Latest from Iraq: When Violence Goes Beyond "Violent Semi-Peace"

In January, just after the US Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq, we had a go at the construction in The New York Times of a "violent semi-peace". It seemed to us that the authors were trying to salvage a back-slapping congratulations of a US accomplishment even though violence and political instability were likely to continue in Iraq.

After the series of bombing in the last 48 hours that have killed more than 150 people, it is not a question of returning to that exchange with a "see, we told you so". The situation is far too serious for that.

Juan Cole, as always, has been incisive in his analysis, noting that there has been almost 30 major bombings in Iraq this month. Yesterday's assault on the shrine of Imam Musa al-Kazim in northern Baghdad is "much more dangerous", however, because of the symbolism: Musa Kazim is the seventh of twelve Imams for Shi'a. If the shrine had been destroyed, the incident could have sparked retaliations such as those that followed the destruction of the Samarra mosque in 2006.

The concern has an eerie feel this morning as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has landed in Baghdad has landed for a surprise visit. Her assurance --- in the manner of January's New York Times --- that Iraq is "on the right track" is to be expected.

What is more disturbing is her blame of "rejectionist efforts" for violence: that is uncomfortably close to Donald Rumsfeld's confidence in 2003 that it was only "dead-enders" causing trouble in Iraq.

Iraq Update: US Awakening Ally Arrested for “Terrorism”, Siege Continues

On Sunday, we reported on the arrest of Adil al-Mashhadani, an Awakening Council leader in the Fadhil section of Baghdad, and the subsequent gunfight between Council militiamen and US-Iraq forces.

Well, the story is far from over.

Juan Cole passes on the news from the Arabic-language newspaper Al Zaman that Iraqi troops still have the Fadhil district under siege of the Sunni Fadl district. According to the paper, diseases are spreading amongst women and children with the blockade and curfew.

Beyond Fadhil, al-Mashhadani's arrest is threating a breakdown between the Councils and the Iraqi Government. The Awakening Council leader in Baquba in Diyala province has said that he will stop fighting "extremists". US military officers were calling Sunni contacts, promising that they will be defended against both a Government crackdown and will not be abandon to the mercy of Shi'a militias.

The Fadhil episode is graphic testimony to both the difficulties, swept away in the myth of the American "surge", of General David Petraeus' counter-insurgency strategy and the flawed logic of those who insist that US troops have to remain in Iraq to prevent instability.

Thomas Ricks, the Washington Post correspondent who wrote about the fiasco of the US invasion of Iraq but is now a firm proponent of stay-the-military course, wonderfully and ironically demonstrated this in a tangled blog on Tuesday.

Ricks quotes Colonel Pete Mansoor, who was Petraeus's executive officer:

The Status of Forces agreement [of December 2008] would put U.S. forces into a position where they could not intervene to stop the government of Iraq from attacking the SOI [the Awakening Councils or "Sons of Iraq"]. If the Iraqi Security Forces needed help once engaged against the SOI, U.S. forces could be drawn into the fight against the very people who helped us turn the war around.

I certainly hope this doesn't come to pass, but given what we've just seen happen in Baghdad, the possibility is disturbing.

Ricks might draw the obvious conclusion that to bolster its presence in Iraq, the US military struck political deals that are now running aground in the battles between local leaders and the national Government. Instead, he stands logic on its head: the US military needs to stay as more political deals are struck, quoting Joost Hilterman of the International Crisis Group:

Absent the glue that US troops have provided, Iraq's political actors are likely to fight, emboldened by a sense they can prevail, if necessary with outside help. Obama should make sure that the peace he leaves behind is sustainable, lest Bush's war of choice turn into his war of necessity.

And so the Alice-in-Wonderland rationale of occupation continues: if the US stays, it will be entangled in more violence --- but it must stay to prevent more violence.