Kyrgyzstan Analysis: What Brought On the Colourless Revolution? (Madlena)

Chavala Madlena writes for EA:

As the dust settled on Day 2 of the Kyrgyz "Tulip Revolution: 2.0", an eyewitness said: "We would not rush to name this victory: people are killed and injured, the aggressive and drunk people are walking around the cities, private houses and shops are being looted. The opposition forces seized the power and immediately started portfolio distribution. President Bakiyev disappeared. The south of the republic is waiting for continuation. Nothing is over yet."

Kyrgyzstan LiveBlog: Latest from the Uprising

With 75 people dead and more than 500 injured so far, it is difficult to believe that the Bakiyev Presidency was swept in during a relatively peaceful 'Tulip Revolution" just five years ago. However, ordinary Kyrgyz living with astronomical price increases in utilities and goods, fraudulent elections, and endemic corruption, five years is a long time.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev was swept in during a wave of protests that broke out in response to fraudulent elections in March 2005 under then-President Askar Akayev. This was quickly labelled the 'Tulip Revolution", a romanticised term insipired by the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the Rose Revolution in Georgia.


Akayev was former Politburo appointee and the poster-child for Central Asian nepotism. Bakiev soon secured 88% of the vote (though the standards for the initial July 2005 elections fell short of international standards) and was seen as a liberalising, unifying force, coming from the south of the country.

The "Tulip Revolution" soon proved as quixotic as it sounded, and the weak US response to an increasingly undemocratic Kyrgyzstan was accompanied by a growing dependence on the Manas airbase for the war in Afghanistan. Bakiev's Presidency was distinguished by increased powers for the executive, murders of several journalists and opposition politicians, and severe economic problems.

Much of the English-language reportage on the events in Kyrgyzstan has mainly focused on the old narrative of the tussle between Russia and the US for this "strategic" ex-Soviet Republic. But pointing to the Kremlin as the force behind this regime change ignores the other socio-economic and geopolitical factors at play in Bakiyev's disasterous turn as president.

Yet an American military presence in Russia's backyard has been a bone of diplomatic contention. Russia has been putting pressure on successive Kyrgyz governments since the Americans arrived in December 2001, establishing Manas as a back-up to the Karshi-Khanabad base in Uzbekistan at the start of the war in Afghanistan.

After a violent uprising in the Uzbek town of Andijan was put down by force in May 2005, Islam Karimov, the authoritarian president, expelled the Americans. Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns had dared to suggest an international probe into the massacre of civilians who had been protesting poverty, repression, and corruption.

"We always think ahead. We'll be fine," said Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld . However, the US loss of the Karshi-Khanabad airbase ( "Stronghold Freedom") left Manas as the only location in Central Asia for support of operations in Afghanistan.

Over the past year, Bakiyev has been hedging his bets that US negotiations with Uzbekistan to re-instate a military base would collapse. This proved to be a correct assumption, and the Obama Administration not only agreed to the increase in rent from $17.4 to $60 million per year, but continued to turn a blind eye to the corruption running amok. Kevin Gash, former US Agency for International Development officer in Kabul and now resident in Bishkek, also emphasises the "lukewarm response" after the 2008 Kyrgyz presidential elections were labelled fraudulent by European observers.

Still, although the Kyrgyz legislature passed a bill to close the base in February 2009, the decision was reversed by June, and President Obama was sending letters of praise to Bakiyev. Manas has now become a symbol of corruption and broken promises and, from an American perspective, more precarious than ever.

So what about the Russians? The sudden duties Moscow slapped on oil imports, now up to $193.5 per ton for gasoline and diesel fuel, and the subsequent sky-rocketing of prices arguably pushed Bakiyev's government to the brink.

This is not the first time Bakiyev has faced protests; in 2006 and 2007 he faced opposition-led demonstrations against his constitutional changes. However, the recent price hikes in oil duties were another stick against him, wielded after Bakiyev failed to take the carrot of a $1.7 billion package to rescue a hydroelectric station in the south of the country, offered in return for an expulsion of the US.

Bakiyev may have thought he bought himself some time with the electorate and opposition by playing off the US and Russia against each other, however, the gains never translated into investment or infrastructure. The old Soviet system of blat (corruption) and nepotism reared its head when it was discovered that Bakiyev's son was given supply contracts with the Manas base last year.

Still, each of the expat Kyrgyz and Bishkek residents I have spoken to today say that there was little talk of Manas these last few days (except to speculate whether or not Bakiyev was hiding on it).

Unlike 2005, this uprising was not a bubbling up of demands for democratic freedoms. This was first and foremost a backlash against the economic situation and corruption.

What is confirmed now is that Kyrgyzstan has its first female President, Roza Otunbayeva. Her party, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, are demanding constitutional reform, a change in the tax system, an independent media and judiciary, and foreign investment, especially in agriculture.

The record of Otunbayeva, a former Foreign Minister, is mostly as a diplomat in the UK and US. Her newly formed cabinet is made up of key figures from other opposition parties, notably Almazbek Atambaev, Temir Sariev, Azimbek Beknazarov and Omurbek Tekebaev (an ardent opponent of former President Akayev).

Those with access to Internet continue to tweet and blog about continued looting, and rumours abound about the whereabouts of Bakiev. Otunbayeva has been stressing the need for calm and giving assurances, via her Twitter account as well as local media, that the interim government will be restoring order,

Neither Bakiyev or US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Tatiana C. Gfoeller have Twitter accounts although the US Embassy in Bishkek does have a website. The homepage was not updated on Thursday, but a press release on Wednesday stated, "The embassy strongly endorses the April 6 statement of the Secretary General of the UN calling for restraint and immediate dialogue aimed at lowering tensions."

This was ollowed by the second important matter: "Milly and Macy's Parade Book Launch in Kyrgyz".

The business of the American Embassy in Bishkek may take a considerably more sober tone in days to come.

Comments

[China C.]

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