Iran’s most prominent trade activists, ceased his resistance for a single moment in the past few years?

Let me offer some examples of labor movement activities during Esfand 1388-Farvardin 1389 [February-March 2010]. In this period, workers at Simin and Milad factories (subsidiaries of Qaemreza Industries) in Isfahan, the Telecommunications Industries (ITI) in Shiraz, Qaemshahr Textiles in Mazandaran, Alborz China in Qazvin, as well as workers in several other cities convened and staged demonstrations protesting unpaid wages in front of the Governor’s office and other official institutes in their districts.

Also bear in mind that the persecution of trade activists has continued during this period --- Homayoun Jaberi and Qolamreza Khani, two Tehran Bus Company Union members, are two examples. The elected representative of Kian Tires has also refused to sign a letter of agreement with the Ministry of Labor. These are cases that have occurred in the last 40 days --- I can cite more!

Tahavori: Actually, that’s just the question: with such a shining record, why does the labor movement play such a weak role in the Green Movement?

Assadi: The point is that when the movement takes on a social and civil form, the primary, national slogans replace the demands of specific groups, including trade unions. This is not a bad thing.

Like the student, women’s, and teachers’ movements, the labor movement has embraced the common demands and slogans of the past ten months. Given the conditions of this struggle, instead of articulating group-specific demands, workers have also voiced these public demands. This is why we don’t hear worker-related slogans chanted during Green protests.

Do young people --- who comprise the large part of this movement --- voice slogans for student demands? Do women, who have been frontrunners in popular movements in the past 30 years, chant slogans for gender equality? These groups founded the Green Movement, without raising their group-specific demands at this point in time. This is a plus, not a minus --- that the labor movement not focus on exclusive demands and instead, alongside other social movements, champion the mantra of seeking freedom for all Iranians.

Of course, the process of prioritizing demands and slogans is not limited to the Greens in Iran. All over the world, when a social movement emerges and takes shape, the common denominator of demands --- namely: freedom, justice, democracy, human rights --- become pivotal. In Poland, labor unionists were the pillar of the struggle, but they did not elevate their trade demands above the public’s common demands. Indeed, the strength of social movements lies in the fact that group demands give way to core national demands.

Tahavori: I don’t think anyone is saying workers are not a part of the Green Movement. A look at the list of "Green martyrs" reveals the names of workers among them. But looking at the picture from another angle, we see that workers could have played a stronger role. For instance, consider that the neighborhoods where “Allah-u Akbar” (God is great) was chanted at night, such as Shahrak Qarb and Ekbatan, were actually not working-class districts. Besides, the main question is: how can the Green Movement foster stronger ties with social classes across the board -- including the labor class?

Assadi: To answer your question, allow me to note two things. First, the Green Movement, like mass movements everywhere, because it is a social and civil movement, has not chosen group-specific demands as the banner for its struggle. As I mentioned, I believe this is a strength of the movement, not a weakness.

Now to the second point: before inviting workers to join in the movement, Mr. Mousavi must clarify what way forward he is proposing. Let’s imagine no worker so far has been involved in the Green Movement: on what account must they heed Mr. Musavi’s call to join the Greens? What strategy has Mr. Musavi put forth on the kind of presence the labor movement should display within the Green Movement? What strategies has he proposed for those who do currently support him, for that matter?

Say workers do join the movement at Mr. Mousavi’s behest. Great—what’s the next step? Let’s say workers not previously involved in the Green Movement now join the ranks of supporters of the wartime prime minister. The invite is not to drink tea—what are they supposed to do? Should they, as Mr. Mousavi proposes in his Nourouz message, take up the path of “patience and perseverance” at their factories and workshops? Or, as he has suggested elsewhere, should every worker transform himself into a local “leader” for the movement? If that’s the case, why not leave the choice of whether to participate or not, or how to participate, in the movement up to these “autonomous leaders”?

My point, in effect, is that before we start thinking about the nature of the involvement of various groups in the Green Movement, we must think about the leadership of such a social movement. As long as the movement’s leaders and strategies are unclear, there can be no talk of getting various groups in society to actively take part in it and fight for its victory.

Additionally, Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami are mistaken in thinking they can reduce the costs of the current struggle by venerating Ayatollah Khomeini and the [Islamic Republic] constitution. Of course, if they truly believe in such values, I’m not suggesting they forsake their beliefs. They are entitled to their view, and every person fights for the ideals that he believes in.

The point, however, is that for the regressive-minded ruling clique, the sole qualification for remaining a “regime insider” is loyalty and unconditional surrender to the hardliner Guards and Ayatollah Khamenei (which of them controls the other is another story!). By this token, there is not much difference between Mousavi and Karrubi, who openly declare their loyalty to Khomeini’s ideals and the Islamic Republic’s constitution, and diaspora opposition groups such as Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son, or the United Republicans of Iran.

Who has treated the establishment, the constitution, and the Supreme Leader more respectfully in these years than Mr. Khatami? What was his fate? An important point to note is that these [Reformist] statesmen’s lovely words—although they show commendable resistance and deserve appreciation—are not enough; they must break existing taboos with outspoken courage and thus fulfill their roles as the movement’s true leaders by guiding the way forward.

Tahavori: Mr. Mousavi says this year the Green Movement must focus on attracting the labor and teachers’ movements and other social classes. Isn’t that showing leadership and setting a general path for the movement?

Assadi: That’s not leadership; that’s stating the obvious. The role of a leader is to mobilize and organize forces, set effective strategy and provide a plan for the struggle. A leader who strategizes and guides the way, says, for instance, “People, we will march on so-and-so date to state our demand and nonviolent mission for free elections. If the government does not respond, we will increase our demands in the next demonstration.”

To claim that the Green Movement must bond with other movements but to leave it vague that after such bonding takes place, who does what and which strategies will be implemented, is certainly not leadership. In circumstances of severe repression, lovely words appear to symbolize resistance and courage, but they are insufficient and will never lead the movement to victory.

Tahavori: As a political activist and an economist, what strategy would you suggest the labor movement should follow?

Assadi: I’d need more time to answer that! But I can say that under the present conditions, the labor, students, and women’s movements will never achieve their demands until they part ways with the tyranny of the ruling regime. As long as the balance of powers are titled to the advantage of corrupt and dictatorial hardliners, no social demands will ever be met.

The labor movement is no exception. Today, workers are up against a regime that is unresponsive and ignores the wants of its people.

Let me add a last point. A vital condition for the success of the Greens is for them to impose the rules of the game on their opponent. They will lose the game if resistance figures continue to self-censor based on the pretext of “lessening the toll of the struggle”--to the point that they refrain from naming specific names in the dictatorial regime. Aren’t these leaders tired of having to prove to the regime’s ruling bullies day after day that they do not oppose the Islamic Republic and its constitution, and that they are not foreign stooges?

Tahavori: The question remains, how can workers continue the struggle at present? As you mentioned, the labor movement has been quite active in recent years. But due to the government’s fears that the Green Movement will return to the streets, workers and teachers will no longer be allowed to have their own peaceful protests. It even seems improbable that the state-sponsored march for Labor Day, which was organized by the Workers’ House [the official labor unions] every year, will be held this year.

Assadi: That’s a great question and it reflects what I’ve been saying. Your question illustrates the fact that while the balance of power rests with the hardliners, workers will not even be able to celebrate May Day—much less have the freedom to form unions to protect their rights and receive their wages on time!

In any case, I believe all defenders of freedom should march on May Day to demand freedom and to symbolically show their support for the demands of workers in the framework of the larger struggle for democracy. The first of May, May Day (International Labor Day), should be recorded in history as another successful day for the Greens, even better than Nov. 4 and Student’s Day … why not!

It is also important for the Iranian diaspora to mark this day. They should work to raise awareness among international labor organizations about the widespread repression of workers in Iran, and thereby give Iran’s labor movement hope for a better tomorrow.
Sunday
Apr252010

Iran: Hyping the Threat from Tehran (Walt)

Stephen Walt writes for Foreign Policy:

Back when I started writing this blog, I warned that the idea of preventive war against Iran wasn't going to go away just because Barack Obama was president. The topic got another little burst of oxygen over the past few days, in response to what seems to have been an over-hyped memorandum from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and some remarks by the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, following a speech at Columbia University. In particular, Mullen noted that military action against Iran could "go a long way" toward delaying Iran's acquisition of a weapons capability, though he also noted this could only be a "last resort" and made it clear it was not an option he favored.

One of the more remarkable features about the endless drumbeat of alarm about Iran is that it pays virtually no attention to Iran's actual capabilities, and rests on all sorts of worst case assumptions about Iranian behavior. Consider the following facts, most of them courtesy of the 2010 edition ofThe Military Balance, published annually by the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies in London:



GDP: United States -- 13.8 trillion
Iran --$ 359 billion  (U.S. GDP is roughly 38 times greater than Iran's)

Defense spending (2008):
U.S. -- $692 billion
Iran -- $9.6 billion (U.S. defense budget is over 70 times larger than Iran)

Military personnel:
U.S.--1,580,255 active; 864,547 reserves (very well trained)
Iran--   525,000 active; 350,000 reserves (poorly trained)

Combat aircraft:
U.S. -- 4,090 (includes USAF, USN, USMC and reserves)
Iran -- 312 (serviceability questionable)

Main battle tanks:
U.S. -- 6,251 (Army + Marine Corps)
Iran -- 1,613 (serviceability questionable)

Navy:
U.S. -- 11 aircraft carriers, 99 principal surface combatants, 71 submarines, 160 patrol boats, plus large auxiliary fleet
Iran -- 6 principal surface combatants, 10 submarines, 146 patrol boats

Nuclear weapons:
U.S. -- 2,702 deployed, >6,000 in reserve
Iran -- Zero

One might add that Iran hasn't invaded anyone since the Islamic revolution, although it has supported a number of terrorist organizations and engaged in various forms of covert action.  The United States has also backed terrorist groups and conducted covert ops during this same period, and attacked a number of other countries, including Panama, Grenada, Serbia, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq (twice), and Afghanistan.

By any objective measure, therefore, Iran isn't even on the same page with the United States in terms of latent power, deployed capabilities, or the willingness to use them. Indeed, Iran is significantly weaker than Israel, which has roughly the same toal of regular plus reserve military personnel and vastly superior training. Israel also has more numerous and modern armored and air capabilities and a sizeable nuclear weapons stockpile of its own. Iran has no powerful allies, scant power-projection capability, and little ideological appeal. Despite what some alarmists think, Iran is not the reincarnation of Nazi Germany and not about to unleash some new Holocaust against anyone.

The more one thinks about it, the odder our obsession with Iran appears. It's a pretty unloveable regime, to be sure, but given Iran's actual capabilities, why do U.S. leaders devote so much time and effort trying to corral support for more economic sanctions (which aren't going to work) or devising strategies to "contain" an Iran that shows no sign of being able to expand in any meaningful way? Even the danger that a future Iranian bomb might set off some sort of regional arms race seems exaggerated, according to an unpublished dissertation by Philipp Bleek of Georgetown University. Bleek's thesis examines the history of nuclear acquisition since 1945 and finds little evidence for so-called "reactive proliferation." If he's right, it suggests that Iran's neighbors might not follow suit even if Iran did "go nuclear" at some point in the future).

Obviously, simple bean counts like the one presented above do not tell you everything about the two countries, or the political challenges that Iran might pose to its neighbors. Iran has engaged in a number of actions that are cause for concern (such as its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon), and it has some capacity to influence events in Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, as we have learned in both of these countries, objectively weaker adversaries can still mount serious counterinsurgency operations against a foreign occupier. And if attacked, Iran does have various retaliatory options that we would find unpleasant, such as attacking shipping in the Persian Gulf. So Iran's present weakness does not imply that the United States can go ahead and bomb it with impunity.

What it does mean is that we ought to keep this relatively minor "threat" in perspective, and not allow the usual threat-inflators to stampede us into another unnecessary war. My impression is that Admiral Mullen and SecDef Gates understand this. I hope I'm right. But I'm still puzzled as to why the Obama administration hasn't tried the one strategy that might actually get somewhere: take the threat of force off the table, tell Tehran that we are willing to talk seriously about the issues that bother them (as well as the items that bother us), and try to cut a deal whereby Iran ratifies and implements the NPT Additional Protocol and is then permitted to enrich uranium for legitimate purposes (but not to weapons-grade levels). It might not work, of course, but neither will our present course of action or the "last resort" that Mullen referred to last weekend.
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