Analysis: Obama Talks with Iraq Prime Minister Al-Maliki

President Obama's meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki at US Camp Victory in Baghdad was a brief one, and the aftermath is more spin than substance.

The Obama camp initially put out the message that "Obama 'strongly encouraged' the Iraqi leader to take steps to unite political factions, including integrating Sunnis into the government and security forces". The President himself then put out the on-the-record statement, ""They have got to make political accommodations. They're going to have to decide that they want to resolve their differences through constitutional means and legal means."

As we have been noting, and as some of the US press are now realising, there is a serious tension between the local Sunni groups and Awakening Councils that the US military has been funding in the "surge" and the national Government.

A misleading follow-up in The New York Times today focuses on an audiotape by Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, a former deputy of Saddam Hussein, who is the last high-ranking fugitive from the American forces, which calls Iraqis to overthrow the al-Maliki Government and restore the Baath Party to power. Al-Maliki in turn blamed "Baathists" for a series of car bombings in Baghdad.

The issue isn't "Baathists"; it's highly unlikely that the Iraqi people will welcome the political resurrection of Saddam's loyalists. The label instead deflects from the possibilities that 1) Al Qa'eda in Iraq is far from a spent force, a fear raised by Iraqi President Jalal Talebani on Tuesday, or, more seriously, 2) that an increasingly violent showdown between Sunni parties and the Iraqi Prime Minister.

It is unclear what Obama's private words or public pressure can do to deflect the second scenario, especially if al-Maliki is determined to face down those he sees as Sunni political rivals and militias. The Iraqi Prime Minister limited his comments after the meeting with Obama to the terse statement, ""Dialogue should be the only way to resolve any issue, whether it was among components of Iraqi society or in the region."

Video and Transcript: President Obama in Iraq

UPDATED: Obama Talks with Iraq Prime Minister

Barack Obama made a "surprise" visit to Iraq today after his tour of Europe. The trip seems to be more of a publicity set-piece, with the President "confined" to Camp Victory because weather conditions made it impossible to take a helicopter into central Baghdad. Obama did have a discussion with General Raymond Odierno, the commander of US forces in Iraq, before speaking to American troops. Obama's advisors also said the President would be meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki at the US base.



OBAMA: This is going to be a critical period, these next 18 months.

I was just discussing this with your commander, but I think it's something that all of you know. It is time for us to transition to the Iraqis. (Applause.) They need to take responsibility for their country and for their sovereignty. (Applause.) And in order for them to do that, they have got to make political accommodations. They're going to have to decide that they want to resolve their differences through constitutional means and legal means. They are going to have to focus on providing government services that encourage confidence among their citizens. All those things they have to do. We can't do it for them. But what we can do is make sure that we are a stalwart partner....

And so just as we thank you for what you've already accomplished, I want to say thank you because you will be critical in terms of us being able to make sure that Iraq is stable, that it is not a safe haven for terrorists, that it is a good neighbor and a good ally, and we can start bringing our folks home. ... The last point I want to make is I know how hard it's been on a lot of you. You've been away from your families, many of you for multiple rotations. You've seen buddies of yours injured and you remember those who have made the ultimate sacrifice.

AUDIENCE: Ooh-ah.

OBAMA: There are probably some people here who have seen children born and have been missing watching them grow up. There are many of you who have listened to your spouse and the extraordinary sacrifices that they have to make when you're gone.

And so I want you to know that Michelle and myself are doing everything -- (applause) -- are doing everything we can to provide additional support for military families. The federal budget that I have introduced increases support for military families. We are going to do everything required to make sure that the commitment we make to our veterans is met, and that people don't have to fight for what they have earned as a consequence of their service.

The main point I want to make is we have not forgotten what you have already done, we are grateful for what you will do, and as long as I am in the White House, you are going to get the support that you need and the thanks that you deserve from a grateful nation.